ilmscore | Patrick Boyle

Predictions (2025)

Prediction

Quote

Status

Elon Musk predicts most jobs will eventually become optional hobbies due to AI.

Elon Musk – who spent billions of dollars on AI so that he could have a cartoon girlfriend says that most jobs will eventually become “optional,” comparable to hobbies like playing sports or gardening.

2 months ago Pending

Elon Musk predicts most jobs will eventually become optional hobbies due to AI.

Pending

Zeke Faux predicts Bitcoin's price has a fundamental floor due to its dedicated, cult-like fanbase that will refuse to sell.

Zeke argued that Bitcoin has developed a fan base as committed and impervious to outside criticism as the Juggalos... They are a cult – according to Zeke - that puts a floor on the asset price, simply by refusing to leave.

2 months ago Pending

Zeke Faux predicts Bitcoin's price has a fundamental floor due to its dedicated, cult-like fanbase that will refuse to sell.

Pending

If Bitcoin price does not recover, MicroStrategy is predicted to face significant financial challenges starting in 2027 when its convertible debt matures, potentially forcing it to sell its Bitcoin holdings due to a lack of alternative income.

For Strategy – if there is no recovery in the price of bitcoin, the real pain will begin in 2027, when the firm’s convertible debt starts to mature. Its borrowing – right now - is modest relative to its assets; but, its lack of alternative sources of income may force it to start selling its bitcoin.

2 months ago Pending

Pending

Individuals hired through a 'sell me a pen' interview technique in the finance industry (excluding stationery sales roles) will likely experience legal repercussions, such as incarceration or testifying against their interviewer.

If you are being interviewed for a job (that is not at a stationary store) and the interviewer is asking you to sell them a pen - there’s a really good chance that if you get the job, you’ll either end up in jail or testifying against the person interviewing you.

8 months ago Pending

Pending

If Section 899 passes, it would be implemented on January 1, 2026.

If the law passed it would be implemented on January first next year.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 passes, it would be implemented on January 1, 2026.

If the law passed it would be implemented on January first next year.

Pending

Section 899 would immediately raise the cost of investment in the US for foreign entities, leading to reduced inbound investment, a smaller US capital stock, lower labor productivity, and reduced wages.

The immediate effect of these taxes would be to raise the cost of investment in the United States for foreign-resident individuals or corporations. A higher cost of capital would reduce inbound investment, shrink the US capital stock, reduce labor productivity, and reduce wages.

8 months ago Pending

Pending

Actions like Section 899 are likely to undermine global trust in the United States.

this is another action that is likely to undermine global trust in the United States

8 months ago Pending

Actions like Section 899 are likely to undermine global trust in the United States.

this is another action that is likely to undermine global trust in the United States

Pending

JD Vance believes that imposing Section 899 could raise trillions of dollars in revenues.

some – like JD Vance - love the idea of imposing revenge taxes on foreigners, as it will play well with the Maga base – and he believes that it could raise trillions of dollars in revenues.

8 months ago Pending

JD Vance believes that imposing Section 899 could raise trillions of dollars in revenues.

some – like JD Vance - love the idea of imposing revenge taxes on foreigners, as it will play well with the Maga base – and he believes that it could raise trillions of dollars in revenues.

Pending

If Section 899 is enacted, the pool of available capital for US businesses seeking to raise funds would dry up.

the pool of available capital would dry up.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 is enacted, the pool of available capital for US businesses seeking to raise funds would dry up.

the pool of available capital would dry up.

Pending

US investors might see interest rates for businesses they invest in rise as those businesses are forced to gross up payments to foreign lenders under Section 899.

see the interest rates the businesses they invest in rise – as they are forced to gross up foreign lenders.

8 months ago Pending

US investors might see interest rates for businesses they invest in rise as those businesses are forced to gross up payments to foreign lenders under Section 899.

see the interest rates the businesses they invest in rise – as they are forced to gross up foreign lenders.

Pending

US investors might see their investment values fall as foreign investors sell due to Section 899.

US investors either – as they might see the value of their investments fall as foreign investors sell

8 months ago Pending

US investors might see their investment values fall as foreign investors sell due to Section 899.

US investors either – as they might see the value of their investments fall as foreign investors sell

Pending

If Section 899 becomes law, international investors may reduce their exposure to US assets before the tax is implemented.

if section 899 becomes law – they might want to reduce their exposure to US assets before the tax is actually implemented.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 becomes law, international investors may reduce their exposure to US assets before the tax is implemented.

if section 899 becomes law – they might want to reduce their exposure to US assets before the tax is actually implemented.

Pending

Companies in countries targeted by Section 899 could redomicile to another country to avoid the US tax.

companies located in countries targeted by section 899 could choose to redomicile in a different country to avoid being taxed.

8 months ago Pending

Companies in countries targeted by Section 899 could redomicile to another country to avoid the US tax.

companies located in countries targeted by section 899 could choose to redomicile in a different country to avoid being taxed.

Pending

If Section 899 is enacted, US companies might reduce or eliminate dividends and switch to stock buybacks to retain foreign investors.

If section 899 was enacted - US companies could decide to reduce or eliminate dividends and switch to stock buybacks instead in order to avoid losing their foreign investors.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 is enacted, US companies might reduce or eliminate dividends and switch to stock buybacks to retain foreign investors.

If section 899 was enacted - US companies could decide to reduce or eliminate dividends and switch to stock buybacks instead in order to avoid losing their foreign investors.

Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts Section 899 would likely reduce government revenues (rather than raise them) by scaring off foreign investors and lowering American asset prices.

Section 899 is a rare tax hike on the wrong side of the Laffer Curve (meaning that it is a tax hike that would likely reduce rather than raise revenues). The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts that the provision would start to lose the government money by scaring off foreign investors and therefore lowering American asset prices.

8 months ago Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts Section 899 would likely reduce government revenues (rather than raise them) by scaring off foreign investors and lowering American asset prices.

Pending

The Wall Street Journal suggests Section 899 is a negotiating tool and will never go into force.

The Wall Street Journal has argued that Section 899 is just a negotiating tool and that US lawmakers don’t actually want to collect any revenue from it, suggesting that it will never go into force.

8 months ago Pending

The Wall Street Journal suggests Section 899 is a negotiating tool and will never go into force.

The Wall Street Journal has argued that Section 899 is just a negotiating tool and that US lawmakers don’t actually want to collect any revenue from it, suggesting that it will never go into force.

Pending

The author predicts that Big Tech's 'non-acquisition acquisitions' in AI are unlikely to be stopped by regulators anytime soon.

it is not obvious to me that they will be stopped anytime soon.

8 months ago Pending

The author predicts that Big Tech's 'non-acquisition acquisitions' in AI are unlikely to be stopped by regulators anytime soon.

it is not obvious to me that they will be stopped anytime soon.

Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation projects Section 899 would raise $116 billion in revenue over the next decade.

the Joint Committee on Taxation, Section 899 would raise $116 billion dollars over the next decade

8 months ago Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation projects Section 899 would raise $116 billion in revenue over the next decade.

the Joint Committee on Taxation, Section 899 would raise $116 billion dollars over the next decade

Pending

Regulators are predicted to potentially shut down Big Tech's 'non-acquisition acquisitions' in AI if these deals are found to be harming competition.

regulators do appear to already be “on to what’s going on” and could shut these deals down if they appeared to be harming competition in the industry.

8 months ago Pending

Regulators are predicted to potentially shut down Big Tech's 'non-acquisition acquisitions' in AI if these deals are found to be harming competition.

regulators do appear to already be “on to what’s going on” and could shut these deals down if they appeared to be harming competition in the industry.

Pending

The AI industry is predicted to remain extremely competitive with little pricing power in the near future, without a single dominant company emerging.

meaning that there may not be a dominant AI company in the near future and that the industry could instead remain extremely competitive with very little pricing power.

8 months ago Pending

The AI industry is predicted to remain extremely competitive with little pricing power in the near future, without a single dominant company emerging.

meaning that there may not be a dominant AI company in the near future and that the industry could instead remain extremely competitive with very little pricing power.

Pending

Faced with trade and tax chaos, executives making large investment decisions will likely delay new investments and wait for clarity.

it probably makes sense for them to hold off on that investment and wait for clarity.

8 months ago Pending

Faced with trade and tax chaos, executives making large investment decisions will likely delay new investments and wait for clarity.

it probably makes sense for them to hold off on that investment and wait for clarity.

Pending

The cumulative effect of Big Tech's 'non-acquisition acquisitions' is expected to reshape competition within the AI industry.

their cumulative effect can without a doubt be expected to reshape competition within an industry.

8 months ago Pending

The cumulative effect of Big Tech's 'non-acquisition acquisitions' is expected to reshape competition within the AI industry.

their cumulative effect can without a doubt be expected to reshape competition within an industry.

Pending

If Section 891 causes capital flight, a full year would pass before the measure could be repealed.

if Section 891 causes capital flight – a full year has to go by before it is repealed.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 891 causes capital flight, a full year would pass before the measure could be repealed.

if Section 891 causes capital flight – a full year has to go by before it is repealed.

Pending

Meta is predicted to be allowed to retain its metaverse assets and AI glasses even if it loses the FTC antitrust case, due to their limited usage by others.

They would – most likely – still be allowed to hold on to the metaverse and those creepy AI glasses that Zuckerberg wears with the built-in cameras – just because nobody else actually uses them.

8 months ago Pending

Meta is predicted to be allowed to retain its metaverse assets and AI glasses even if it loses the FTC antitrust case, due to their limited usage by others.

Pending

Meta is predicted to be forced to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp if it loses the ongoing FTC antitrust case.

If Meta loses this antitrust case - the company could be forced to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp.

8 months ago Pending

Meta is predicted to be forced to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp if it loses the ongoing FTC antitrust case.

If Meta loses this antitrust case - the company could be forced to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp.

Pending

Section 899 would put pressure on the US Dollar.

Morgan Stanley say that Section 899 would put pressure on the dollar

8 months ago Pending

Section 899 would put pressure on the US Dollar.

Morgan Stanley say that Section 899 would put pressure on the dollar

Pending

Elon Musk (or someone he amplified) predicted that Donald Trump's global tariff plan would cause a US recession.

Trumps global tariff plan would trigger a US recession

8 months ago Pending

Elon Musk (or someone he amplified) predicted that Donald Trump's global tariff plan would cause a US recession.

Trumps global tariff plan would trigger a US recession

Pending

If Section 899 proceeds, it will definitively reduce foreign investment in the United States.

If this goes forward, it will definitely cool foreign investment in the United States.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 proceeds, it will definitively reduce foreign investment in the United States.

If this goes forward, it will definitely cool foreign investment in the United States.

Pending

The speaker predicts that if Elon Musk was instrumental in Donald Trump's political success, Trump's political career is likely to fail, based on a perceived pattern of failure in Musk's ventures.

if Musk is right in saying that he made Trump – Trump should probably be a little bit nervous – as it has become somewhat noticeable over the years that everything Elon Musk makes – burns to the ground.

8 months ago Pending

The speaker predicts that if Elon Musk was instrumental in Donald Trump's political success, Trump's political career is likely to fail, based on a perceived pattern of failure in Musk's ventures.

Pending

If the 5% Section 899 tax hike is applied, US companies with gross-up obligations to foreign lenders would face an effective 5.3% increase in additional interest payments.

they would find themselves paying 5.3% in additional interest if this 5% tax hike was applied.

8 months ago Pending

If the 5% Section 899 tax hike is applied, US companies with gross-up obligations to foreign lenders would face an effective 5.3% increase in additional interest payments.

they would find themselves paying 5.3% in additional interest if this 5% tax hike was applied.

Pending

Doge Designer predicted that legacy media would report a breakdown in the friendship between Trump and Musk, explaining Musk's departure from his government role.

In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.

8 months ago Pending

Doge Designer predicted that legacy media would report a breakdown in the friendship between Trump and Musk, explaining Musk's departure from his government role.

In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.

Pending

US Treasuries are likely to be exempted from Section 899.

it seems likely that Treasuries would be exempted from Section 899, but that is not yet certain.

8 months ago Pending

US Treasuries are likely to be exempted from Section 899.

it seems likely that Treasuries would be exempted from Section 899, but that is not yet certain.

Pending

The speaker speculates that Mark Zuckerberg might be emerging as a figure with similar influence or public perception to Elon Musk.

is it possible that by disguising himself with baggy clothes and gold chains – Zuckerberg managed to slip under the radar – and is becoming the new Elon Musk? We’ll have to wait and see.

8 months ago Pending

The speaker speculates that Mark Zuckerberg might be emerging as a figure with similar influence or public perception to Elon Musk.

is it possible that by disguising himself with baggy clothes and gold chains – Zuckerberg managed to slip under the radar – and is becoming the new Elon Musk? We’ll have to wait and see.

Pending

Elon Musk predicted 250,000 Cybertrucks would be sold in the first year of production.

Elon Musk predicted that he would sell 250,000 Cybertrucks in the first year – after all he had taken a million deposits

8 months ago Pending

Elon Musk predicted 250,000 Cybertrucks would be sold in the first year of production.

Elon Musk predicted that he would sell 250,000 Cybertrucks in the first year – after all he had taken a million deposits

Pending

If Section 899 applies to US Treasury bonds, their yield would fall by approximately 1%, making them unattractive to foreign investors.

If it did [apply to treasury bonds], the yield on treasuries would fall by around 1% making them unattractive to foreign investors.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 applies to US Treasury bonds, their yield would fall by approximately 1%, making them unattractive to foreign investors.

If it did [apply to treasury bonds], the yield on treasuries would fall by around 1% making them unattractive to foreign investors.

Pending

If Section 899 passes, foreign firms are unlikely to invest new money in the US if their returns would be taxed at a 50% rate.

I can’t imagine that if Section 899 is passed into law that any foreign firms will be moving money into the United States to have their returns taxed at a 50% rate.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 passes, foreign firms are unlikely to invest new money in the US if their returns would be taxed at a 50% rate.

I can’t imagine that if Section 899 is passed into law that any foreign firms will be moving money into the United States to have their returns taxed at a 50% rate.

Pending

Many announced foreign investment projects in the US are likely to be halted due to business uncertainty.

whether these announced investments are genuinely new or not, many of the projects are likely to be scuppered because of business uncertainty

8 months ago Pending

Many announced foreign investment projects in the US are likely to be halted due to business uncertainty.

whether these announced investments are genuinely new or not, many of the projects are likely to be scuppered because of business uncertainty

Pending

If Section 899 reduces foreign demand for US Treasuries, the US government would have to pay higher interest rates to sell them, negating the tax's effect.

If this tax reduces demand for treasuries – and the US still wants to sell them – they will have to pay a higher interest rate – which would just negate the tax

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 reduces foreign demand for US Treasuries, the US government would have to pay higher interest rates to sell them, negating the tax's effect.

If this tax reduces demand for treasuries – and the US still wants to sell them – they will have to pay a higher interest rate – which would just negate the tax

Pending

US debt interest payments will increase, and rise even more significantly if the US passes laws allowing the president to arbitrarily target investors.

As the country borrows more – this will rise – and it will rise even more if the US starts passing laws that allow the president to target investors on a whim.

8 months ago Pending

US debt interest payments will increase, and rise even more significantly if the US passes laws allowing the president to arbitrarily target investors.

As the country borrows more – this will rise – and it will rise even more if the US starts passing laws that allow the president to target investors on a whim.

Pending

The passage of the Section 899 tax legislation could make dollar assets less valuable for foreign investors.

Emmanuel Cau at Barclays suggested in a note that the mere passage of the tax legislation could make dollar assets less valuable for foreign investors.

8 months ago Pending

The passage of the Section 899 tax legislation could make dollar assets less valuable for foreign investors.

Emmanuel Cau at Barclays suggested in a note that the mere passage of the tax legislation could make dollar assets less valuable for foreign investors.

Pending

If Section 899 is enacted, the US President could increase withholding taxes on dividends and interest on US stocks and bonds by 5% annually for four years, reaching up to 50%.

if enacted, The US President would be able to apply an increase in taxes on dividends and interest on US stocks and bonds by 5 percent per year for four years – which would raise that withholding tax to as much as 50%.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 is enacted, the US President could increase withholding taxes on dividends and interest on US stocks and bonds by 5% annually for four years, reaching up to 50%.

Pending

The Alberto Giacometti sculpture "Grand Tetons" was predicted to sell for at least $70 million at auction.

So, this one was expected to go for at least $70 million.

9 months ago Pending

The Alberto Giacometti sculpture "Grand Tetons" was predicted to sell for at least $70 million at auction.

So, this one was expected to go for at least $70 million.

Pending

Art insiders predicted that the spring 2025 auction sales would be troubled.

art insiders had already been predicting that the spring sales would be troubled months ago

9 months ago Pending

Art insiders predicted that the spring 2025 auction sales would be troubled.

art insiders had already been predicting that the spring sales would be troubled months ago

Pending

The Alberto Giacometti sculpture 'Grand Tetons' was expected to sell for at least $70 million at auction. (It failed to sell).

So, this one was expected to go for at least $70 million.

9 months ago Pending

The Alberto Giacometti sculpture 'Grand Tetons' was expected to sell for at least $70 million at auction. (It failed to sell).

So, this one was expected to go for at least $70 million.

Pending

Elon Musk argued that Donald Trump's global tariff plan would cause a US recession.

...argued that Trumps global tariff plan would trigger a US recession...

8 months ago Pending

Elon Musk argued that Donald Trump's global tariff plan would cause a US recession.

...argued that Trumps global tariff plan would trigger a US recession...

Pending

Doge Designer predicted that legacy media would report on the end of Trump and Musk's friendship as the reason for Musk's departure.

In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.

8 months ago Pending

Doge Designer predicted that legacy media would report on the end of Trump and Musk's friendship as the reason for Musk's departure.

In the coming days, legacy media will try to convince you that President Trump and Elon Musk are no longer friends and that’s why Musk left.

Pending

Elon Musk predicted Tesla would sell 250,000 Cybertrucks in the first year, but actual sales were under 50,000.

Elon Musk predicted that he would sell 250,000 Cybertrucks in the first year – after all he had taken a million deposits, but Tesla ended up selling just under 50,000 cybertrucks.

8 months ago Pending

Elon Musk predicted Tesla would sell 250,000 Cybertrucks in the first year, but actual sales were under 50,000.

Elon Musk predicted that he would sell 250,000 Cybertrucks in the first year – after all he had taken a million deposits, but Tesla ended up selling just under 50,000 cybertrucks.

Pending

Moody’s predicted the US budget deficit would rise from 6.4% in 2024 to just under 9% by 2035.

In their downgrade announcement - Moody’s predicted that the US budget deficit would rise from 6.4 per cent last year to just under 9 per cent by 2035.

9 months ago Pending

Moody’s predicted the US budget deficit would rise from 6.4% in 2024 to just under 9% by 2035.

In their downgrade announcement - Moody’s predicted that the US budget deficit would rise from 6.4 per cent last year to just under 9 per cent by 2035.

Pending

Nonpartisan research groups estimate Trump's budget will add over $2.5 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade (by 2035).

While nonpartisan research groups are estimating that Trump’s budget will add more than $2.5 trillion dollars to the federal debt over the next decade

9 months ago Pending

Nonpartisan research groups estimate Trump's budget will add over $2.5 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade (by 2035).

While nonpartisan research groups are estimating that Trump’s budget will add more than $2.5 trillion dollars to the federal debt over the next decade

Pending

The Center for American Progress projects US government debt could reach 200% of GDP by 2055 if all temporary provisions of Trump's bill are permanently extended.

The Center for American Progress, a liberal research group, have published projections which assume that all of the bill’s temporary provisions get permanently extended. They say that in such a scenario government debt could reach about double the size of the economy by 2055, compared with 156 percent without any changes to the existing law.

9 months ago Pending

The Center for American Progress projects US government debt could reach 200% of GDP by 2055 if all temporary provisions of Trump's bill are permanently extended.

Pending

Trump's Council of Economic Advisers claims his bill will boost real economic growth by up to 5.2%, create/save up to 7.4 million jobs, and raise investment by up to 14.5% over the next four years (by May 2029).

His Council of Economic Advisers claims the bill will boost real economic growth by up to 5.2 per cent over the next four years, creating (or saving) up to 7.4 million jobs and raising investment by up to 14.5 percent over the next four years.

9 months ago Pending

Pending

Trump's team claims his legislation and pro-growth policies will halve the US fiscal deficit from 6.4% to 3% by the end of his term (late 2028).

Trump’s team claim that the legislation, when combined with his pro-growth policies, will halve the US fiscal deficit from its current level of 6.4 percent, to 3 percent by the end of his term.

9 months ago Pending

Trump's team claims his legislation and pro-growth policies will halve the US fiscal deficit from 6.4% to 3% by the end of his term (late 2028).

Trump’s team claim that the legislation, when combined with his pro-growth policies, will halve the US fiscal deficit from its current level of 6.4 percent, to 3 percent by the end of his term.

Pending

IMF research expects public debt to continue rising in countries like the UK, Brazil, France, Italy, and South Africa.

The UK, Brazil, France, Italy and South Africa were among the countries where debt was expected to continue rising.

9 months ago Pending

IMF research expects public debt to continue rising in countries like the UK, Brazil, France, Italy, and South Africa.

The UK, Brazil, France, Italy and South Africa were among the countries where debt was expected to continue rising.

Pending

JP Morgan research predicts Trump's trade war could reduce global GDP by 1%.

They say that the trade war could reduce global GDP by 1%.

9 months ago Pending

JP Morgan research predicts Trump's trade war could reduce global GDP by 1%.

They say that the trade war could reduce global GDP by 1%.

Pending

If Trump’s 'One Big Beautiful Bill' passes the Senate, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates US national debt will reach 129% of GDP by 2034.

If Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill act makes it through the Senate, The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that favors debt reduction, estimates that US national debt will reach 129 percent of GDP by 2034.

9 months ago Pending

If Trump’s 'One Big Beautiful Bill' passes the Senate, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates US national debt will reach 129% of GDP by 2034.

Pending

Without immigration, there will be insufficient labor for factories brought back onshore by Trump's tariffs due to declining working-age population.

without immigration there will be no one to work in all of the factories that Trumps tariffs are supposed to bring back onshore.

9 months ago Pending

Without immigration, there will be insufficient labor for factories brought back onshore by Trump's tariffs due to declining working-age population.

without immigration there will be no one to work in all of the factories that Trumps tariffs are supposed to bring back onshore.

Pending

The US debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed its 1945 high (over 100%) by May 2034, even without Trump's planned deficit spending.

Even without President Trumps planned deficit spending – as part of his budget – the US debt to GDP ratio is expected to exceed the 1945 high in nine years.

9 months ago Pending

The US debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed its 1945 high (over 100%) by May 2034, even without Trump's planned deficit spending.

Even without President Trumps planned deficit spending – as part of his budget – the US debt to GDP ratio is expected to exceed the 1945 high in nine years.

Pending

Moody's predicted the US budget deficit to rise from 6.4% in 2024 to just under 9% by 2035.

Moody’s predicted that the US budget deficit would rise from 6.4 per cent last year to just under 9 per cent by 2035.

9 months ago Pending

Moody's predicted the US budget deficit to rise from 6.4% in 2024 to just under 9% by 2035.

Moody’s predicted that the US budget deficit would rise from 6.4 per cent last year to just under 9 per cent by 2035.

Pending

The CBO predicts the US debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 98% to a record 125% by 2035.

The Congressional Budget Office (a nonpartisan federal agency whose role is to provide congress with objective analyses and estimates related to economic and budgetary decisions) is now predicting that Americas debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 98 percent where it is today to a record 125 per cent in the next decade.

9 months ago Pending

The CBO predicts the US debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 98% to a record 125% by 2035.

Pending

White House Press Secretary claims Trump's budget will save the federal government $1.6 trillion.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Budget will actually save the federal government $1.6 trillion dollars.

9 months ago Pending

White House Press Secretary claims Trump's budget will save the federal government $1.6 trillion.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that the Budget will actually save the federal government $1.6 trillion dollars.

Pending

Nonpartisan research groups estimate Trump’s budget will add over $2.5 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade (by 2035).

nonpartisan research groups are estimating that Trump’s budget will add more than $2.5 trillion dollars to the federal debt over the next decade

9 months ago Pending

Nonpartisan research groups estimate Trump’s budget will add over $2.5 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade (by 2035).

nonpartisan research groups are estimating that Trump’s budget will add more than $2.5 trillion dollars to the federal debt over the next decade

Pending

The UK budget is expected to remain in a deficit through the end of 2029.

They expect the budget to remain in a deficit through the end of the decade.

9 months ago Pending

The UK budget is expected to remain in a deficit through the end of 2029.

They expect the budget to remain in a deficit through the end of the decade.

Pending

If Section 899 passes, it is predicted to be implemented on January 1, 2026.

If the law passed it would be implemented on January first next year.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 passes, it is predicted to be implemented on January 1, 2026.

If the law passed it would be implemented on January first next year.

Pending

The Center for American Progress projects US government debt could reach 200% of GDP by 2055 if all temporary provisions of the bill are permanently extended.

They say that in such a scenario government debt could reach about double the size of the economy by 2055, compared with 156 percent without any changes to the existing law.

9 months ago Pending

The Center for American Progress projects US government debt could reach 200% of GDP by 2055 if all temporary provisions of the bill are permanently extended.

They say that in such a scenario government debt could reach about double the size of the economy by 2055, compared with 156 percent without any changes to the existing law.

Pending

If Section 899 taxes are implemented, the cost of investment in the US for foreigners is predicted to rise, reducing inbound investment, shrinking US capital stock, decreasing labor productivity, and lowering wages.

8 months ago Pending

Pending

Global government debt is forecast to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2025.

Global government debt levels have been growing rapidly over the last 25 years and are now forecast to exceed $100 trillion dollars by the end of this year.

9 months ago Pending

Global government debt is forecast to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2025.

Global government debt levels have been growing rapidly over the last 25 years and are now forecast to exceed $100 trillion dollars by the end of this year.

Pending

9 months ago Pending

Pending

JD Vance believes Section 899 could raise trillions of dollars in US tax revenues.

She says that some – like JD Vance - love the idea of imposing revenge taxes on foreigners, as it will play well with the Maga base – and he believes that it could raise trillions of dollars in revenues.

8 months ago Pending

JD Vance believes Section 899 could raise trillions of dollars in US tax revenues.

Pending

Trump's team claims his policies and legislation will halve the US fiscal deficit from 6.4% to 3% by the end of his term.

Trump’s team claim that the legislation, when combined with his pro-growth policies, will halve the US fiscal deficit from its current level of 6.4 percent, to 3 percent by the end of his term.

9 months ago Pending

Trump's team claims his policies and legislation will halve the US fiscal deficit from 6.4% to 3% by the end of his term.

Trump’s team claim that the legislation, when combined with his pro-growth policies, will halve the US fiscal deficit from its current level of 6.4 percent, to 3 percent by the end of his term.

Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts that Section 899 would eventually cause the government to lose money by scaring off foreign investors and lowering American asset prices.

The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts that the provision would start to lose the government money by scaring off foreign investors and therefore lowering American asset prices.

8 months ago Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts that Section 899 would eventually cause the government to lose money by scaring off foreign investors and lowering American asset prices.

The Joint Committee on Taxation forecasts that the provision would start to lose the government money by scaring off foreign investors and therefore lowering American asset prices.

Pending

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates US national debt will reach 129% of GDP by 2034 if Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' act passes.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that favors debt reduction, estimates that US national debt will reach 129 percent of GDP by 2034.

9 months ago Pending

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates US national debt will reach 129% of GDP by 2034 if Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' act passes.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group that favors debt reduction, estimates that US national debt will reach 129 percent of GDP by 2034.

Pending

The Wall Street Journal suggests Section 899 legislation will never go into force.

The Wall Street Journal has argued that Section 899 is just a negotiating tool and that US lawmakers don’t actually want to collect any revenue from it, suggesting that it will never go into force.

8 months ago Pending

The Wall Street Journal suggests Section 899 legislation will never go into force.

The Wall Street Journal has argued that Section 899 is just a negotiating tool and that US lawmakers don’t actually want to collect any revenue from it, suggesting that it will never go into force.

Pending

US debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed the 1945 high (over 100% of GDP) in nine years (by 2034).

Even without President Trumps planned deficit spending – as part of his budget – the US debt to GDP ratio is expected to exceed the 1945 high in nine years.

9 months ago Pending

US debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to exceed the 1945 high (over 100% of GDP) in nine years (by 2034).

Even without President Trumps planned deficit spending – as part of his budget – the US debt to GDP ratio is expected to exceed the 1945 high in nine years.

Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation predicts Section 899 would raise $116 billion in US tax revenue over the next decade.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, Section 899 would raise $116 billion dollars over the next decade

8 months ago Pending

The Joint Committee on Taxation predicts Section 899 would raise $116 billion in US tax revenue over the next decade.

According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, Section 899 would raise $116 billion dollars over the next decade

Pending

CBO predicts US debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 98% to a record 125% within the next 10 years (by 2035).

9 months ago Pending

CBO predicts US debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from 98% to a record 125% within the next 10 years (by 2035).

Pending

A senior Wall Street executive predicts foreign investment in the US will definitely cool if Section 899 passes.

A senior executive at a big Wall Street bank told the Financial Times that Section 899 is one of the more worrisome ideas to have come out of DC this year – saying - If this goes forward, it will definitely cool foreign investment in the United States.

8 months ago Pending

A senior Wall Street executive predicts foreign investment in the US will definitely cool if Section 899 passes.

Pending

China's government set its fiscal deficit target at 4% of GDP for 2025.

The government set this year’s fiscal deficit target 4% of GDP.

9 months ago Pending

China's government set its fiscal deficit target at 4% of GDP for 2025.

The government set this year’s fiscal deficit target 4% of GDP.

Pending

If Section 899 applies to US Treasury bonds, their yield is predicted to fall by approximately 1%.

If it did, the yield on treasuries would fall by around 1% making them unattractive to foreign investors.

8 months ago Pending

If Section 899 applies to US Treasury bonds, their yield is predicted to fall by approximately 1%.

If it did, the yield on treasuries would fall by around 1% making them unattractive to foreign investors.

Pending

UK budget deficit is expected to remain through the end of the decade (by 2029/2030).

They expect the budget to remain in a deficit through the end of the decade.

9 months ago Pending

UK budget deficit is expected to remain through the end of the decade (by 2029/2030).

They expect the budget to remain in a deficit through the end of the decade.

Pending

Morgan Stanley predicts Section 899 would put pressure on the US dollar and disincentivize foreign investment in the US.

Morgan Stanley say that Section 899 would put pressure on the dollar, and “disincentivizes foreign investment”

8 months ago Pending

Morgan Stanley predicts Section 899 would put pressure on the US dollar and disincentivize foreign investment in the US.

Morgan Stanley say that Section 899 would put pressure on the dollar, and “disincentivizes foreign investment”

Pending

Global government debt is forecast to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2025.

Global government debt levels have been growing rapidly over the last 25 years and are now forecast to exceed $100 trillion dollars by the end of this year.

9 months ago Pending

Global government debt is forecast to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2025.

Global government debt levels have been growing rapidly over the last 25 years and are now forecast to exceed $100 trillion dollars by the end of this year.

Pending

Emmanuel Cau (Barclays) predicts that if Section 899 tax legislation passes, dollar assets will become less valuable for foreign investors.

Emmanuel Cau at Barclays suggested in a note that the mere passage of the tax legislation could make dollar assets less valuable for foreign investors.

8 months ago Pending

Emmanuel Cau (Barclays) predicts that if Section 899 tax legislation passes, dollar assets will become less valuable for foreign investors.

Emmanuel Cau at Barclays suggested in a note that the mere passage of the tax legislation could make dollar assets less valuable for foreign investors.

Pending

The negative message sent by the H-1B visa fee regarding US competitiveness for global talent will ultimately be more costly than the fee itself.

That message may prove more expensive than the fee itself.

5 months ago Pending

The negative message sent by the H-1B visa fee regarding US competitiveness for global talent will ultimately be more costly than the fee itself.

That message may prove more expensive than the fee itself.

Pending

The H-1B visa fee policy might not withstand a court challenge and is unlikely to generate the expected revenue.

The policy might not survive a court challenge. It is unlikely to raise the revenue its supporters expect.

5 months ago Pending

The H-1B visa fee policy might not withstand a court challenge and is unlikely to generate the expected revenue.

The policy might not survive a court challenge. It is unlikely to raise the revenue its supporters expect.

Pending

Corporate hesitation caused by policy uncertainty will slow US economic growth, hinder innovation, and damage America's business reputation.

It slows growth, innovation and undermines America’s reputation as a reliable place to do business.

5 months ago Pending

Corporate hesitation caused by policy uncertainty will slow US economic growth, hinder innovation, and damage America's business reputation.

It slows growth, innovation and undermines America’s reputation as a reliable place to do business.

Pending

Companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach, delaying hiring, investment, and expansion due to the unpredictable US business environment.

companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach to business planning— delaying hiring, investment, and expansion until the rules stabilize.

5 months ago Pending

Companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach, delaying hiring, investment, and expansion due to the unpredictable US business environment.

companies may adopt a wait-and-see approach to business planning— delaying hiring, investment, and expansion until the rules stabilize.

Pending

Garry Tan predicts the H-1B fee will greatly benefit overseas tech hubs and severely harm US startups.

Garry Tan, the CEO of Y Combinator, called the fee “a massive gift to every overseas tech hub” and warned that it would “kneecap startups.”

5 months ago Pending

Garry Tan predicts the H-1B fee will greatly benefit overseas tech hubs and severely harm US startups.

Garry Tan, the CEO of Y Combinator, called the fee “a massive gift to every overseas tech hub” and warned that it would “kneecap startups.”

Pending

The H-1B visa fee may accelerate the global trend of countries that previously exported talent now investing in talent retention.

The new visa fee may accelerate a shift that is already in motion - where countries that once exported talent as an economic strategy are now investing in retention.

5 months ago Pending

The H-1B visa fee may accelerate the global trend of countries that previously exported talent now investing in talent retention.

The new visa fee may accelerate a shift that is already in motion - where countries that once exported talent as an economic strategy are now investing in retention.

Pending

The flow of remittances from foreign workers to their home countries will decrease if skilled talent remains in their home countries.

this flow will disappear – or at least reduce - if people stay at home.

5 months ago Pending

The flow of remittances from foreign workers to their home countries will decrease if skilled talent remains in their home countries.

this flow will disappear – or at least reduce - if people stay at home.

Pending

Amitabh Kant predicts the H-1B rule will stifle US innovation while significantly boosting India's innovation.

this rule would “choke US innovation and turbocharge India’s” [according to Amitabh Kant].

5 months ago Pending

Amitabh Kant predicts the H-1B rule will stifle US innovation while significantly boosting India's innovation.

this rule would “choke US innovation and turbocharge India’s” [according to Amitabh Kant].

Pending

Skilled talent that previously left countries like China and India for the US may now remain in their home countries.

Talent that once left those countries - now might remain.

5 months ago Pending

Skilled talent that previously left countries like China and India for the US may now remain in their home countries.

Talent that once left those countries - now might remain.

Pending

The H-1B visa fee could financially exclude highly qualified applicants from middle-income countries.

The proposed fee introduces a financial barrier that could exclude some of the best applicants from middle-income countries where the fee exceeds annual salaries.

5 months ago Pending

The H-1B visa fee could financially exclude highly qualified applicants from middle-income countries.

The proposed fee introduces a financial barrier that could exclude some of the best applicants from middle-income countries where the fee exceeds annual salaries.

Pending

The precedent set by the deal could lead to future presidents demanding larger cuts, or foreign governments retaliating with their own executive tolls on trade.

And what happens when the next president, who Trump supporters may not like, wants a bigger cut, or when foreign governments retaliate with their own executive tolls?

6 months ago Pending

The precedent set by the deal could lead to future presidents demanding larger cuts, or foreign governments retaliating with their own executive tolls on trade.

And what happens when the next president, who Trump supporters may not like, wants a bigger cut, or when foreign governments retaliate with their own executive tolls?

Pending

The Cato Institute predicts that courts could uphold the H-1B visa fee despite its potential lack of clear statutory basis.

The Cato Institute has warned that while the fee may lack a clear statutory basis, courts could still uphold it.

5 months ago Pending

The Cato Institute predicts that courts could uphold the H-1B visa fee despite its potential lack of clear statutory basis.

The Cato Institute has warned that while the fee may lack a clear statutory basis, courts could still uphold it.

Pending

This new model of executive capitalism risks replacing America's global leadership principles (rule of law, institutional process, strategic coherence) with a system based on presidentially negotiated price tags.

This new model risks replacing all three with a presidentially negotiated price tag.

6 months ago Pending

This new model risks replacing all three with a presidentially negotiated price tag.

Pending

If skilled talent leaves the US for countries with more welcoming immigration policies, innovation will follow them to those countries.

if the talent goes elsewhere — to countries with more welcoming immigration policies — the innovation goes with it.

5 months ago Pending

If skilled talent leaves the US for countries with more welcoming immigration policies, innovation will follow them to those countries.

if the talent goes elsewhere — to countries with more welcoming immigration policies — the innovation goes with it.

Pending

The chip deal could become a template for a new model of 'executive capitalism' that expands to other industries like biotech, aerospace, or energy, where export access is monetized and national security becomes negotiable.

What began as a one-off chip deal could become a template, a new model of executive capitalism where export access is monetized and national security becomes negotiable. If this model expands to biotech, aerospace, or energy, the implications are profound.

6 months ago Pending

Pending

The author predicts that government agencies will never release the full results of their investigations into Jeffrey Epstein.

I'm not sure that the government agencies will ever release the results of their investigations into Epstein, as the system that protected him still exists.

5 months ago Pending

The author predicts that government agencies will never release the full results of their investigations into Jeffrey Epstein.

I'm not sure that the government agencies will ever release the results of their investigations into Epstein, as the system that protected him still exists.

Pending

Trump's policy of marking up chip exports will signal China to accelerate its efforts to develop domestic chip production.

The result, a market signal to China to build their own chips.

6 months ago Pending

Trump's policy of marking up chip exports will signal China to accelerate its efforts to develop domestic chip production.

The result, a market signal to China to build their own chips.

Pending

The new H-1B visa fee could accelerate the trend of US firms moving jobs offshore.

This new fee could accelerate that shift [of firms moving jobs offshore].

5 months ago Pending

The new H-1B visa fee could accelerate the trend of US firms moving jobs offshore.

This new fee could accelerate that shift [of firms moving jobs offshore].

Pending

The IMF predicts Russia's economic growth to be 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

The IMF expects growth of 1.3% this year and 1.2% next year.

10 months ago Pending

The IMF predicts Russia's economic growth to be 1.3% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

The IMF expects growth of 1.3% this year and 1.2% next year.

Pending

The author predicts that the release of the Epstein birthday book will not lead to any prosecutions due to the nature of its cryptic content.

I don't see the release of this book leading to any prosecutions as all of the messages were written using innuendo with cryptic references rather than outright admissions of criminality.

5 months ago Pending

The author predicts that the release of the Epstein birthday book will not lead to any prosecutions due to the nature of its cryptic content.

I don't see the release of this book leading to any prosecutions as all of the messages were written using innuendo with cryptic references rather than outright admissions of criminality.

Pending

The current US-China trade truce is temporary, and the fragile relationship indicates that another disruption is imminent due to political decisions.

The current truce might hold for a few months, but the overall relationship remains fragile — and the next disruption is only ever one political decision away.

4 months ago Pending

The current US-China trade truce is temporary, and the fragile relationship indicates that another disruption is imminent due to political decisions.

The current truce might hold for a few months, but the overall relationship remains fragile — and the next disruption is only ever one political decision away.

Pending

Bryan Johnson expects to achieve indefinite longevity.

Bryan Johnson – the anti-ageing influencer says that he expects to live forever – so he will likely need all of his money to spend on things like hair dye and embarrassing his son.

9 months ago Pending

Bryan Johnson expects to achieve indefinite longevity.

Bryan Johnson – the anti-ageing influencer says that he expects to live forever – so he will likely need all of his money to spend on things like hair dye and embarrassing his son.

Pending

The current US-China trade truce is likely short-lived, with the overall relationship remaining fragile and prone to future disruptions.

The current truce might hold for a few months, but the overall relationship remains fragile — and the next disruption is only ever one political decision away.

4 months ago Pending

The current US-China trade truce is likely short-lived, with the overall relationship remaining fragile and prone to future disruptions.

The current truce might hold for a few months, but the overall relationship remains fragile — and the next disruption is only ever one political decision away.

Pending

The US President is replacing traditional governance systems with a 'loyalty test' for businesses.

He's replacing it with a loyalty test.

6 months ago Pending

The US President is replacing traditional governance systems with a 'loyalty test' for businesses.

He's replacing it with a loyalty test.

Pending

The Russian economy is expected to struggle further if energy prices continue to fall.

The Russian economy has already started slowing – and can be expected to struggle if energy prices fall any further.

10 months ago Pending

The Russian economy is expected to struggle further if energy prices continue to fall.

The Russian economy has already started slowing – and can be expected to struggle if energy prices fall any further.

Pending

If the US makes it harder for international students to stay after graduation, those students will seek opportunities in other countries.

If the U.S. makes it harder to stay, students will go elsewhere.

5 months ago Pending

If the US makes it harder for international students to stay after graduation, those students will seek opportunities in other countries.

If the U.S. makes it harder to stay, students will go elsewhere.

Pending

China's rare earth leverage strategy risks becoming ineffective if overused, potentially leading to a disproportionate loss of negotiating power with even a minor reduction in market dominance.

This is quite a balancing act for China, as if they play this hand too often, it stops working and a small reduction in dominance in this sector could reduce its negotiating power disproportionally.

4 months ago Pending

China's rare earth leverage strategy risks becoming ineffective if overused, potentially leading to a disproportionate loss of negotiating power with even a minor reduction in market dominance.

This is quite a balancing act for China, as if they play this hand too often, it stops working and a small reduction in dominance in this sector could reduce its negotiating power disproportionally.

Pending

Putin will struggle to normalize the Russian economy after the multi-year lending boom, where state-controlled banks were compelled to finance defense companies at subsidized rates.

Putin will struggle to normalize the Russian economy after the multi-year lending boom where state-controlled banks were forced to finance defense companies at subsidized rates.

10 months ago Pending

Putin will struggle to normalize the Russian economy after the multi-year lending boom, where state-controlled banks were compelled to finance defense companies at subsidized rates.

Putin will struggle to normalize the Russian economy after the multi-year lending boom where state-controlled banks were forced to finance defense companies at subsidized rates.

Pending

Ghislaine Maxwell predicted that Jeffrey Epstein's life for the next 50 years (from 2003) would be 'even more wonderful'.

Know when you're winning, the next 50 years will be even more wonderful.

5 months ago Pending

Ghislaine Maxwell predicted that Jeffrey Epstein's life for the next 50 years (from 2003) would be 'even more wonderful'.

Know when you're winning, the next 50 years will be even more wonderful.

Pending

Monetizing export controls sets a precedent that could lead to allowing companies to sell weapons to adversarial countries for a fee, or accepting illicit trade (like fentanyl) if high duties are paid.

If export controls can be monetized, what's next? Could a fee be paid so companies could sell weapons to enemy countries? Maybe a high duty on fentinel would make that okay. The logic is slippery and the slope is steep.

6 months ago Pending

Pending

The high H-1B fee will lead employers to stop hiring foreign graduates, resulting in fewer job offers for international students and a drop in applications to American universities, especially in STEM.

many employers will simply stop doing it. That means fewer job offers for international students, and less incentive to study in the U.S. in the first place. American Universities could see a drop in applications, especially in STEM fields where foreign students make up a large share of the graduate population.

5 months ago Pending

Pending

Overusing rare earths as leverage could lead to a disproportionate reduction in China's negotiating power due to diminished dominance.

if they play this hand too often, it stops working and a small reduction in dominance in this sector could reduce its negotiating power disproportionally.

4 months ago Pending

Overusing rare earths as leverage could lead to a disproportionate reduction in China's negotiating power due to diminished dominance.

if they play this hand too often, it stops working and a small reduction in dominance in this sector could reduce its negotiating power disproportionally.

Pending

The current trade agreement between Trump and Xi is unlikely to be a lasting deal, mirroring previous temporary agreements.

None of the five prior meetings between Trump and Xi have produced a lasting deal, and there’s little reason to believe this one will be any different.

4 months ago Pending

The current trade agreement between Trump and Xi is unlikely to be a lasting deal, mirroring previous temporary agreements.

None of the five prior meetings between Trump and Xi have produced a lasting deal, and there’s little reason to believe this one will be any different.

Pending

Bill Gates plans to spend his entire fortune over the next 20 years on global health, development, and education, passing less than 1% to his children.

Bill Gates has said that he intends to pass on less than 1 per cent of his wealth to his children – and he told the FT this week that he plans to spend his entire fortune over the next 20 years, on global health, development and education.

9 months ago Pending

Bill Gates plans to spend his entire fortune over the next 20 years on global health, development, and education, passing less than 1% to his children.

Pending

The current temporary trade deal between Trump and Xi is unlikely to be lasting.

None of the five prior meetings between Trump and Xi have produced a lasting deal, and there’s little reason to believe this one will be any different.

4 months ago Pending

The current temporary trade deal between Trump and Xi is unlikely to be lasting.

None of the five prior meetings between Trump and Xi have produced a lasting deal, and there’s little reason to believe this one will be any different.

Pending

Russia's most skilled and productive workers will emigrate for opportunities abroad as the country's economy stagnates.

As Russia stagnates, its smartest and most productive workers – who haven’t yet left - will leave for opportunities in the rest of the world.

10 months ago Pending

Russia's most skilled and productive workers will emigrate for opportunities abroad as the country's economy stagnates.

As Russia stagnates, its smartest and most productive workers – who haven’t yet left - will leave for opportunities in the rest of the world.

Pending

As the US focuses more on businesses like stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, attracting highly educated scientists and engineers will become less important.

attracting scientists and engineers may be less important as the focus on this type of business grows.

5 months ago Pending

As the US focuses more on businesses like stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, attracting highly educated scientists and engineers will become less important.

attracting scientists and engineers may be less important as the focus on this type of business grows.

Pending

Vanguard projects that over $18 trillion in wealth will be transferred globally by 2030, primarily from Baby Boomers to Millennials.

The asset management firm Vanguard recently projected that over $18 trillion dollars in wealth will be handed down globally by 2030 in the largest intergenerational transfer of assets in history – with much of it being transferred from boomers to millennials.

9 months ago Pending

Vanguard projects that over $18 trillion in wealth will be transferred globally by 2030, primarily from Baby Boomers to Millennials.

Pending

The new governance model will lead to impossible long-term business planning, turn compliance into bargaining, and blur the line between public policy and personal favor, making the US resemble emerging markets.

Long-term planning becomes impossible. Compliance becomes bargaining. And the line between public policy and personal favor blurs into something more familiar in emerging markets than in an advanced economy like the United States.

6 months ago Pending

Pending

Elon Musk's plan to etch Grokipedia onto glass and orbit it around the moon or Mars will likely fail, with the object ending up in the Indian Ocean.

There is a good chance that this huge hunk of glass would just end up at the bottom of the Indian Ocean along with everything else he has tried to put into orbit in his Starship rockets

3 months ago Pending

Elon Musk's plan to etch Grokipedia onto glass and orbit it around the moon or Mars will likely fail, with the object ending up in the Indian Ocean.

There is a good chance that this huge hunk of glass would just end up at the bottom of the Indian Ocean along with everything else he has tried to put into orbit in his Starship rockets

Pending

China is likely to use rare earths as a trade leverage tool again in the future, potentially without warning.

Rare earths remain a pressure point — and they are a tool that China can deploy again with little warning.

4 months ago Pending

China is likely to use rare earths as a trade leverage tool again in the future, potentially without warning.

Rare earths remain a pressure point — and they are a tool that China can deploy again with little warning.

Pending

China is likely to use rare earths as a trade weapon again in the future, with little warning.

Rare earths remain a pressure point — and they are a tool that China can deploy again with little warning.

4 months ago Pending

China is likely to use rare earths as a trade weapon again in the future, with little warning.

Rare earths remain a pressure point — and they are a tool that China can deploy again with little warning.

Pending

Russia's finance ministry increased the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of GDP (from 0.5%), following a 24% reduction in its forecast for energy revenues.

On April 30th the Russian finance ministry increased the budget-deficit estimate for 2025 to 1.7% of GDP from 0.5% after reducing its forecast for energy revenues by 24%.

10 months ago Pending

Russia's finance ministry increased the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of GDP (from 0.5%), following a 24% reduction in its forecast for energy revenues.

On April 30th the Russian finance ministry increased the budget-deficit estimate for 2025 to 1.7% of GDP from 0.5% after reducing its forecast for energy revenues by 24%.

Pending

The new H-1B visa fee will generate significantly less revenue than estimated, as the rule incentivizes companies to hire highly skilled workers in foreign-based offices.

The actual revenue is likely to be significantly lower as the new rule incentivizes companies to hire highly skilled workers at foreign based offices instead of bringing them into the United States.

5 months ago Pending

The new H-1B visa fee will generate significantly less revenue than estimated, as the rule incentivizes companies to hire highly skilled workers in foreign-based offices.

The actual revenue is likely to be significantly lower as the new rule incentivizes companies to hire highly skilled workers at foreign based offices instead of bringing them into the United States.

Pending

AI models are predicted to normalize and amplify existing biases, presenting complex issues with confident, but context- and nuance-free answers.

The risk is that these models not only inherit this bias but they also normalize it, smoothing over complexity with confident, context and nuance-free answers.

3 months ago Pending

AI models are predicted to normalize and amplify existing biases, presenting complex issues with confident, but context- and nuance-free answers.

The risk is that these models not only inherit this bias but they also normalize it, smoothing over complexity with confident, context and nuance-free answers.

Pending

The deal could initiate a new model where the US government collects 'rent' from large parts of the economy, potentially inspiring similar policies in foreign governments.

this deal could be the start of a new model where Washington collects rent on huge chunks of the economy and maybe even foreign governments will start to copy it, too.

6 months ago Pending

The deal could initiate a new model where the US government collects 'rent' from large parts of the economy, potentially inspiring similar policies in foreign governments.

this deal could be the start of a new model where Washington collects rent on huge chunks of the economy and maybe even foreign governments will start to copy it, too.

Pending

Rare earth recycling, currently limited, is expected to become a widespread and promising solution.

Recycling is possibly the most promising solution – while rare earths are not widely recycled today, that’s beginning to change.

4 months ago Pending

Rare earth recycling, currently limited, is expected to become a widespread and promising solution.

Recycling is possibly the most promising solution – while rare earths are not widely recycled today, that’s beginning to change.

Pending

Increased aggressive use of rare earths by China as a trade weapon will motivate other nations to seek alternatives.

The more aggressively China uses rare earths as a weapon, the more it encourages others to find alternatives.

4 months ago Pending

Increased aggressive use of rare earths by China as a trade weapon will motivate other nations to seek alternatives.

The more aggressively China uses rare earths as a weapon, the more it encourages others to find alternatives.

Pending

The quality of AI models trained on Wikipedia is predicted to degrade if Wikipedia's existence or quality diminishes.

If Wikipedia fades, what happens to the quality of the AI models trained on it?

3 months ago Pending

The quality of AI models trained on Wikipedia is predicted to degrade if Wikipedia's existence or quality diminishes.

If Wikipedia fades, what happens to the quality of the AI models trained on it?

Pending

Lower growth in military spending and high interest rates are likely to negatively impact Russia's GDP growth, as reported by The Economist.

They highlight lower growth in military spending and high interest rates – as likely to ding GDP growth.

10 months ago Pending

Lower growth in military spending and high interest rates are likely to negatively impact Russia's GDP growth, as reported by The Economist.

They highlight lower growth in military spending and high interest rates – as likely to ding GDP growth.

Pending

In 2025, people in rich countries are predicted to inherit approximately $6 trillion.

This year – according to their calculations - people across the rich world will inherit around six trillion dollars.

9 months ago Pending

In 2025, people in rich countries are predicted to inherit approximately $6 trillion.

This year – according to their calculations - people across the rich world will inherit around six trillion dollars.

Pending

New, experimental technologies using alternative materials will reduce the sole reliance on rare earths in the future.

These technologies are still experimental, but they point to a future in which rare earths are no longer the only option.

4 months ago Pending

New, experimental technologies using alternative materials will reduce the sole reliance on rare earths in the future.

These technologies are still experimental, but they point to a future in which rare earths are no longer the only option.

Pending

Experimental technologies suggest a future where alternatives to rare earths will be available.

These technologies are still experimental, but they point to a future in which rare earths are no longer the only option.

4 months ago Pending

Experimental technologies suggest a future where alternatives to rare earths will be available.

These technologies are still experimental, but they point to a future in which rare earths are no longer the only option.

Pending

The new transactional model for export controls could reshape the US government's interaction with the business community.

It's a transactional model which sets a precedent which could reshape how the US government interacts with the business community.

6 months ago Pending

The new transactional model for export controls could reshape the US government's interaction with the business community.

It's a transactional model which sets a precedent which could reshape how the US government interacts with the business community.

Pending

The new H-1B visa fee will effectively end the H-1B visa category by making it prohibitively expensive for most businesses.

Now, he’s proposing a fee which would effectively end the H 1B visa category by making it prohibitive for most businesses to hire foreign workers in the United States.

5 months ago Pending

The new H-1B visa fee will effectively end the H-1B visa category by making it prohibitively expensive for most businesses.

Now, he’s proposing a fee which would effectively end the H 1B visa category by making it prohibitive for most businesses to hire foreign workers in the United States.

Pending

Should China cut off the US from rare earths, US allies may be reluctant to re-export to the US due to strained diplomatic relations and self-interest.

If the United States was cut off by China, other nations might hesitate to re-export to American buyers—not just to avoid jeopardizing their own access, but also because recent U.S. trade aggression has strained diplomatic and commercial relationships with the rest of the world. In a moment of scarcity, Washington may find that fewer of its historical allies are willing to take big economic risks on its behalf.

4 months ago Pending

Should China cut off the US from rare earths, US allies may be reluctant to re-export to the US due to strained diplomatic relations and self-interest.

Pending

Millennials are expected to become the richest generation in history, inheriting approximately $124 trillion in assets over the next 20 years (by 2045).

millennials – who got off to a slow start - are now expected to become the richest generation in history - thanks to the nearly $124 trillion dollars in assets that they are expected to inherit over the next twenty years from their baby boomer parents and grandparents.

9 months ago Pending

Millennials are expected to become the richest generation in history, inheriting approximately $124 trillion in assets over the next 20 years (by 2045).

Pending

China's stockpiling of industrial inputs aims to enable it to operate independently of foreign suppliers if trade hostilities with the US resume.

The goal appears to be strategic insulation — to ensure that, in the event of renewed trade hostilities, China can continue to operate without relying too much on foreign suppliers.

4 months ago Pending

China's stockpiling of industrial inputs aims to enable it to operate independently of foreign suppliers if trade hostilities with the US resume.

The goal appears to be strategic insulation — to ensure that, in the event of renewed trade hostilities, China can continue to operate without relying too much on foreign suppliers.

Pending

The transactional approach to national security could lead to defense contractors like Lockheed Martin selling advanced military hardware (e.g., F-35s) to adversarial nations like China for a commission.

What's next? she asked, letting Loheed Martin sell F-35s to China for a 15% commission.

6 months ago Pending

What's next? she asked, letting Loheed Martin sell F-35s to China for a 15% commission.

Pending

A post-war wave of defaults is a prospect for Russian banks' portfolios if defense spending decreases and the economy slows.

This raises the prospect of a post-war wave of defaults if defense spending falls and the economy slows.

10 months ago Pending

A post-war wave of defaults is a prospect for Russian banks' portfolios if defense spending decreases and the economy slows.

This raises the prospect of a post-war wave of defaults if defense spending falls and the economy slows.

Pending

It will require significant time and effort ('a small army of digital archaeologists') to comprehensively compare Grokipedia and Wikipedia.

It’ll take time — and a small army of digital archaeologists — to fully map the differences between Grokipedia and Wikipedia.

3 months ago Pending

It will require significant time and effort ('a small army of digital archaeologists') to comprehensively compare Grokipedia and Wikipedia.

It’ll take time — and a small army of digital archaeologists — to fully map the differences between Grokipedia and Wikipedia.

Pending

Nvidia and AMD are unlikely to capture 100% of China's AI chip market in the long term due to rising domestic competition from Chinese firms like Huawei.

That scenario would require Nvidia and AMD to capture 100% of China's AI chip market, which is both unlikely and unsustainable in the long term, especially when Chinese firms like Huawei are racing to develop homegrown alternatives.

6 months ago Pending

Nvidia and AMD are unlikely to capture 100% of China's AI chip market in the long term due to rising domestic competition from Chinese firms like Huawei.

Pending

PwC's Chief AI Officer, Dan Priest, predicts that corporate structures may transform into an hourglass shape, with AI reducing middle management layers and allowing AI-proficient graduates to advance directly into leadership positions.

Dan Priest - the chief AI officer at pwc told the Economist that the structure might eventually shift to an hourglass - where AI hollows out middle management – essentially the opposite of what we are seeing today. This would allow AI-native graduates to leapfrog into leadership.

3 months ago Pending

Pending

If China cuts off rare earth supplies to the US, American allies may be unwilling to re-export them to the US due to strained diplomatic relations and self-interest.

4 months ago Pending

If China cuts off rare earth supplies to the US, American allies may be unwilling to re-export them to the US due to strained diplomatic relations and self-interest.

Pending

Corporate bankruptcies in Russia, which surged 20% in 2024, are expected to continue their upward trend, according to the Moscow Times.

Corporate bankruptcies surged 20% in Russia last year and this trend is expected to continue.

10 months ago Pending

Corporate bankruptcies in Russia, which surged 20% in 2024, are expected to continue their upward trend, according to the Moscow Times.

Corporate bankruptcies surged 20% in Russia last year and this trend is expected to continue.

Pending

Grokipedia's content, due to Grok's training data, is predicted to resemble Reddit/Twitter trolls more than a traditional encyclopedia.

But given Grokipedia’s reliance on his chatbot Grok - the result may be less Encyclopedia Britannica and more Reddit-meets-Twitter trolls – as his chatbot does train on sources like that.

3 months ago Pending

Grokipedia's content, due to Grok's training data, is predicted to resemble Reddit/Twitter trolls more than a traditional encyclopedia.

But given Grokipedia’s reliance on his chatbot Grok - the result may be less Encyclopedia Britannica and more Reddit-meets-Twitter trolls – as his chatbot does train on sources like that.

Pending

Companies that do not hire junior employees now risk their long-term existence, potentially within 15 years, as warned by recruiters in the FT.

According to the FT, some recruiters are warning that failing to hire juniors today - puts a company's existence at risk within 15 years.

3 months ago Pending

Companies that do not hire junior employees now risk their long-term existence, potentially within 15 years, as warned by recruiters in the FT.

According to the FT, some recruiters are warning that failing to hire juniors today - puts a company's existence at risk within 15 years.

Pending

AI is predicted to boost economy-wide productivity, even as AI development labs may struggle with monetization.

AI could end up boosting productivity across the economy while the labs themselves struggle to monetize.

4 months ago Pending

AI is predicted to boost economy-wide productivity, even as AI development labs may struggle with monetization.

AI could end up boosting productivity across the economy while the labs themselves struggle to monetize.

Pending

Ukraine's real GDP is predicted to return to its pre-war level only by 2030, even if it maintains recent growth rates, according to a European Parliament analysis.

According to an analysis by the European Parliament, if Ukraine was able to maintain its recent growth rates, it’s real GDP would only return to its pre-war level by 2030.

10 months ago Pending

Ukraine's real GDP is predicted to return to its pre-war level only by 2030, even if it maintains recent growth rates, according to a European Parliament analysis.

According to an analysis by the European Parliament, if Ukraine was able to maintain its recent growth rates, it’s real GDP would only return to its pre-war level by 2030.

Pending

If the Supreme Court rules against the administration's use of emergency powers for tariffs, the Treasury could be forced to refund up to $168 billion to businesses.

If the Court rules against the administration, the Treasury could be forced to refund up to $168 billion dollars to businesses.

2 months ago Pending

If the Supreme Court rules against the administration's use of emergency powers for tariffs, the Treasury could be forced to refund up to $168 billion to businesses.

If the Court rules against the administration, the Treasury could be forced to refund up to $168 billion dollars to businesses.

Pending

If AI models become commoditized, the market is predicted to be highly competitive without a single dominant player or pricing power, rather than a winner-take-all scenario.

And if the models are all roughly the same, then the market may not reward any one player. Instead of a big winner and a monopoly, we might see a very competitive market for AI tools where none have any pricing power.

4 months ago Pending

If AI models become commoditized, the market is predicted to be highly competitive without a single dominant player or pricing power, rather than a winner-take-all scenario.

Pending

Sales roles that require travel and in-person relationship building will remain strong against automation, making a willingness to travel a significant competitive advantage.

Sales roles, which require travel and face-to-face relationship building, remain robust against automation. The willingness to get on a plane is becoming a competitive advantage.

3 months ago Pending

Sales roles that require travel and in-person relationship building will remain strong against automation, making a willingness to travel a significant competitive advantage.

Sales roles, which require travel and face-to-face relationship building, remain robust against automation. The willingness to get on a plane is becoming a competitive advantage.

Pending

A projected $64 billion in tax revenue will be lost over the next decade due to DOGE's firing of IRS tax auditors.

A projected $64 billion loss in tax revenue over the next decade because there were fewer auditors to catch cheats.

2 months ago Pending

A projected $64 billion in tax revenue will be lost over the next decade due to DOGE's firing of IRS tax auditors.

A projected $64 billion loss in tax revenue over the next decade because there were fewer auditors to catch cheats.

Pending

Profits from AI are predicted to primarily benefit businesses that utilize AI models to boost productivity across the economy, rather than the AI model-building labs which may struggle with monetization.

It might not be the model builders. It might be the businesses that use the models. AI could end up boosting productivity across the economy while the labs themselves struggle to monetize.

4 months ago Pending

It might not be the model builders. It might be the businesses that use the models. AI could end up boosting productivity across the economy while the labs themselves struggle to monetize.

Pending

Less glamorous jobs like substitute teachers, prison guards, and traffic flaggers will continue to offer stability and attract graduates due to their resistance to automation and decreasing turnover.

Some of these less glamorous jobs offer what many office roles no longer guarantee: stability. They are hard to automate, and turnover in these roles is falling.

3 months ago Pending

Less glamorous jobs like substitute teachers, prison guards, and traffic flaggers will continue to offer stability and attract graduates due to their resistance to automation and decreasing turnover.

Some of these less glamorous jobs offer what many office roles no longer guarantee: stability. They are hard to automate, and turnover in these roles is falling.

Pending

Tariffs are unlikely to revive American manufacturing.

it is far from clear that tariffs will achieve their stated goal of reviving American manufacturing.

7 months ago Pending

Tariffs are unlikely to revive American manufacturing.

it is far from clear that tariffs will achieve their stated goal of reviving American manufacturing.

Pending

Electricity supply for the AI infrastructure buildout is predicted to face delays and not arrive on schedule.

The chips might arrive on schedule. The electricity probably won't.

4 months ago Pending

Electricity supply for the AI infrastructure buildout is predicted to face delays and not arrive on schedule.

The chips might arrive on schedule. The electricity probably won't.

Pending

50-year mortgages will not improve home affordability.

A 50-year mortgage won’t make homes affordable.

3 months ago Pending

50-year mortgages will not improve home affordability.

A 50-year mortgage won’t make homes affordable.

Pending

Abandoning human-driven knowledge processes in favor of algorithmic certainty risks replacing genuine knowledge with narratives and critical inquiry with ideology.

And if we abandon that process in favor of algorithmic certainty, we risk replacing knowledge with narrative, and inquiry with ideology.

3 months ago Pending

Abandoning human-driven knowledge processes in favor of algorithmic certainty risks replacing genuine knowledge with narratives and critical inquiry with ideology.

And if we abandon that process in favor of algorithmic certainty, we risk replacing knowledge with narrative, and inquiry with ideology.

Pending

Employers will increasingly abandon open hiring processes and rely on offline networks and nepotism due to the difficulty of distinguishing candidates amidst AI-generated applications.

Just as buyers in Akerlof's market stopped buying used cars, employers are stopping the open hiring process. They retreat to offline networks and nepotism to find people they feel they can trust.

3 months ago Pending

Employers will increasingly abandon open hiring processes and rely on offline networks and nepotism due to the difficulty of distinguishing candidates amidst AI-generated applications.

Just as buyers in Akerlof's market stopped buying used cars, employers are stopping the open hiring process. They retreat to offline networks and nepotism to find people they feel they can trust.

Pending

Elon Musk's plan to etch Grokipedia onto glass and put it into orbit around the Moon or Mars will likely fail, with the object ending up in the Indian Ocean.

There is a good chance that this huge hunk of glass would just end up at the bottom of the Indian Ocean along with everything else he has tried to put into orbit in his Starship rockets

3 months ago Pending

Elon Musk's plan to etch Grokipedia onto glass and put it into orbit around the Moon or Mars will likely fail, with the object ending up in the Indian Ocean.

There is a good chance that this huge hunk of glass would just end up at the bottom of the Indian Ocean along with everything else he has tried to put into orbit in his Starship rockets

Pending

Lack of backing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will cause liquidity for 50-year mortgage instruments to evaporate, deterring investors.

Without their backing [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac], liquidity evaporates and investors aren’t queueing up for a 50-year instrument

3 months ago Pending

Lack of backing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will cause liquidity for 50-year mortgage instruments to evaporate, deterring investors.

Without their backing [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac], liquidity evaporates and investors aren’t queueing up for a 50-year instrument

Pending

Current US trade deals are likely to be constantly renegotiated in the coming years.

It is not at all obvious that these deals are set in stone – they might well be renegotiated constantly in the coming years.

7 months ago Pending

Current US trade deals are likely to be constantly renegotiated in the coming years.

It is not at all obvious that these deals are set in stone – they might well be renegotiated constantly in the coming years.

Pending

Mega cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow in 2026.

The mega cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow next year alone, even after capex.

4 months ago Pending

Mega cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow in 2026.

The mega cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow next year alone, even after capex.

Pending

By April, Elon Musk intimated that DOGE's savings would be closer to $150 billion.

By April, Musk was intimating that the savings might be closer to $150 billion.

2 months ago Pending

By April, Elon Musk intimated that DOGE's savings would be closer to $150 billion.

By April, Musk was intimating that the savings might be closer to $150 billion.

Pending

The AI tools market is predicted to be highly competitive, with no single dominant player or significant pricing power.

Instead of a big winner and a monopoly, we might see a very competitive market for AI tools where none have any pricing power.

4 months ago Pending

The AI tools market is predicted to be highly competitive, with no single dominant player or significant pricing power.

Instead of a big winner and a monopoly, we might see a very competitive market for AI tools where none have any pricing power.

Pending

Chinese companies will continue to invest in other Asian countries while American businesses retreat to North America.

Chinese companies will still invest in their countries while American businesses are retrenching to North America.

7 months ago Pending

Chinese companies will continue to invest in other Asian countries while American businesses retreat to North America.

Chinese companies will still invest in their countries while American businesses are retrenching to North America.

Pending

Many GPUs acquired during the pandemic era are predicted to be liquidated without recouping their cost.

The FTP suggests that many pandemic error GPUs will end up in liquidation, never having earned back their cost.

4 months ago Pending

Many GPUs acquired during the pandemic era are predicted to be liquidated without recouping their cost.

The FTP suggests that many pandemic error GPUs will end up in liquidation, never having earned back their cost.

Pending

AI models, when trained on polarized content, will inherit and normalize existing biases, leading to oversimplified and nuance-free information.

The risk is that these models not only inherit this bias but they also normalize it, smoothing over complexity with confident, context and nuance-free answers.

3 months ago Pending

AI models, when trained on polarized content, will inherit and normalize existing biases, leading to oversimplified and nuance-free information.

The risk is that these models not only inherit this bias but they also normalize it, smoothing over complexity with confident, context and nuance-free answers.

Pending

Without Qualified Mortgage status, 50-year mortgages will be considered too risky, and lenders will only offer them with a significant premium.

Without this protection [Qualified Mortgage standard] - you’re left with a riskier product that lenders won’t touch without charging a significant premium.

3 months ago Pending

Without Qualified Mortgage status, 50-year mortgages will be considered too risky, and lenders will only offer them with a significant premium.

Without this protection [Qualified Mortgage standard] - you’re left with a riskier product that lenders won’t touch without charging a significant premium.

Pending

Average US household to incur $2,400 in additional costs in 2025 due to tariffs.

The Yale University Budget Lab announced on Monday that U.S. consumers face an effective tariff rate of 18.2% - the highest rate since 1934 – which means that the average household will see additional costs of $2,400 in 2025.

7 months ago Pending

Average US household to incur $2,400 in additional costs in 2025 due to tariffs.

Pending

Total projected data center spending (AI and traditional IT) is expected to reach almost $7 trillion over the next 5 years (by 2030).

data centers powering traditional IT applications are expected to require $1.5 trillion in capital expenditures, meaning that we're talking about almost $7 trillion in projected data center spending over the next 5 years.

4 months ago Pending

Total projected data center spending (AI and traditional IT) is expected to reach almost $7 trillion over the next 5 years (by 2030).

Pending

The US housing supply shortage will not improve due to an aging population, labor shortages, and the deportation of construction workers.

that shortage is not going to improve when America has an ageing population a growing labour shortage and is deporting the people who work in construction.

3 months ago Pending

The US housing supply shortage will not improve due to an aging population, labor shortages, and the deportation of construction workers.

that shortage is not going to improve when America has an ageing population a growing labour shortage and is deporting the people who work in construction.

Pending

Grokipedia's content will resemble Reddit-meets-Twitter trolls rather than a traditional encyclopedia, due to its reliance on Grok's training data.

But given Grokipedia’s reliance on his chatbot Grok - the result may be less Encyclopedia Britannica and more Reddit-meets-Twitter trolls – as his chatbot does train on sources like that.

3 months ago Pending

Grokipedia's content will resemble Reddit-meets-Twitter trolls rather than a traditional encyclopedia, due to its reliance on Grok's training data.

But given Grokipedia’s reliance on his chatbot Grok - the result may be less Encyclopedia Britannica and more Reddit-meets-Twitter trolls – as his chatbot does train on sources like that.

Pending

Elon Musk predicted DOGE could cut at least $2 trillion from the Harris-Biden budget.

I think we can do at least $2 trillion.

2 months ago Pending

Elon Musk predicted DOGE could cut at least $2 trillion from the Harris-Biden budget.

I think we can do at least $2 trillion.

Pending

Electricity supply for AI infrastructure is unlikely to meet demand and arrive on schedule, even if chip deliveries do.

The chips might arrive on schedule. The electricity probably won't.

4 months ago Pending

Electricity supply for AI infrastructure is unlikely to meet demand and arrive on schedule, even if chip deliveries do.

The chips might arrive on schedule. The electricity probably won't.

Pending

Bain & Company states that $2 trillion in annual revenue from AI companies will be required to justify the projected capital spending.

Bane says that we'll need to see $2 trillion in annual revenue from AI companies just to justify that spending.

4 months ago Pending

Bain & Company states that $2 trillion in annual revenue from AI companies will be required to justify the projected capital spending.

Bane says that we'll need to see $2 trillion in annual revenue from AI companies just to justify that spending.

Pending

Extending mortgage debt into old age with 50-year mortgages will worsen the financial stress for elderly homeowners.

extending mortgage debt into old age with fifty-year mortgages would only make that problem worse.

3 months ago Pending

Extending mortgage debt into old age with 50-year mortgages will worsen the financial stress for elderly homeowners.

extending mortgage debt into old age with fifty-year mortgages would only make that problem worse.

Pending

Mega-cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow in 2026.

The mega cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow next year alone, even after capex.

4 months ago Pending

Mega-cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow in 2026.

The mega cap US tech firms are expected to generate over $200 billion in free cash flow next year alone, even after capex.

Pending

McKinsey forecasts $5.2 trillion in capital expenditure for chips, data centers, and energy for AI infrastructure by 2030.

McKenzie forecasts $5.2 trillion in capex for chips, data centers, and energy over the next 5 years alone.

4 months ago Pending

McKinsey forecasts $5.2 trillion in capital expenditure for chips, data centers, and energy for AI infrastructure by 2030.

McKenzie forecasts $5.2 trillion in capex for chips, data centers, and energy over the next 5 years alone.

Pending

First-time home buyers taking out 50-year mortgages at age 40 will still be making payments into their 90s.

For first-time buyers who are now only entering the market at the age of 40, the arithmetic is stark: they would still be making mortgage payments into their 90s.

3 months ago Pending

First-time home buyers taking out 50-year mortgages at age 40 will still be making payments into their 90s.

For first-time buyers who are now only entering the market at the age of 40, the arithmetic is stark: they would still be making mortgage payments into their 90s.

Pending

Europe is expected to experience more disruptions in its EV market in the coming years due to increasing imports from China.

I think we can expect to see more shake ups in Europe in the coming years as more and more EV’s flood in from China.

2 months ago Pending

Europe is expected to experience more disruptions in its EV market in the coming years due to increasing imports from China.

I think we can expect to see more shake ups in Europe in the coming years as more and more EV’s flood in from China.

Pending

Anthropic is projected to bring over 1 gigawatt of compute capacity online by 2026 using Google's TPUs.

Anthropic just announced a deal to access up to 1 million of Google's TPUs, bringing over a gigawatt of compute capacity online by 2026.

4 months ago Pending

Anthropic is projected to bring over 1 gigawatt of compute capacity online by 2026 using Google's TPUs.

Anthropic just announced a deal to access up to 1 million of Google's TPUs, bringing over a gigawatt of compute capacity online by 2026.

Pending

If 50-year mortgages increase borrowing power, buyers will bid up home prices, thereby erasing any affordability gains.

if lower payments do make easier to borrow larger sums of money, buyers can be expected to just bid up home prices – as more buying power is introduced into a market struggling with supply – it would erase pretty much all of the promised affordability gain.

3 months ago Pending

If 50-year mortgages increase borrowing power, buyers will bid up home prices, thereby erasing any affordability gains.

Pending

Journalism and knowledge institutions are predicted to adapt to the new AI-driven information environment rather than disappear.

it’s more likely that journalism and knowledge institutions will adapt to the new environment than vanish from it.

6 months ago Pending

Journalism and knowledge institutions are predicted to adapt to the new AI-driven information environment rather than disappear.

it’s more likely that journalism and knowledge institutions will adapt to the new environment than vanish from it.

Pending

US EV sales are projected to have little to no growth in 2026 due to the removal of federal EV tax credits and weaker fuel economy/emissions standards.

For next year, they are projecting little or no growth due to the removal of federal EV tax credits and the weakening of US fuel economy and emissions standards.

2 months ago Pending

US EV sales are projected to have little to no growth in 2026 due to the removal of federal EV tax credits and weaker fuel economy/emissions standards.

For next year, they are projecting little or no growth due to the removal of federal EV tax credits and the weakening of US fuel economy and emissions standards.

Pending

Tesla's robots are predicted to be released in 2026.

Tesla, his electric car company, uses the chatbot in its cars and possibly its robots, which are coming next year.

4 months ago Pending

Tesla's robots are predicted to be released in 2026.

Tesla, his electric car company, uses the chatbot in its cars and possibly its robots, which are coming next year.

Pending

UBS expects the OpenAI-Nvidia deal to contribute approximately 13% to Nvidia's 2026 revenue.

The Open AI Nvidia deal, as an example, should account for around 13% of Nvidia's expected 2026 revenue according to UBS.

4 months ago Pending

UBS expects the OpenAI-Nvidia deal to contribute approximately 13% to Nvidia's 2026 revenue.

The Open AI Nvidia deal, as an example, should account for around 13% of Nvidia's expected 2026 revenue according to UBS.

Pending

Javier Milei's economic reforms in Argentina are predicted to fail.

The graveyard of reforms may be about to gain another headstone.

4 months ago Pending

Javier Milei's economic reforms in Argentina are predicted to fail.

The graveyard of reforms may be about to gain another headstone.

Pending

US plug-in car sales were expected to plunge 30% in Q4 2025 to the lowest level since 2022.

According to Bloomberg – plug-in car sales in the US are expected to plunge 30% in the final quarter of this year to the lowest since 2022.

2 months ago Pending

US plug-in car sales were expected to plunge 30% in Q4 2025 to the lowest level since 2022.

According to Bloomberg – plug-in car sales in the US are expected to plunge 30% in the final quarter of this year to the lowest since 2022.

Pending

AI tools could destroy the economic foundations of journalism, education, and public knowledge, regardless of their own profitability.

even without a path to profitability, they could still destroy the economic scaffolding that supports journalism, education, and public knowledge.

6 months ago Pending

AI tools could destroy the economic foundations of journalism, education, and public knowledge, regardless of their own profitability.

even without a path to profitability, they could still destroy the economic scaffolding that supports journalism, education, and public knowledge.

Pending

Monthly payments for 50-year mortgages, due to higher interest rates, will barely change or may even rise.

With the higher interest rate - the monthly payment would barely change—and in some cases, it would even rise

3 months ago Pending

Monthly payments for 50-year mortgages, due to higher interest rates, will barely change or may even rise.

With the higher interest rate - the monthly payment would barely change—and in some cases, it would even rise

Pending

50-year mortgage loans are estimated to cost 75 to 100 basis points more in interest than 30-year mortgages.

Analysts estimate that a 50-year loan could cost 75 to 100 basis points more than thirty-year does.

3 months ago Pending

50-year mortgage loans are estimated to cost 75 to 100 basis points more in interest than 30-year mortgages.

Analysts estimate that a 50-year loan could cost 75 to 100 basis points more than thirty-year does.

Pending

The web will increasingly become a self-referential system, recycling already recycled content, leading to a decline in originality.

The web could begin to resemble a television camera pointed at a television—recycling recycled content.

6 months ago Pending

The web will increasingly become a self-referential system, recycling already recycled content, leading to a decline in originality.

The web could begin to resemble a television camera pointed at a television—recycling recycled content.

Pending

Competition for grid capacity from data centers could end cheap EV home charging, removing a key economic argument for electric vehicles.

If EVs have to compete with data centers for grid capacity, the era of cheap home charging may come to an end, dismantling the last remaining economic argument for going electric.

2 months ago Pending

Competition for grid capacity from data centers could end cheap EV home charging, removing a key economic argument for electric vehicles.

If EVs have to compete with data centers for grid capacity, the era of cheap home charging may come to an end, dismantling the last remaining economic argument for going electric.

Pending

The complete resolution of the Epstein saga will not occur until all files are released and meaningful action is taken to address the systemic issues of a two-tier justice system.

And until we see the rest of these files, and until something is done about the two-tier justice system that protected them, the story isn't really over.

2 months ago Pending

The complete resolution of the Epstein saga will not occur until all files are released and meaningful action is taken to address the systemic issues of a two-tier justice system.

And until we see the rest of these files, and until something is done about the two-tier justice system that protected them, the story isn't really over.

Pending

Tesla is predicted to release its robots in 2026.

Tesla, his electric car company, uses the chatbot in its cars and possibly its robots, which are coming next year.

4 months ago Pending

Tesla is predicted to release its robots in 2026.

Tesla, his electric car company, uses the chatbot in its cars and possibly its robots, which are coming next year.

Pending

If capital markets cease to support OpenAI's current financing model, the debate regarding a government bailout for AI infrastructure will intensify.

If they don’t, the bailout debate Friar stumbled into will return—louder, sharper, and harder to ignore.

3 months ago Pending

If capital markets cease to support OpenAI's current financing model, the debate regarding a government bailout for AI infrastructure will intensify.

If they don’t, the bailout debate Friar stumbled into will return—louder, sharper, and harder to ignore.

Pending

50-year mortgages are predicted to be disastrous for home buyers.

stretching debt across half a century would likely be disastrous for home buyers

3 months ago Pending

50-year mortgages are predicted to be disastrous for home buyers.

stretching debt across half a century would likely be disastrous for home buyers

Pending

A lack of funding for news will lead to a cessation of original reporting, investigations, and deep dives, replaced by AI-generated summaries, press releases, and hallucinations.

If no one pays for the news, the news stops being reported. Investigations don’t happen. Deep dives into complex issues are replaced by AI summaries of press releases and hallucinations.

6 months ago Pending

A lack of funding for news will lead to a cessation of original reporting, investigations, and deep dives, replaced by AI-generated summaries, press releases, and hallucinations.

If no one pays for the news, the news stops being reported. Investigations don’t happen. Deep dives into complex issues are replaced by AI summaries of press releases and hallucinations.

Pending

Argentina's fixed-but-adjustable peso exchange rate system is predicted to collapse shortly after the October 2025 midterm elections.

The peso band may hold through the election, but history suggests it won’t hold much longer.

4 months ago Pending

Argentina's fixed-but-adjustable peso exchange rate system is predicted to collapse shortly after the October 2025 midterm elections.

The peso band may hold through the election, but history suggests it won’t hold much longer.

Pending

Electric vehicles will soon face a bidding war for electricity against well-funded big tech companies.

the electric vehicle is about to enter a bidding war for electricity against the world’s best funded companies.

2 months ago Pending

Electric vehicles will soon face a bidding war for electricity against well-funded big tech companies.

the electric vehicle is about to enter a bidding war for electricity against the world’s best funded companies.

Pending

The currently released Epstein files represent only a small portion of the total evidence, suggesting more information is yet to be uncovered or revealed.

We have to remember that what we're looking at today is just the tip of the iceberg.

2 months ago Pending

The currently released Epstein files represent only a small portion of the total evidence, suggesting more information is yet to be uncovered or revealed.

We have to remember that what we're looking at today is just the tip of the iceberg.

Pending

Sectors like healthcare and advanced manufacturing are likely to continue growing due to demographic trends, making them resilient career choices.

This means mastering AI tools, building networks, and choosing resilient sectors that are likely to continue growing due to demographic trends such as healthcare and advanced manufacturing.

3 months ago Pending

Sectors like healthcare and advanced manufacturing are likely to continue growing due to demographic trends, making them resilient career choices.

This means mastering AI tools, building networks, and choosing resilient sectors that are likely to continue growing due to demographic trends such as healthcare and advanced manufacturing.

Pending

The future competition (arms race) will be centered on defining and proving authenticity in a world with pervasive AI-generated content and influencers.

If the last defensible asset is authenticity, then the next arms race is over what it means to be real.

6 months ago Pending

The future competition (arms race) will be centered on defining and proving authenticity in a world with pervasive AI-generated content and influencers.

If the last defensible asset is authenticity, then the next arms race is over what it means to be real.

Pending

Chinese and Korean surplus EVs will flood the European market, as they cannot be sold to Americans.

They can’t sell their surplus EVs to Americans, so they will flood the only remaining open market: Europe.

2 months ago Pending

Chinese and Korean surplus EVs will flood the European market, as they cannot be sold to Americans.

They can’t sell their surplus EVs to Americans, so they will flood the only remaining open market: Europe.

Pending

The internal contradictions within the purportedly Epstein-authored letter will ensure it remains a subject of analysis by conspiracy theorists for many decades.

but its contradictions guarantee it'll be dissected by conspiracy theorists for decades to come.

2 months ago Pending

The internal contradictions within the purportedly Epstein-authored letter will ensure it remains a subject of analysis by conspiracy theorists for many decades.

but its contradictions guarantee it'll be dissected by conspiracy theorists for decades to come.

Pending

Dan Priest of PwC predicts that corporate structures might eventually shift to an hourglass shape, where AI automates middle management roles, enabling AI-native graduates to directly enter leadership positions.

3 months ago Pending

Pending

The crypto market currently exhibits characteristics similar to the 'froth' of the 1999 dot-com bubble.

If anything resembles the froth of 1999, it’s crypto - not trillion-dollar companies with fortress balance sheets.

3 months ago Pending

The crypto market currently exhibits characteristics similar to the 'froth' of the 1999 dot-com bubble.

If anything resembles the froth of 1999, it’s crypto - not trillion-dollar companies with fortress balance sheets.

Pending

Trusted online reviewers will lose the incentive to create high-quality, unbiased reviews if AI tools scrape and repackage their content without compensation.

If trusted reviewers lose traffic because their work is scraped and repackaged without attribution or compensation, their incentive to produce high-quality, unbiased reviews disappears.

6 months ago Pending

Trusted online reviewers will lose the incentive to create high-quality, unbiased reviews if AI tools scrape and repackage their content without compensation.

If trusted reviewers lose traffic because their work is scraped and repackaged without attribution or compensation, their incentive to produce high-quality, unbiased reviews disappears.

Pending

Conspiracy theories related to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal are predicted to persist and become a permanent aspect of the scandal due to ongoing unanswered questions and institutional failures.

the conspiracy theories surrounding Epstein are unlikely to fade. If anything, they have likely become a permanent feature of the overall scandal—filling the void left by unanswered questions and institutional failures.

7 months ago Pending

Conspiracy theories related to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal are predicted to persist and become a permanent aspect of the scandal due to ongoing unanswered questions and institutional failures.

Pending

Europe's 'green steel' offsets might give automakers a few more years of profitability from combustion engines but won't solve the underlying issue of losing the battery production war.

Europe’s pivot to 'green steel' offsets might buy its automakers a few more years of profitability from their piston engines, but it does nothing to address the fundamental reality that they have lost the battery war.

2 months ago Pending

Europe's 'green steel' offsets might give automakers a few more years of profitability from combustion engines but won't solve the underlying issue of losing the battery production war.

Pending

Recruiters warn that companies failing to hire junior employees today risk their existence within the next 15 years (by around 2040).

According to the FT, some recruiters are warning that failing to hire juniors today - puts a company's existence at risk within 15 years.

3 months ago Pending

Recruiters warn that companies failing to hire junior employees today risk their existence within the next 15 years (by around 2040).

According to the FT, some recruiters are warning that failing to hire juniors today - puts a company's existence at risk within 15 years.

Pending

Over the next decade, Western countries will focus on regulatory workarounds and hybrid trucks, while China will solidify its dominance in EV battery production.

While the West spends the next decade negotiating loopholes and refining hybrid trucks, China is finalizing its stranglehold on the only component that actually matters: the battery.

2 months ago Pending

Over the next decade, Western countries will focus on regulatory workarounds and hybrid trucks, while China will solidify its dominance in EV battery production.

While the West spends the next decade negotiating loopholes and refining hybrid trucks, China is finalizing its stranglehold on the only component that actually matters: the battery.

Pending

Trade deals under the current administration are unstable and likely to be constantly renegotiated in the coming years.

It is not at all obvious that these deals are set in stone – they might well be renegotiated constantly in the coming years.

7 months ago Pending

Trade deals under the current administration are unstable and likely to be constantly renegotiated in the coming years.

It is not at all obvious that these deals are set in stone – they might well be renegotiated constantly in the coming years.

Pending

The current trend of firms hiring fewer trainees, while saving short-term costs, risks hollowing out future leadership pipelines.

Firms are heavy with mid-career specialists and hire fewer trainees than ever before. This saves on the expense of training today - but risks hollowing out leadership pipelines.

3 months ago Pending

The current trend of firms hiring fewer trainees, while saving short-term costs, risks hollowing out future leadership pipelines.

Firms are heavy with mid-career specialists and hire fewer trainees than ever before. This saves on the expense of training today - but risks hollowing out leadership pipelines.

Pending

MicroStrategy's investment strategy in Bitcoin is predicted by the author to have a negative outcome for the company.

MicroStrategy – or strategy as it’s now called is trying a similar trick with its Bitcoin investments – which I don’t expect to end well…

3 months ago Pending

MicroStrategy's investment strategy in Bitcoin is predicted by the author to have a negative outcome for the company.

MicroStrategy – or strategy as it’s now called is trying a similar trick with its Bitcoin investments – which I don’t expect to end well…

Pending

AI-generated search answers will be influenced by advertising and commercial interests.

the answers you get - might be colored by the need to sell certain products.

6 months ago Pending

AI-generated search answers will be influenced by advertising and commercial interests.

the answers you get - might be colored by the need to sell certain products.

Pending

US trade policy under Trump is shifting to use tariffs for geopolitical alignment, leading to new trade agreements rewarding compliance with US objectives and penalizing economic entanglement with China.

This approach reflects what might be a broader shift in U.S. trade policy under Trump. Tariffs are no longer just a tool for protecting domestic industry—they are being used as a mechanism for enforcing geopolitical alignment. The UK deal, in this sense, might be a prototype for a new kind of trade agreement: one that rewards compliance with U.S. strategic objectives and penalizes economic entanglement with China.

7 months ago Pending

Pending

50-year mortgages would increase systemic risk in the financial system by magnifying prepayment risk and forcing aggressive, pro-cyclical hedging by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), which would amplify interest rate swings.

Longer maturities magnify prepayment risk, forcing GSEs into more aggressive hedging. That hedging is pro-cyclical—meaning it amplifies interest rate swings instead of smoothing them. Alan Greenspan worried about this dynamic with 30-year loans; a 50-year variant would crank systemic risk up another notch.

3 months ago Pending

Pending

Sales roles requiring in-person interaction and travel will continue to be resistant to automation, making the willingness to travel a competitive advantage in the job market.

Sales roles, which require travel and face-to-face relationship building, remain robust against automation. The willingness to get on a plane is becoming a competitive advantage.

3 months ago Pending

Sales roles requiring in-person interaction and travel will continue to be resistant to automation, making the willingness to travel a competitive advantage in the job market.

Sales roles, which require travel and face-to-face relationship building, remain robust against automation. The willingness to get on a plane is becoming a competitive advantage.

Pending

Petrol cars in Europe will become luxury goods due to new regulations and compliance costs.

This essentially turns the petrol car from a mass-market commodity into a luxury good.

2 months ago Pending

Petrol cars in Europe will become luxury goods due to new regulations and compliance costs.

This essentially turns the petrol car from a mass-market commodity into a luxury good.

Pending

Longer mortgages (like 50-year) will push house prices higher, leading to slower equity growth and increased exposure to market downturns for borrowers.

You can play around with monthly payments, but all that will do is push house prices even higher - leaving borrowers with slower equity growth and greater exposure to downturns.

3 months ago Pending

Longer mortgages (like 50-year) will push house prices higher, leading to slower equity growth and increased exposure to market downturns for borrowers.

You can play around with monthly payments, but all that will do is push house prices even higher - leaving borrowers with slower equity growth and greater exposure to downturns.

Pending

Less glamorous jobs (e.g., substitute teachers, prison guards, traffic flaggers) will offer stability because they are difficult to automate and have falling turnover rates.

Some of these less glamorous jobs offer what many office roles no longer guarantee: stability. They are hard to automate, and turnover in these roles is falling.

3 months ago Pending

Less glamorous jobs (e.g., substitute teachers, prison guards, traffic flaggers) will offer stability because they are difficult to automate and have falling turnover rates.

Some of these less glamorous jobs offer what many office roles no longer guarantee: stability. They are hard to automate, and turnover in these roles is falling.

Pending

Increased minimum wages will make entry-level graduates more expensive, leading firms to reduce or cease hiring of trainees in favor of experienced candidates.

In the past, a lower starting salary offset the cost of on-the-job training. Today, graduates are more expensive. When the cost of an inexperienced worker rivals that of a worker with a few years of experience, the rational employer chooses the proven candidate every time. Since trainees can’t generate immediate value to justify their new price tag, firms close the door to hiring them.

3 months ago Pending

Increased minimum wages will make entry-level graduates more expensive, leading firms to reduce or cease hiring of trainees in favor of experienced candidates.

Pending

The private equity industry will eventually be compelled to demonstrate genuine value through actual company exits and investor distributions, moving beyond reliance on marketing narratives.

But eventually, the water seen in the distance has to be real. And for private equity, that means actual exits, actual distributions, and fewer PowerPoint slides about “transformational value creation.”

4 months ago Pending

The private equity industry will eventually be compelled to demonstrate genuine value through actual company exits and investor distributions, moving beyond reliance on marketing narratives.

Pending

First-time homebuyers (aged 40) using a 50-year mortgage would still be making payments into their 90s.

For first-time buyers who are now only entering the market at the age of 40, the arithmetic is stark: they would still be making mortgage payments into their 90s.

3 months ago Pending

First-time homebuyers (aged 40) using a 50-year mortgage would still be making payments into their 90s.

For first-time buyers who are now only entering the market at the age of 40, the arithmetic is stark: they would still be making mortgage payments into their 90s.

Pending

Leading economic indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening.

While initial jobless claims remain low, these leading indicators suggest the US labor market is weakening.

3 months ago Pending

Leading economic indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening.

While initial jobless claims remain low, these leading indicators suggest the US labor market is weakening.

Pending

If 50-year mortgages increase buying power through lower payments, home prices will be bid up due to existing supply shortages, thereby negating any affordability improvements.

3 months ago Pending

If 50-year mortgages increase buying power through lower payments, home prices will be bid up due to existing supply shortages, thereby negating any affordability improvements.

Pending

Retail investors who opt into private equity products are likely to encounter unintended negative consequences, despite the products being marketed positively.

Retail investors are being sold a feature — but they may instead be buying a bug.

4 months ago Pending

Retail investors who opt into private equity products are likely to encounter unintended negative consequences, despite the products being marketed positively.

Retail investors are being sold a feature — but they may instead be buying a bug.

Pending

Monthly payments on 50-year mortgages, due to higher interest rates for increased risk, would barely change or could even rise compared to 30-year mortgages.

With the higher interest rate - the monthly payment would barely change—and in some cases, it would even rise – and even meme stock investors won’t sign up for a higher monthly payment that continues on for twenty additional years. That’s just not affordability…

3 months ago Pending

Monthly payments on 50-year mortgages, due to higher interest rates for increased risk, would barely change or could even rise compared to 30-year mortgages.

Pending

American retail investors are unlikely to significantly adopt private equity products in their 401(k)s, given their historical preference for lower-fee investments and rejection of underperformance.

I’m not sure to what extent American investors will fall for this pitch – the one thing most investors have learned over the years is that high fee investments reduce returns. Average expense ratios paid by investors has been falling year after year – as investors refuse to pay up for underperformance.

4 months ago Pending

American retail investors are unlikely to significantly adopt private equity products in their 401(k)s, given their historical preference for lower-fee investments and rejection of underperformance.

Pending

Constantly changing US tariffs will likely reduce business growth for both US-based and international firms.

The constantly changing nature of these tariffs makes the situation particularly difficult for businesses - and is likely reducing growth both at US-based firms and international firms.

3 months ago Pending

Constantly changing US tariffs will likely reduce business growth for both US-based and international firms.

The constantly changing nature of these tariffs makes the situation particularly difficult for businesses - and is likely reducing growth both at US-based firms and international firms.

Pending

The private equity industry's reputation for stability will continue to be challenged until current questions regarding liquidity and valuations are adequately resolved.

Until those questions have better answers, the industry’s reputation for stability will remain under pressure.

4 months ago Pending

The private equity industry's reputation for stability will continue to be challenged until current questions regarding liquidity and valuations are adequately resolved.

Until those questions have better answers, the industry’s reputation for stability will remain under pressure.

Pending

Due to AI-generated applications, employers will increasingly rely on offline networks and personal introductions for hiring, making personal connections the primary hiring signal.

Just as buyers in Akerlof's market stopped buying used cars, employers are stopping the open hiring process. They retreat to offline networks and nepotism to find people they feel they can trust. The issue is that if everyone sounds perfect on paper, the only signal left is a personal introduction.

3 months ago Pending

Due to AI-generated applications, employers will increasingly rely on offline networks and personal introductions for hiring, making personal connections the primary hiring signal.

Pending

Sectors like healthcare, driven by an aging population, will remain stable and less susceptible to automation, indicating future demand for jobs.

An aging population requires care, and automation struggles with this type of task. Consequently, the advice for the next generation is to pay attention to demographics so that you can be ahead of the big trends shaping the workplace.

3 months ago Pending

Sectors like healthcare, driven by an aging population, will remain stable and less susceptible to automation, indicating future demand for jobs.

Pending

AI is being trained by OpenAI to replace the grunt work performed by junior investment bankers.

Bloomberg reported last month that OpenAI had hired more than 100 ex-investment bankers to train its AI on how to build financial models as it looks to replace the hours of grunt work performed by junior bankers across the industry.

3 months ago Pending

AI is being trained by OpenAI to replace the grunt work performed by junior investment bankers.

Pending

Conspiracy theories related to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal are predicted to persist indefinitely and become a permanent aspect of the scandal due to unanswered questions and institutional failures.

7 months ago Pending

Conspiracy theories related to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal are predicted to persist indefinitely and become a permanent aspect of the scandal due to unanswered questions and institutional failures.

Pending

Starting January 2025, the UK government expects a 10% average fee increase in independent schools due to 20% VAT, leading up to 35,000 pupils to shift to state schools.

From January 2025, independent schools are subject to 20% VAT. The government expects a 10% average fee increase and up to 35,000 pupils to shift to state schools.

5 months ago Pending

Starting January 2025, the UK government expects a 10% average fee increase in independent schools due to 20% VAT, leading up to 35,000 pupils to shift to state schools.

From January 2025, independent schools are subject to 20% VAT. The government expects a 10% average fee increase and up to 35,000 pupils to shift to state schools.

Pending

The UK Treasury forecasts an additional £12.7 billion in revenue over five years due to changes in non-dom tax rules.

The Treasury forecasts £12.7 billion pounds in revenue over five years.

5 months ago Pending

The UK Treasury forecasts an additional £12.7 billion in revenue over five years due to changes in non-dom tax rules.

The Treasury forecasts £12.7 billion pounds in revenue over five years.

Pending

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects up to 25% of non-domiciled residents to leave the UK.

The Office for Budget Responsibility say that they expect up to 25% of non-doms to leave the UK.

5 months ago Pending

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects up to 25% of non-domiciled residents to leave the UK.

The Office for Budget Responsibility say that they expect up to 25% of non-doms to leave the UK.

Pending

Drugmakers planned to increase prices on at least 250 branded medications in the US by approximately 4.5% in 2025.

Reuters reported last December that Drugmakers planned to raise prices in the US on at least 250 branded medications by approximately 4.5% for 2025.

9 months ago Pending

Drugmakers planned to increase prices on at least 250 branded medications in the US by approximately 4.5% in 2025.

Reuters reported last December that Drugmakers planned to raise prices in the US on at least 250 branded medications by approximately 4.5% for 2025.

Pending

Compounded generic versions of GLP1 drugs, popular for weight loss, are ceasing to be available.

The compounded versions were very popular as cheaper alternatives for people whose insurance didn’t cover the drug for weight loss – but now they are going away.

9 months ago Pending

Compounded generic versions of GLP1 drugs, popular for weight loss, are ceasing to be available.

The compounded versions were very popular as cheaper alternatives for people whose insurance didn’t cover the drug for weight loss – but now they are going away.

Pending

Florida's drug importation program will have a limited effect on lowering drug costs due to generic drugs being cheaper in the US than Canada and comprising most prescriptions.

The plan would only have a limited effect for Florida – as generic drugs are already fifteen to twenty percent cheaper in the United States than in Canada – and these make up the majority of prescriptions.

9 months ago Pending

Florida's drug importation program will have a limited effect on lowering drug costs due to generic drugs being cheaper in the US than Canada and comprising most prescriptions.

Pending

Novo Nordisk will offer its GLP1 drug at a discount through telehealth providers to reach a broader market.

CNBC reported last month that Novo Nordisk – the drugs manufacturer will make the drug available at a discount through telehealth providers – in order to address a larger market.

9 months ago Pending

Novo Nordisk will offer its GLP1 drug at a discount through telehealth providers to reach a broader market.

CNBC reported last month that Novo Nordisk – the drugs manufacturer will make the drug available at a discount through telehealth providers – in order to address a larger market.

Pending

The era of easily earned 'quiet profits' for professional traders in India’s derivatives market is likely coming to an end due to increased scrutiny following the Jane Street case.

As Jane Street prepares its legal defense and SEBI continues its investigation, one thing is clear: the era of quiet profits being earned by professional traders in India’s derivatives market may be over.

7 months ago Pending

The era of easily earned 'quiet profits' for professional traders in India’s derivatives market is likely coming to an end due to increased scrutiny following the Jane Street case.

Pending

Convicted Chinese fraudster Guo Wengui and Sean John Combs (Diddy) plan to create an artificial intelligence platform together after their release from jail.

he and Sean John Combs (who has a variety of aliases) had discussed creating an artificial intelligence platform together when they are released from jail – so we have that to look forward to.

4 months ago Pending

Convicted Chinese fraudster Guo Wengui and Sean John Combs (Diddy) plan to create an artificial intelligence platform together after their release from jail.

he and Sean John Combs (who has a variety of aliases) had discussed creating an artificial intelligence platform together when they are released from jail – so we have that to look forward to.

Pending

Jim Chanos predicts that the chaotic bankruptcy of First Brands Group will signal a new wave of corporate collapses.

The short seller Jim Chanos... told the Financial Times yesterday that First Brands Group’s chaotic bankruptcy could augur a new wave of corporate collapses.

4 months ago Pending

Jim Chanos predicts that the chaotic bankruptcy of First Brands Group will signal a new wave of corporate collapses.

The short seller Jim Chanos... told the Financial Times yesterday that First Brands Group’s chaotic bankruptcy could augur a new wave of corporate collapses.

Pending

Investors in the $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts are betting that AI will significantly reduce the company's operating costs, enabling them to manage a large debt load.

The deal, valued at $55 billion dollars, is the biggest leveraged buyout in history... The deal includes twenty billion dollars in debt and is described by the FT as “a huge bet that AI can significantly cut the companies operating costs, allowing the equity investors to manage a large debt load on a company that historically carried limited net debt.”

4 months ago Pending

Investors in the $55 billion leveraged buyout of Electronic Arts are betting that AI will significantly reduce the company's operating costs, enabling them to manage a large debt load.

Pending

Redfin economists predict that 30-year mortgage rates will remain around 6.75% through the end of 2025.

Redfin economists expect them to stay in that range through year-end.

6 months ago Pending

Redfin economists predict that 30-year mortgage rates will remain around 6.75% through the end of 2025.

Redfin economists expect them to stay in that range through year-end.

Pending

New tariffs are expected to increase construction material prices, and anti-immigration policies will reduce the number of skilled construction workers.

The new tariffs can be expected to push construction material prices even higher and anti-immigration policies will reduce the number of skilled construction workers in the country

6 months ago Pending

New tariffs are expected to increase construction material prices, and anti-immigration policies will reduce the number of skilled construction workers.

The new tariffs can be expected to push construction material prices even higher and anti-immigration policies will reduce the number of skilled construction workers in the country

Pending

The AI market, if it is indeed a bubble, may still burst at some future point.

One way or another, the AI bubble, if there is one, may still pop, but it didn’t pop this week.

1 year ago Pending

The AI market, if it is indeed a bubble, may still burst at some future point.

One way or another, the AI bubble, if there is one, may still pop, but it didn’t pop this week.

Pending

If AI models become easily replicable, they will transform into a commodity business, making it challenging to charge premium prices.

If the models are easily replicated – it will be difficult to charge a lot for them – and it just becomes a commodity business like selling mobile phone contracts.

1 year ago Pending

If AI models become easily replicable, they will transform into a commodity business, making it challenging to charge premium prices.

If the models are easily replicated – it will be difficult to charge a lot for them – and it just becomes a commodity business like selling mobile phone contracts.

Pending

If AI adoption is currently limited by cost, efficiency improvements will lead to greater commercial use by businesses finding more applications for cheaper AI.

If adoption is being held back by price, then efficiency gains should lead to greater use. I can see this being the case for businesses who have commercial uses for AI – and the cheaper it is, the more commercial uses they might find...

1 year ago Pending

If AI adoption is currently limited by cost, efficiency improvements will lead to greater commercial use by businesses finding more applications for cheaper AI.

Pending

DeepSeek's efficiency could reduce the AI model development spending for big tech companies and lead to a more distributed, rather than 'winner-takes-all,' AI market.

Deepseek’s efficiency might be good for big tech – as it means that they might not need to spend nearly as much on building their AI models as was previously expected – and it also means that we might not be in a winner takes all model – like was the case for internet search.

1 year ago Pending

DeepSeek's efficiency could reduce the AI model development spending for big tech companies and lead to a more distributed, rather than 'winner-takes-all,' AI market.

Pending

DeepSeek's success with less advanced chips implies increased competition in both AI model development and AI chip manufacturing.

The fact that DeepSeek was able to build a reasoning model with Nvidia’s older, slower chips suggests that the door is open to other competitors – not just in building AI models but also in building chips.

1 year ago Pending

DeepSeek's success with less advanced chips implies increased competition in both AI model development and AI chip manufacturing.

Pending

Most current leading AI companies will not exist within the next decade.

There is no reason to think that any of the leading AI companies today will even be around in a decade.

1 year ago Pending

Most current leading AI companies will not exist within the next decade.

There is no reason to think that any of the leading AI companies today will even be around in a decade.

Pending

Geopolitical mistrust will lead to different AI models being adopted in various regions globally.

It is quite possible that in different parts of the world different AI models will be used because countries don’t trust each other.

1 year ago Pending

Geopolitical mistrust will lead to different AI models being adopted in various regions globally.

It is quite possible that in different parts of the world different AI models will be used because countries don’t trust each other.

Pending

DeepSeek is unlikely to be the long-term dominant AI model; the future AI market structure remains uncertain regarding the number of winners.

At present there is no reason to expect DeepSeek to be the long term winner – firstly because it is too much of a security risk in countries that are worried about Chinese influence – but mostly because it’s way too early to know who the overall winner will be – or even how many winners there’ll be.

1 year ago Pending

DeepSeek is unlikely to be the long-term dominant AI model; the future AI market structure remains uncertain regarding the number of winners.

Pending

As the AI development race intensifies, particularly with open-source and customizable models, discussions around AI safety will likely decrease.

Now that the AI race is heating up, its not obvious that we will hear a lot more about AI safety – especially if leading models are open source, widely available and can be modified by users.

1 year ago Pending

As the AI development race intensifies, particularly with open-source and customizable models, discussions around AI safety will likely decrease.

Now that the AI race is heating up, its not obvious that we will hear a lot more about AI safety – especially if leading models are open source, widely available and can be modified by users.

Pending

DeepSeek's demonstrated efficiencies will substantially lower the cost of building advanced AI models for future developers adopting similar methods.

The thing is that now that DeepSeek have shown the way, these efficiencies will significantly reduce the cost to those who follow in their footsteps – but that still doesn’t mean that you can do the same and build an advanced AI model with six million dollars.

1 year ago Pending

DeepSeek's demonstrated efficiencies will substantially lower the cost of building advanced AI models for future developers adopting similar methods.

Pending

There will be continued high demand for Nvidia chips for AI inference data centers due to reasoning models benefiting from more processing power, assuming no drastic technological shifts.

So, you don’t just need a big data center to train the models anymore – you also need one to run them as the more processing power these models have access to the smarter they get. The same chips needed for training AI are also used in inference data centers. Now DeepSeek is more efficient at inference than other models too and can use the cheaper Nvidia chips – but it is still smarter when it has more processing power – so there is still a reason to believe that there’s plenty of demand for Nvidia chips – as long as the tech doesn’t change again.

1 year ago Pending

There will be continued high demand for Nvidia chips for AI inference data centers due to reasoning models benefiting from more processing power, assuming no drastic technological shifts.

Pending

Reinsurance premiums will likely increase globally due to the LA wildfires, causing all insurance buyers to indirectly pay for the disaster.

this will likely push up reinsurance premiums both in California and in the rest of the world so to a certain extent everyone who buys insurance will be paying for this disaster

1 year ago Pending

Reinsurance premiums will likely increase globally due to the LA wildfires, causing all insurance buyers to indirectly pay for the disaster.

this will likely push up reinsurance premiums both in California and in the rest of the world so to a certain extent everyone who buys insurance will be paying for this disaster

Pending

Insurance prices are expected to rise in California and other disaster-prone areas in the coming years.

in the coming years Insurance prices can be expected to rise in California and in other places susceptible to large scale disasters like this

1 year ago Pending

Insurance prices are expected to rise in California and other disaster-prone areas in the coming years.

in the coming years Insurance prices can be expected to rise in California and in other places susceptible to large scale disasters like this

Pending

The LA wildfires are not expected to cause any insurance companies to go bankrupt.

this event is not expected to push any insurance companies into bankruptcy

1 year ago Pending

The LA wildfires are not expected to cause any insurance companies to go bankrupt.

this event is not expected to push any insurance companies into bankruptcy

Pending

People are likely to rebuild bigger and more luxurious homes after the fires, following past trends.

people will likely just build bigger and more luxurious homes where their old home used to be as that's what generally happened after other fires

1 year ago Pending

People are likely to rebuild bigger and more luxurious homes after the fires, following past trends.

people will likely just build bigger and more luxurious homes where their old home used to be as that's what generally happened after other fires

Pending

High demand for rental properties in California will significantly increase prices in the short term.

the high demand for rental properties will push prices up a lot of

1 year ago Pending

High demand for rental properties in California will significantly increase prices in the short term.

the high demand for rental properties will push prices up a lot of

Pending

Goldman Sachs estimates the fires will reduce the Labor Department's January employment report by 15,000 to 25,000 positions.

Goldman estimates that the fires will knock between 15 and 25,000 positions off the labor Department's employment report for January

1 year ago Pending

Goldman Sachs estimates the fires will reduce the Labor Department's January employment report by 15,000 to 25,000 positions.

Goldman estimates that the fires will knock between 15 and 25,000 positions off the labor Department's employment report for January

Pending

Reconstruction costs in LA could more than double, leading to many insured homeowners being underinsured.

prices could more than double meaning that many people who had Insurance may find that they were still underinsured

1 year ago Pending

Reconstruction costs in LA could more than double, leading to many insured homeowners being underinsured.

prices could more than double meaning that many people who had Insurance may find that they were still underinsured

Pending

Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate the insurance industry could lose up to $40 billion due to the fires.

estimates from Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs say that the insurance industry may lose as much as $40 billion

1 year ago Pending

Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs estimate the insurance industry could lose up to $40 billion due to the fires.

estimates from Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs say that the insurance industry may lose as much as $40 billion

Pending

AccuWeather estimates the LA wildfires may cost up to $275 billion in damage.

ACU weather has estimated that the fires May cost as much as $275 billion in damage

1 year ago Pending

AccuWeather estimates the LA wildfires may cost up to $275 billion in damage.

ACU weather has estimated that the fires May cost as much as $275 billion in damage

Pending

The Los Angeles wildfires are predicted to be the most expensive wildfires in US history.

experts are predicting that they will be the most expensive wildfires in US history

1 year ago Pending

The Los Angeles wildfires are predicted to be the most expensive wildfires in US history.

experts are predicting that they will be the most expensive wildfires in US history

Pending

Edison International (EIX) is unlikely to go bankrupt even if found liable for the Eaton fire, due to its participation in California's $21 billion Wildfire Fund.

even if Edison International is found liable for the eaten fire it still is unlikely to go bankrupt like pg& did because of its participation in California's 21 billion dollar Wildfire fund

1 year ago Pending

Edison International (EIX) is unlikely to go bankrupt even if found liable for the Eaton fire, due to its participation in California's $21 billion Wildfire Fund.

even if Edison International is found liable for the eaten fire it still is unlikely to go bankrupt like pg& did because of its participation in California's 21 billion dollar Wildfire fund

Pending

Tariffs could hit the Chinese economy hardest by causing a severe slowdown in the US economy, leading to a dry up of American demand. (The Economist)

the tariffs could hit the Chinese economy hardest – by causing such a severe slowdown in the US economy – that American demand dries up.

10 months ago Pending

Tariffs could hit the Chinese economy hardest by causing a severe slowdown in the US economy, leading to a dry up of American demand. (The Economist)

the tariffs could hit the Chinese economy hardest – by causing such a severe slowdown in the US economy – that American demand dries up.

Pending

Tariffs on Apple iPhones are expected to return in about a month (from April 2025). (Nutlick, US Commerce Secretary)

When asked to clarify whether tariffs on Apple iPhones might “come back on in a month or so”, Nutlick replied: “Correct. That’s right…'

10 months ago Pending

Tariffs on Apple iPhones are expected to return in about a month (from April 2025). (Nutlick, US Commerce Secretary)

When asked to clarify whether tariffs on Apple iPhones might “come back on in a month or so”, Nutlick replied: “Correct. That’s right…'

Pending

Semiconductor tariffs, including on certain tech products, are expected to be implemented in a month or two (from April 2025). (US Commerce Secretary)

products are included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two.”

10 months ago Pending

Semiconductor tariffs, including on certain tech products, are expected to be implemented in a month or two (from April 2025). (US Commerce Secretary)

products are included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two.”

Pending

If new factories are built in the US due to tariffs, consumers will pay more for cars than anyone else globally due to factory and higher wage costs.

Should that happen – they will have to pass on the cost of building a new factory and the higher wage costs to American consumers – who will then be paying more for cars than anyone else in the world.

10 months ago Pending

If new factories are built in the US due to tariffs, consumers will pay more for cars than anyone else globally due to factory and higher wage costs.

Pending

Tariffs are unlikely to encourage companies to open new factories until the tariffs are permanent and the investment's long-term profitability is certain.

It seems unlikely that tariffs will encourage companies to open new factories until they are certain that the new tariffs are permanent and that investing billions of dollars in new production capacity will pay off for them in the long run.

10 months ago Pending

Tariffs are unlikely to encourage companies to open new factories until the tariffs are permanent and the investment's long-term profitability is certain.

Pending

If manufacturers discontinue affordable models, the average American will no longer be able to afford a new car.

if manufacturers are going to get rid of affordable models – the days of the average American being able to afford a new car will be over.

10 months ago Pending

If manufacturers discontinue affordable models, the average American will no longer be able to afford a new car.

if manufacturers are going to get rid of affordable models – the days of the average American being able to afford a new car will be over.

Pending

US automakers are likely to focus on building larger, heavier SUVs and pickup trucks to absorb tariff costs without passing them to customers. (KPMG)

KPMG are predicting that US automakers – who are slightly less impacted than foreign brands - are likely to focus on building larger, heavier SUV’s and pickup trucks, which are already mostly assembled in the United States and have the most markup - giving automakers the most room to absorb the cost of tariffs without passing them on to customers.

10 months ago Pending

US automakers are likely to focus on building larger, heavier SUVs and pickup trucks to absorb tariff costs without passing them to customers. (KPMG)

Pending

US ports could become 'quite ugly' and 'fill up fast' with imported vehicles in a few weeks if tariffs are not softened. (Industry executive)

One industry executive warned that the piling of imported vehicles at American ports could get “quite ugly” with ports set to “fill up fast” in a few weeks if the US tariffs are not softened.

10 months ago Pending

US ports could become 'quite ugly' and 'fill up fast' with imported vehicles in a few weeks if tariffs are not softened. (Industry executive)

One industry executive warned that the piling of imported vehicles at American ports could get “quite ugly” with ports set to “fill up fast” in a few weeks if the US tariffs are not softened.

Pending

Tariffs will cost hourly US autoworkers $1,000-$5,000 in profit-sharing in 2025, and reduce bonuses/earnings for salaried workers, executives, and suppliers. (Detroit Free Press research)

the tariffs will cost American autoworkers who are paid by the hour between one and five thousand dollars in profit-sharing for this year and that there will be reductions in bonuses and earnings for salaried workers, executives and those who work for suppliers, too.

10 months ago Pending

Tariffs will cost hourly US autoworkers $1,000-$5,000 in profit-sharing in 2025, and reduce bonuses/earnings for salaried workers, executives, and suppliers. (Detroit Free Press research)

Pending

The big three US automakers will likely see a reduction of about $5 billion in North American operating profits for the rest of 2025 due to tariffs. (Detroit Free Press research)

the big three American automakers will likely see a reduction of about $5 billion dollars in 'operating profits' in North America for the rest of this year due to tariffs.

10 months ago Pending

The big three US automakers will likely see a reduction of about $5 billion in North American operating profits for the rest of 2025 due to tariffs. (Detroit Free Press research)

the big three American automakers will likely see a reduction of about $5 billion dollars in 'operating profits' in North America for the rest of this year due to tariffs.

Pending

Average imported vehicles in the US will face $8,722 in additional taxes, while the Detroit Three will face $8,641, making them $81 cheaper than foreign competition. (Center for Automotive Research)

They estimate that the average imported vehicle sold in the US will be hit with additional taxes of $8,722 dollars while the Detroit Three will be hit with an additional tax of $8,641 dollars – making them $81 dollars cheaper than the foreign competition.

10 months ago Pending

Average imported vehicles in the US will face $8,722 in additional taxes, while the Detroit Three will face $8,641, making them $81 cheaper than foreign competition. (Center for Automotive Research)

Pending

European nations will likely be forced to erect their own trade barriers to protect their markets if China diverts exports from the US to Europe.

The FT reports that European leaders are worried that China will divert exports from America to Europe – meaning that they will have to erect trade barriers too to defend their markets.

11 months ago Pending

European nations will likely be forced to erect their own trade barriers to protect their markets if China diverts exports from the US to Europe.

The FT reports that European leaders are worried that China will divert exports from America to Europe – meaning that they will have to erect trade barriers too to defend their markets.

Pending

Trump's auto tariffs will increase costs for US automakers by about $108 billion in 2025. (Center for Automotive Research)

Trump's auto tariffs will increase costs by about $108 billion for U.S. automakers in 2025 alone.

10 months ago Pending

Trump's auto tariffs will increase costs for US automakers by about $108 billion in 2025. (Center for Automotive Research)

Trump's auto tariffs will increase costs by about $108 billion for U.S. automakers in 2025 alone.

Pending

Tariffs could reduce new auto purchases by up to 20% and raise average car prices for US consumers by $5,000 to $10,000. (Wedbush analysts)

the tariffs could reduce new auto purchases by up to 20 per cent and raise the prices of a typical car to a US consumer by five to ten thousand dollars.

10 months ago Pending

Tariffs could reduce new auto purchases by up to 20% and raise average car prices for US consumers by $5,000 to $10,000. (Wedbush analysts)

the tariffs could reduce new auto purchases by up to 20 per cent and raise the prices of a typical car to a US consumer by five to ten thousand dollars.

Pending

The resource-intensive process of checking every imported product under new tariffs could lead to a complete halt in trade.

checking every product that enters a country will be incredibly resource-intensive and could bring trade to a grinding halt.

11 months ago Pending

The resource-intensive process of checking every imported product under new tariffs could lead to a complete halt in trade.

checking every product that enters a country will be incredibly resource-intensive and could bring trade to a grinding halt.

Pending

Genuine trade negotiations are unlikely to be completed quickly enough to prevent harm to major US businesses.

I don’t see how genuine negotiations could be done at the speed needed to avoid harming Americas best businesses.

11 months ago Pending

Genuine trade negotiations are unlikely to be completed quickly enough to prevent harm to major US businesses.

I don’t see how genuine negotiations could be done at the speed needed to avoid harming Americas best businesses.

Pending

If tariffs remain and escalate, it would be 'disastrous' for both the US and world economies. (Arthur Laffer)

if the tariffs remain in force and we see an escalation - it would be 'disastrous' for both America and the world economy.

10 months ago Pending

If tariffs remain and escalate, it would be 'disastrous' for both the US and world economies. (Arthur Laffer)

if the tariffs remain in force and we see an escalation - it would be 'disastrous' for both America and the world economy.

Pending

Auto tariffs could add almost $5,000 to the cost of new cars and weaken the competitiveness of US automakers. (Arthur Laffer)

the auto tariffs could add almost five thousand dollars to the cost of new cars when they kick in and that the taxes could weaken the ability of U.S. automakers to compete with their foreign counterparts.

10 months ago Pending

Auto tariffs could add almost $5,000 to the cost of new cars and weaken the competitiveness of US automakers. (Arthur Laffer)

Pending

US domestic vanilla growing and denim weaving industries are expected to grow, with jobs returning onshore, due to new tariffs.

so you can expect to see a lot of growth in Americas domestic vanilla growing industry and denim weaving industry as those jobs - which pay as much as 500 dollars per year are brought back onshore.

11 months ago Pending

US domestic vanilla growing and denim weaving industries are expected to grow, with jobs returning onshore, due to new tariffs.

so you can expect to see a lot of growth in Americas domestic vanilla growing industry and denim weaving industry as those jobs - which pay as much as 500 dollars per year are brought back onshore.

Pending

New-car prices in the US are expected to rise dramatically by the second half of 2025, leading to a noticeable slowdown in sales. (Cox Automotive economists)

They say in their report that they expect new-car prices to rise dramatically by the second half of the year, slowing sales noticeably.

10 months ago Pending

New-car prices in the US are expected to rise dramatically by the second half of 2025, leading to a noticeable slowdown in sales. (Cox Automotive economists)

They say in their report that they expect new-car prices to rise dramatically by the second half of the year, slowing sales noticeably.

Pending

The rush to buy new cars in the US might continue into May 2025, or until pre-tariff inventory is depleted. (Cox Automotive economists)

the rush to buy new cars might continue into May, or until whenever the inventory that dealers built up before the tariffs is drawn down by anxious consumers.

10 months ago Pending

The rush to buy new cars in the US might continue into May 2025, or until pre-tariff inventory is depleted. (Cox Automotive economists)

the rush to buy new cars might continue into May, or until whenever the inventory that dealers built up before the tariffs is drawn down by anxious consumers.

Pending

Tariffs are expected to drive up the prices of both new and used cars in the US in 2025.

as these tariffs are expected to drive up the prices of both new and used cars this year.

10 months ago Pending

Tariffs are expected to drive up the prices of both new and used cars in the US in 2025.

as these tariffs are expected to drive up the prices of both new and used cars this year.

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan suggest that reduced retiree benefits could incentivize the working population to increase their retirement savings due to concerns about the social safety net's reliability.

They say that lower retiree benefits might incentivize the working age population to save more for retirement as they see the social safety net failing.

11 months ago Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan suggest that reduced retiree benefits could incentivize the working population to increase their retirement savings due to concerns about the social safety net's reliability.

They say that lower retiree benefits might incentivize the working age population to save more for retirement as they see the social safety net failing.

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that if tax rates remain unchanged, retirees will receive lower benefit payouts.

They say that if tax rates stay the same – the expectation is then that there will be lower payouts for retirees.

11 months ago Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that if tax rates remain unchanged, retirees will receive lower benefit payouts.

They say that if tax rates stay the same – the expectation is then that there will be lower payouts for retirees.

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that retirement ages and tax rates will necessarily increase to fund senior benefits.

They argue that retirement ages will have to increase and tax rates will have to go up to pay for senior benefits.

11 months ago Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that retirement ages and tax rates will necessarily increase to fund senior benefits.

They argue that retirement ages will have to increase and tax rates will have to go up to pay for senior benefits.

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that retirees spending down their savings will lead to an increase in interest rates in the coming years.

They argue that this should push up interest rates in the coming years.

11 months ago Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that retirees spending down their savings will lead to an increase in interest rates in the coming years.

They argue that this should push up interest rates in the coming years.

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan expect a decline in inequality in developed nations, but also anticipate reduced economic output and problems similar to Japan's, unless there is a major productivity boost.

Goodhart and Pradhan expect to see a decline in inequality in the developed world – but unless there is a major productivity boost – they say that we can expect to see reduced output – and suffer many of the problems seen in Japan today.

11 months ago Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan expect a decline in inequality in developed nations, but also anticipate reduced economic output and problems similar to Japan's, unless there is a major productivity boost.

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict increased worker bargaining power and worsening labor shortages in developed nations as the working-age population declines and consumption shifts, particularly if immigration restrictions remain or increase.

On top of this – as the supply of workers falls – their bargaining power in wage negotiations will grow. We are already seeing shortages of labor in the developed world – and as the working age population declines – and the consumption basket changes this can be expected to become more of a problem – especially if immigration restrictions stay in place or grow.

11 months ago Pending

Pending

Goodhart and Pradhan predict that the deflationary effects of globalization will reverse as Western consumption shifts from physical goods to non-importable services like healthcare and personal services.

As the consumption of western consumers switches from physical goods towards healthcare and personal services – they argue that deflationary effects of globalization will reverse.

11 months ago Pending

As the consumption of western consumers switches from physical goods towards healthcare and personal services – they argue that deflationary effects of globalization will reverse.

Pending

By 2050, every wealthy nation (without migration) will have a worker-to-retiree ratio lower than Japan's current level of 1.83:1.

Unfortunately – without migration - every rich country in the world will have a lower ratio of workers to retirees by 2050 than Japan has today.

11 months ago Pending

By 2050, every wealthy nation (without migration) will have a worker-to-retiree ratio lower than Japan's current level of 1.83:1.

Unfortunately – without migration - every rich country in the world will have a lower ratio of workers to retirees by 2050 than Japan has today.

Pending

The author predicts that The Line project in Saudi Arabia will definitely proceed and be successful.

I’m actually a big believer in that project – and the respected journalist Johnny Harris even went out there a few months ago and filmed a bunch of dump trucks – which means that the project is definitely going ahead – and that it will definitely be eh successful.

1 year ago Pending

The author predicts that The Line project in Saudi Arabia will definitely proceed and be successful.

Pending

The author sarcastically predicts that Elon Musk's proposed Hyperloop tunnel from the US to Europe will not be completed within one to two years from February 2025.

until Elon has completed his tunnel to Europe – which is probably only a year or two away – I wouldn’t bet on projects that involve a hyperloop.

1 year ago Pending

The author sarcastically predicts that Elon Musk's proposed Hyperloop tunnel from the US to Europe will not be completed within one to two years from February 2025.

until Elon has completed his tunnel to Europe – which is probably only a year or two away – I wouldn’t bet on projects that involve a hyperloop.

Pending

To maintain the current worker-to-retiree support ratio, developed nations will need to import 450 million workers over the next 25 years.

He says that if you wanted to maintain the support ratio of workers to those over the age of 65 at its current level - the rich world would need to import 450 million workers in the next twenty five years.

11 months ago Pending

To maintain the current worker-to-retiree support ratio, developed nations will need to import 450 million workers over the next 25 years.

Pending

Italy's labor force to over-65 ratio will drop to 0.88 by 2050 if no migration occurs, reaching unprecedented dependency ratios.

According to Lant Pritchett at the London School of Economics – if no migration occurs – by 2050 Italy will have 0.88 people in the labor force for everyone over 65 – no economy in history has every had dependency ratios that high.

11 months ago Pending

Italy's labor force to over-65 ratio will drop to 0.88 by 2050 if no migration occurs, reaching unprecedented dependency ratios.

Pending

The ratio of the labor force to individuals over 65 will continue to decrease, impacting the fiscal sustainability of social contracts for healthcare and pensions.

This ratio has already reached levels where the fiscal sustainability of the social contract of financing healthcare and pensions has come under threat – but this ratio will continue to decline in the future.

11 months ago Pending

The ratio of the labor force to individuals over 65 will continue to decrease, impacting the fiscal sustainability of social contracts for healthcare and pensions.

Pending

Argentina is predicted to face its most difficult economic days in the future.

my last video concluded that the most difficult days lie ahead for Argentina

1 year ago Pending

Argentina is predicted to face its most difficult economic days in the future.

my last video concluded that the most difficult days lie ahead for Argentina

Pending

New SEC rules for cryptocurrencies are unlikely to make Trump's meme coins illegal.

It seems somewhat unlikely that they will come up with rules that make Trump's meme coins illegal.

1 year ago Pending

New SEC rules for cryptocurrencies are unlikely to make Trump's meme coins illegal.

It seems somewhat unlikely that they will come up with rules that make Trump's meme coins illegal.

Pending

If current presidential policies continue, American companies like Apple will incur damage that is not yet reflected in market prices.

Markets haven’t yet priced in three years and three quarters more of chaos – and investors aren't really pricing in the damage that could be done to great American companies like Apple - if the president continues on his current path.

10 months ago Pending

If current presidential policies continue, American companies like Apple will incur damage that is not yet reflected in market prices.

Pending

The 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' (restructuring US debt by forcing lower interest rates/extended maturities on investors) is highly unlikely to be implemented due to its destructive nature.

I don’t believe that such a deal is even remotely likely – and I think that even attempting to implement a policy like this would be so destructive and chaotic for the U.S. economy and financial markets that it could never happen.

10 months ago Pending

The 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' (restructuring US debt by forcing lower interest rates/extended maturities on investors) is highly unlikely to be implemented due to its destructive nature.

Pending

The Trump Administration is likely to repeal all Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax subsidies for renewable energy projects.

The stop-work order on a multi-billion-dollar international investment project like this implies that the Trump Administration is quite likely to repeal all of the IRA tax subsidies for renewable projects.

10 months ago Pending

The Trump Administration is likely to repeal all Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax subsidies for renewable energy projects.

Pending

Brazil will be a major beneficiary of the US-China trade war due to increased Chinese demand for agricultural products.

China – on the other hand - can replace its imports from the US more easily – as China mostly buys agricultural produce from the United States - so a big winner from this trade war will be Brazil who were a big winner in 2019 too - when the first round of tariffs was announced.

10 months ago Pending

Brazil will be a major beneficiary of the US-China trade war due to increased Chinese demand for agricultural products.

Pending

The Chinese Yuan will not replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency without China opening its capital account.

China – which is a huge economy - couldn’t replace the dollar in the global financial system with its currency - without opening its capital account and allowing the free movement of currency in and out of its economy – which it is unwilling to do.

10 months ago Pending

The Chinese Yuan will not replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency without China opening its capital account.

Pending

The US dollar will not lose its reserve currency status in the near future.

I don’t agree that the dollar will loose reserve currency status any time soon – simply because there is no reasonable alternative to the Dollar right now.

10 months ago Pending

The US dollar will not lose its reserve currency status in the near future.

I don’t agree that the dollar will loose reserve currency status any time soon – simply because there is no reasonable alternative to the Dollar right now.

Pending

Neom is not a failing project, evidenced by celebrity involvement like Alicia Keys.

Alicia Keys – she attended – come on - you know Alicia Keys – she had that big song about 25 years ago. She’s not going to get involved in a failing project.

11 months ago Pending

Neom is not a failing project, evidenced by celebrity involvement like Alicia Keys.

Alicia Keys – she attended – come on - you know Alicia Keys – she had that big song about 25 years ago. She’s not going to get involved in a failing project.

Pending

Aggressive US trade pressure is predicted to compel China to rebalance its economy by increasing workers' wages to boost domestic consumption, a challenging adjustment for both nations.

If the United States pushes hard – China would be forced to balance its economy and raise workers’ wages so that they can consume more of the goods being produced in the country. This would be a very difficult adjustment for both the United States and China.

1 year ago Pending

Aggressive US trade pressure is predicted to compel China to rebalance its economy by increasing workers' wages to boost domestic consumption, a challenging adjustment for both nations.

Pending

The US is predicted to reduce imports from China, leading to less access to cheap goods. China, in turn, will struggle to find an alternative trade partner for its substantial excess production, as no other economy can absorb it.

While the US will be able to reduce its imports from China – which will mean having less access to cheap goods – China won’t be able to find a substitute for the United States in trade – simply because no other economy (or group of economies) would be able to absorb the trillion dollars of excess production China is exporting per year.

1 year ago Pending

Pending

Once an amusement park is built in Neom, construction workers will flock to the region for jobs, seeking to use the park after work.

I figure – as soon as the amusement park is built – people will rush to get construction jobs in the region so that they can go to the amusement park after work.

11 months ago Pending

Once an amusement park is built in Neom, construction workers will flock to the region for jobs, seeking to use the park after work.

I figure – as soon as the amusement park is built – people will rush to get construction jobs in the region so that they can go to the amusement park after work.

Pending

The author predicts that utilizing Germany's excess auto manufacturing capacity for military production would preserve its manufacturing infrastructure and boost military equipment output.

Using this excess capacity for military production would help preserve Germany's manufacturing infrastructure while boosting the output of military equipment.

11 months ago Pending

The author predicts that utilizing Germany's excess auto manufacturing capacity for military production would preserve its manufacturing infrastructure and boost military equipment output.

Using this excess capacity for military production would help preserve Germany's manufacturing infrastructure while boosting the output of military equipment.

Pending

If Trump's trade policy continues with unpredictable threats and cancellations over the next four years, businesses will adopt a 'wait and see' approach, halting expansion plans, which will negatively impact the overall economy.

If the next four years are to be like the last few weeks where tariffs are threatened – ordered and then quickly cancelled – it creates an awful lot of uncertainty for businesses. If a company can’t decide where to build factories or who to sell to or buy from – they start to take a “wait and see” approach to business planning – this may be a wise business decision – but it would be very bad for the overall economy if every business were to halt expansion plans because of trade uncertainty.

1 year ago Pending

Pending

Ernst & Young estimate that raising German defense spending to 3% of GDP would create over 245,000 direct and indirect jobs.

Ernst and Young estimate that this would create over 245 thousand direct and indirect jobs in the country.

11 months ago Pending

Ernst & Young estimate that raising German defense spending to 3% of GDP would create over 245,000 direct and indirect jobs.

Ernst and Young estimate that this would create over 245 thousand direct and indirect jobs in the country.

Pending

After digging the foundation, the construction of the 106-mile-long building, flying cars, and artificial moon in Neom will be easy to complete.

Once you have dug the hole – all of the other stuff like the 106 mile long building – the flying cars and the artificial moon are easy. I think they are most of the way there.

11 months ago Pending

After digging the foundation, the construction of the 106-mile-long building, flying cars, and artificial moon in Neom will be easy to complete.

Once you have dug the hole – all of the other stuff like the 106 mile long building – the flying cars and the artificial moon are easy. I think they are most of the way there.

Pending

Tariffs against China are predicted to be treated as a persistent tax, rather than a negotiation tool, and could be increased over time.

the tariffs are just being applied as a tax – which could be cranked up over time.

1 year ago Pending

Tariffs against China are predicted to be treated as a persistent tax, rather than a negotiation tool, and could be increased over time.

the tariffs are just being applied as a tax – which could be cranked up over time.

Pending

The muted market response to Trump's tariff announcements is predicted to encourage him to make more extreme policy announcements in the future.

The problem with this lack of reaction – is that it possibly gives Trump the green light for more extreme announcements in the future.

1 year ago Pending

The muted market response to Trump's tariff announcements is predicted to encourage him to make more extreme policy announcements in the future.

The problem with this lack of reaction – is that it possibly gives Trump the green light for more extreme announcements in the future.

Pending

Analysts project Germany could target 3-3.5% of GDP for defense spending.

Analysts are projecting that Germany could potentially target 3 – 3.5% of GDP for defense spending.

11 months ago Pending

Analysts project Germany could target 3-3.5% of GDP for defense spending.

Analysts are projecting that Germany could potentially target 3 – 3.5% of GDP for defense spending.

Pending

Investors predict Europe will significantly increase defense spending, prioritizing domestic suppliers.

investors have concluded that Europe will be spending a lot more on defense – but that they will be spending it internally if possible.

11 months ago Pending

Investors predict Europe will significantly increase defense spending, prioritizing domestic suppliers.

investors have concluded that Europe will be spending a lot more on defense – but that they will be spending it internally if possible.

Pending

Trump's new tariffs will be less targeted and applied less gradually than in his first term, leading more Americans to feel the impact, specifically affecting iPhones and computers without exception.

This time around, more Americans will feel the impact. ... This time there's no exception for Apple, so iPhones and computers will be hit.

1 year ago Pending

Trump's new tariffs will be less targeted and applied less gradually than in his first term, leading more Americans to feel the impact, specifically affecting iPhones and computers without exception.

This time around, more Americans will feel the impact. ... This time there's no exception for Apple, so iPhones and computers will be hit.

Pending

Analysts are now projecting Germany's economic growth to be 1.8% to 2%.

Analysts who had been projecting flat economic growth for Germany are now projecting growth of 1.8 to two percent

11 months ago Pending

Analysts are now projecting Germany's economic growth to be 1.8% to 2%.

Analysts who had been projecting flat economic growth for Germany are now projecting growth of 1.8 to two percent

Pending

China's primary retaliation against US tariffs is predicted to involve pressuring major American companies, such as Apple and Tesla, that depend on China.

Chinas main form of retaliation will be to put pressure on big American businesses who rely on them like Apple or Tesla.

1 year ago Pending

China's primary retaliation against US tariffs is predicted to involve pressuring major American companies, such as Apple and Tesla, that depend on China.

Chinas main form of retaliation will be to put pressure on big American businesses who rely on them like Apple or Tesla.

Pending

The Federal Reserve is predicted to overlook one-off price increases caused by tariffs, unless these tariffs trigger an economic slowdown necessitating intervention.

Tariffs being imposed would push up the prices of goods – in the same way that a sales tax increase would – but it would be a one-off price hike that the Federal Reserve would likely ignore – except if it caused an economic slow down that they decided requires intervention.

1 year ago Pending

The Federal Reserve is predicted to overlook one-off price increases caused by tariffs, unless these tariffs trigger an economic slowdown necessitating intervention.

Pending

UBS predicts that if Germany's spending package passes, government spending could increase by a cumulative 20% of GDP over the next decade, and its debt-to-GDP ratio would still be in the mid-60% range by 2030.

According to UBS, if this package passes, government spending could increase by a cumulative 20% of GDP over the coming decade... their simulations indicate that Germanys debt-to-GDP ratio would still land in the mid 60% area by 2030

11 months ago Pending

Pending

Trump is predicted to expand tariffs to include the EU and other Asian economies, especially those serving as supply chain points or offshore production for China.

Trump ... is very likely to come back for more and is also likely to broaden his targets to include the EU and other Asian economies, in particular those that he views as supply chain stop-offs and offshore production platforms for China.

1 year ago Pending

Trump is predicted to expand tariffs to include the EU and other Asian economies, especially those serving as supply chain points or offshore production for China.

Pending

S&P Global predicts Germany's increased defense and infrastructure spending will positively impact its triple-A sovereign credit rating.

S&P Global said that the ramp-up in defense and infrastructure spending would in fact be a 'positive' for Germanys prized triple-A sovereign credit rating.

11 months ago Pending

S&P Global predicts Germany's increased defense and infrastructure spending will positively impact its triple-A sovereign credit rating.

S&P Global said that the ramp-up in defense and infrastructure spending would in fact be a 'positive' for Germanys prized triple-A sovereign credit rating.

Pending

Trump is predicted to impose further tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China.

It would be a mistake to assume that this is the last these countries have seen of his tariff hikes.

1 year ago Pending

Trump is predicted to impose further tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China.

It would be a mistake to assume that this is the last these countries have seen of his tariff hikes.

Pending

Economists predicted Germany would experience a third year of recession in 2025.

Many economists were warning of a potential third year of recession in 2025.

11 months ago Pending

Economists predicted Germany would experience a third year of recession in 2025.

Many economists were warning of a potential third year of recession in 2025.

Pending

Retaliatory tariffs against the US are expected.

retaliatory tariffs can be expected

11 months ago Pending

Retaliatory tariffs against the US are expected.

retaliatory tariffs can be expected

Pending

Analysts predict US tariffs on imported cars will benefit Tesla, making it the clear winner in the US market compared to competitors.

analysts still report that the tariffs will hit its competitors harder and that Tesla will be the clear winner in the US market.

11 months ago Pending

Analysts predict US tariffs on imported cars will benefit Tesla, making it the clear winner in the US market compared to competitors.

analysts still report that the tariffs will hit its competitors harder and that Tesla will be the clear winner in the US market.

Pending

Elon Musk predicted strong demand for Tesla vehicles and advised employees to retain their stock.

Elon Musk predicted strong demand and told employees to hang on to your stock.

11 months ago Pending

Elon Musk predicted strong demand for Tesla vehicles and advised employees to retain their stock.

Elon Musk predicted strong demand and told employees to hang on to your stock.

Pending

Automakers are predicted to struggle with future geopolitical tensions, changing regulations, trade rules, and a reversal of globalization.

Automakers may struggle to deal with changing environmental regulations, new trade rules, tariffs, restrictions on tech transfers and a general reversal of globalization.

1 year ago Pending

Automakers are predicted to struggle with future geopolitical tensions, changing regulations, trade rules, and a reversal of globalization.

Automakers may struggle to deal with changing environmental regulations, new trade rules, tariffs, restrictions on tech transfers and a general reversal of globalization.

Pending

The author predicts significant turmoil in the auto industry in the coming years, potentially leading to the disappearance of historic brands like Jaguar and Dodge if their EV transition fails.

It seems to me that we are likely to see significant turmoil in the auto industry in the coming years where historic brands like Jaguar and Dodge could disappear if they botch the transition to EVs by alienating their existing customers without convincing a new audience to buy their new products.

1 year ago Pending

The author predicts significant turmoil in the auto industry in the coming years, potentially leading to the disappearance of historic brands like Jaguar and Dodge if their EV transition fails.

Pending

Americans are predicted to experience significant price inflation in the near future due to new import tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption.

Americans can expect to see significant price inflation in the near future – unless all of these new rules are rolled back – as well may happen.

10 months ago Pending

Americans are predicted to experience significant price inflation in the near future due to new import tariffs and the end of the de minimis exemption.

Americans can expect to see significant price inflation in the near future – unless all of these new rules are rolled back – as well may happen.

Pending

The Wall Street Journal article suggests that if Germany retreats from net zero policies, the rest of the EU will likely follow.

If German voters do step back from net zero, the rest of the EU is unlikely be far behind.

1 year ago Pending

The Wall Street Journal article suggests that if Germany retreats from net zero policies, the rest of the EU will likely follow.

If German voters do step back from net zero, the rest of the EU is unlikely be far behind.

Pending

Packages from China to be subjected to a 120% tax or a $100 flat fee starting May 2, 2025, increasing to $200 per package in June 2025.

Starting on May 2nd, packages from China will be hit with a 120 percent tax on the value of the goods or a $100 flat fee, which will increase to $200 per package this June.

10 months ago Pending

Packages from China to be subjected to a 120% tax or a $100 flat fee starting May 2, 2025, increasing to $200 per package in June 2025.

Starting on May 2nd, packages from China will be hit with a 120 percent tax on the value of the goods or a $100 flat fee, which will increase to $200 per package this June.

Pending

A Wall Street Journal article argued that 2025 might be the year net zero policies effectively end due to voter dissatisfaction.

A recent Wall Street Journal article argues that 2025 may be the year that net zero dies as voters lose patience with the project and grow less shy about saying so.

1 year ago Pending

A Wall Street Journal article argued that 2025 might be the year net zero policies effectively end due to voter dissatisfaction.

A recent Wall Street Journal article argues that 2025 may be the year that net zero dies as voters lose patience with the project and grow less shy about saying so.

Pending

European governments are predicted to struggle with affording continued EV subsidies due to tighter budgets.

while European governments seem more committed, their budgets are a lot tighter and they may not be able to afford the subsidies.

1 year ago Pending

European governments are predicted to struggle with affording continued EV subsidies due to tighter budgets.

while European governments seem more committed, their budgets are a lot tighter and they may not be able to afford the subsidies.

Pending

Most auto analysts expect Electric Vehicles to eventually constitute the majority of the global automotive fleet.

According to most auto analysts, EVs are still expected to eventually make up most of the global automotive fleet – due to tightening environmental legislation around the world.

1 year ago Pending

Most auto analysts expect Electric Vehicles to eventually constitute the majority of the global automotive fleet.

According to most auto analysts, EVs are still expected to eventually make up most of the global automotive fleet – due to tightening environmental legislation around the world.

Pending

The British Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders predicted that 2025 could be worse for the UK auto industry due to unsustainable EV sales discounts.

The British Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, told the press that the discounts needed to boost EV sales to hit last year’s targets were unsustainable – so 2025 could be even worse for the industry.

1 year ago Pending

The British Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders predicted that 2025 could be worse for the UK auto industry due to unsustainable EV sales discounts.

Pending

Tesla's robotaxis, robots, solar roofs, battery business, and rocket-equipped sports cars were predicted to be launched/developed in 2025.

In recent years, Tesla investors have mostly ignored sales figures, focusing instead on the eventual development of robotaxis, robots, solar roofs, a battery business and rocket equipped sports cars – all of which are coming next year...

1 year ago Pending

Tesla's robotaxis, robots, solar roofs, battery business, and rocket-equipped sports cars were predicted to be launched/developed in 2025.

Pending

Reinsurance premiums are likely to increase globally, including California, due to the LA wildfires.

this will likely push up reinsurance premiums both in California and in the rest of the world

1 year ago Pending

Reinsurance premiums are likely to increase globally, including California, due to the LA wildfires.

this will likely push up reinsurance premiums both in California and in the rest of the world

Pending

Insurance prices in California and other disaster-prone areas are expected to rise in the coming years.

in the coming years Insurance prices can be expected to rise in California and in other places susceptible to large scale disasters like this

1 year ago Pending

Insurance prices in California and other disaster-prone areas are expected to rise in the coming years.

in the coming years Insurance prices can be expected to rise in California and in other places susceptible to large scale disasters like this

Pending

The Los Angeles wildfires are not expected to cause any insurance companies to go bankrupt.

this event is not expected to push any insurance companies into bankruptcy

1 year ago Pending

The Los Angeles wildfires are not expected to cause any insurance companies to go bankrupt.

this event is not expected to push any insurance companies into bankruptcy

Pending

Warren Buffett warned in 2024 that California utilities may become uninvestable due to lawsuit risks.

Warren Buffett warned in his 2024 letter to investors that California utilities may be uninvestable because of the risk of this type of lawsuit

1 year ago Pending

Warren Buffett warned in 2024 that California utilities may become uninvestable due to lawsuit risks.

Warren Buffett warned in his 2024 letter to investors that California utilities may be uninvestable because of the risk of this type of lawsuit

Pending

Edison International is unlikely to go bankrupt even if found liable for the Eaton fire, due to its participation in California's Wildfire fund.

even if Edison International is found liable for the eaten fire it still is unlikely to go bankrupt like pg& did because of its participation in California's 21 billion dollar Wildfire fund

1 year ago Pending

Edison International is unlikely to go bankrupt even if found liable for the Eaton fire, due to its participation in California's Wildfire fund.

even if Edison International is found liable for the eaten fire it still is unlikely to go bankrupt like pg& did because of its participation in California's 21 billion dollar Wildfire fund

Pending

People are likely to rebuild bigger and more luxurious homes in areas destroyed by the fires.

otherwise people will likely just build bigger and more luxurious homes where their old home used to be as that's what generally happened after other fires

1 year ago Pending

People are likely to rebuild bigger and more luxurious homes in areas destroyed by the fires.

otherwise people will likely just build bigger and more luxurious homes where their old home used to be as that's what generally happened after other fires

Pending

California rental prices are predicted to increase in the short term due to wildfire-related housing loss and increased demand.

loss of housing will only make that situation worse in the short term as people who lost their homes look to rent a place to live while they rebuild the high demand for rental properties will push prices up a lot of the houses

1 year ago Pending

California rental prices are predicted to increase in the short term due to wildfire-related housing loss and increased demand.

Pending

Goldman Sachs estimates the LA wildfires will reduce the January employment report by 15,000 to 25,000 positions.

Goldman estimates that the fires will knock between 15 and 25,000 positions off the labor Department's employment report for January

1 year ago Pending

Goldman Sachs estimates the LA wildfires will reduce the January employment report by 15,000 to 25,000 positions.

Goldman estimates that the fires will knock between 15 and 25,000 positions off the labor Department's employment report for January

Pending

The Los Angeles wildfires are predicted to be the most expensive in US history.

experts are predicting that they will be the most expensive wildfires in US history

1 year ago Pending

The Los Angeles wildfires are predicted to be the most expensive in US history.

experts are predicting that they will be the most expensive wildfires in US history

Pending

The trend of aging world leaders is expected to continue unless more countries adopt democracy or the rate of increase in life expectancy slows down.

We shouldn’t expect this to change until either more countries adopt democracy, or increases in life expectations slow down.

12 months ago Pending

The trend of aging world leaders is expected to continue unless more countries adopt democracy or the rate of increase in life expectancy slows down.

We shouldn’t expect this to change until either more countries adopt democracy, or increases in life expectations slow down.

Pending

Worst-case scenarios for Donald Trump's mass deportation plans, such as the deportation of millions of people, are unlikely due to anticipated legal challenges and political opposition over costs.

Trump is likely to face legal challenges in rounding up immigrants and pushback from politicians over the extreme costs of his deportation plans, and for that reason I think the worst case scenarios outlined in the various studies are unlikely.

1 year ago Pending

Worst-case scenarios for Donald Trump's mass deportation plans, such as the deportation of millions of people, are unlikely due to anticipated legal challenges and political opposition over costs.

Pending

Donald Trump is predicted to scale back economic policies if they negatively impact the stock market or broader economy.

It seems to me that Trump keeps his eye on the stock market as a measure of his performance and for that reason he might back down from certain ideas if they appear to be hurting the economy.

1 year ago Pending

Donald Trump is predicted to scale back economic policies if they negatively impact the stock market or broader economy.

It seems to me that Trump keeps his eye on the stock market as a measure of his performance and for that reason he might back down from certain ideas if they appear to be hurting the economy.

Pending

Prediction Statistics by Year

Year

Total

Correct

Wrong

Pending

Accuracy

Videos (2025)

Video Title

Predictions

Published

Status

Why The DOJ Ignored Epstein for 40 Years!

2 months ago • 3 • A

Why The DOJ Ignored Epstein for 40 Years!

2 months ago

Ready

How to Lose $19.5 Billion: The Ford EV Disaster!

2 months ago • 9 • A

How to Lose $19.5 Billion: The Ford EV Disaster!

2 months ago

Ready

Elon Musk Admits DOGE Was a Failure!

2 months ago • 4 • A

Elon Musk Admits DOGE Was a Failure!

2 months ago

Ready

The Infinite Money Glitch is Broken!

2 months ago • 3 • A

The Infinite Money Glitch is Broken!

2 months ago

Ready

AI and the Death of the Career Ladder

3 months ago • 17 • A

AI and the Death of the Career Ladder

3 months ago

Ready

Does OpenAI expect a Government Bailout?

3 months ago • 3 • A

Does OpenAI expect a Government Bailout?

3 months ago

Ready

Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Plan: What You MUST Know!

3 months ago • 15 • A

Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage Plan: What You MUST Know!

3 months ago

Ready

Elon Musk's Anti Woke Encyclopedia

3 months ago • 9 • A

Elon Musk's Anti Woke Encyclopedia

3 months ago

Ready

China’s Rare Earth Chokehold!

4 months ago • 15 • A

China’s Rare Earth Chokehold!

4 months ago

Ready

Is AI’s Circular Financing Inflating a Bubble?

4 months ago • 16 • A

Is AI’s Circular Financing Inflating a Bubble?

4 months ago

Ready

Private Equity’s Quiet Crisis!

4 months ago • 4 • A

Private Equity’s Quiet Crisis!

4 months ago

Ready

The Chainsaw Stalls: Can Milei Cut Through Argentina’s Currency Collapse?

4 months ago • 2 • A

The Chainsaw Stalls: Can Milei Cut Through Argentina’s Currency Collapse?

4 months ago

Ready

AAA Rated Junk: What Tricolor and First Brands Reveal About Credit Markets!

4 months ago • 3 • A

AAA Rated Junk: What Tricolor and First Brands Reveal About Credit Markets!

4 months ago

Ready

The End of Legal Immigration?

5 months ago • 18 • A

The End of Legal Immigration?

5 months ago

Ready

Are the Rich Really Leaving Britain?

5 months ago • 3 • A

Are the Rich Really Leaving Britain?

5 months ago

Ready

The Book That Wasn’t Supposed to Exist - Epstein's Birthday Book Released!

5 months ago • 3 • A

The Book That Wasn’t Supposed to Exist - Epstein's Birthday Book Released!

5 months ago

Ready

New Meme Stocks Just Dropped!

5 months ago • 0 • A

New Meme Stocks Just Dropped!

5 months ago

Ready

Is AI Slop Killing the Internet?

6 months ago • 7 • A

Is AI Slop Killing the Internet?

6 months ago

Ready

The Mortgage Divide: Why America’s Housing Market Is Splitting in Two!

6 months ago • 2 • A

The Mortgage Divide: Why America’s Housing Market Is Splitting in Two!

6 months ago

Ready

Trump’s $2B Chip Deal: Nvidia’s Big Payout Explained

6 months ago • 11 • A

Trump’s $2B Chip Deal: Nvidia’s Big Payout Explained

6 months ago

Ready

Sales Down, Pay Up: Inside Tesla’s Strange New Reality!

6 months ago • 0 • A

Sales Down, Pay Up: Inside Tesla’s Strange New Reality!

6 months ago

Ready

Is the Global Trading System Breaking Down?

6 months ago • 6 • A

Is the Global Trading System Breaking Down?

6 months ago

Ready

Epstein - Follow The Money!

7 months ago • 2 • A

Epstein - Follow The Money!

7 months ago

Ready

The Mirage of Megaprojects: Why the West Keeps Getting Infrastructure Wrong

7 months ago • 0 • A

The Mirage of Megaprojects: Why the West Keeps Getting Infrastructure Wrong

7 months ago

Ready

How Jane Street Made $4.3 Billion in India—Then Got Banned!

7 months ago • 1 • A

How Jane Street Made $4.3 Billion in India—Then Got Banned!

7 months ago

Ready

Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet: Why Companies Are Turning to Crypto as a Treasury Strategy

7 months ago • 0 • A

Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet: Why Companies Are Turning to Crypto as a Treasury Strategy

7 months ago

Ready

How Big Tech Is Quietly Taking Over AI (Without Mergers)

8 months ago • 6 • A

How Big Tech Is Quietly Taking Over AI (Without Mergers)

8 months ago

Ready

The Best & Worst Wall Street Films!

8 months ago • 1 • A

The Best & Worst Wall Street Films!

8 months ago

Ready

America’s Tax on Foreign Investors - Section 899

8 months ago • 36 • A

America’s Tax on Foreign Investors - Section 899

8 months ago

Ready

The Trump Musk Blowup!

8 months ago • 8 • A

The Trump Musk Blowup!

The Alarming Rise in Global Debt!

9 months ago • 25 • A

The Alarming Rise in Global Debt!

9 months ago

Ready

Trump’s Big Pharma Battle: Real Reform or Empty Promise?

9 months ago • 4 • A

Trump’s Big Pharma Battle: Real Reform or Empty Promise?

9 months ago

Ready

The Biggest Wealth Transfer In History is Happening Right Now!

9 months ago • 5 • A

The Biggest Wealth Transfer In History is Happening Right Now!

9 months ago

Ready

Why Is Russia's Economy Growing?

10 months ago • 9 • A

Why Is Russia's Economy Growing?

10 months ago

Ready

America's Shopping Addiction!

10 months ago • 2 • A

America's Shopping Addiction!

10 months ago

Ready

Is China Dumping the Dollar? - And is Ray Dalio Right about Reserve Currencies?

10 months ago • 6 • A

Is China Dumping the Dollar? - And is Ray Dalio Right about Reserve Currencies?

10 months ago

Ready

Panic In the Car Market - Americans Rush to Beat Tariffs!

10 months ago • 18 • A

Panic In the Car Market - Americans Rush to Beat Tariffs!

10 months ago

Ready

How Trump’s Tariffs Will Transform Global Trade?

11 months ago • 4 • A

How Trump’s Tariffs Will Transform Global Trade?

11 months ago

Ready

Is Elon Musk's Business Empire Collapsing?

11 months ago • 3 • A

Is Elon Musk's Business Empire Collapsing?

11 months ago

Ready

Why Are Birthrates Plummeting Worldwide?

11 months ago • 11 • A

Why Are Birthrates Plummeting Worldwide?

11 months ago

Ready

Saudi Arabia's Megaproject Disaster!

11 months ago • 3 • A

Saudi Arabia's Megaproject Disaster!

11 months ago

Ready

Germany's Historic Debt Deal!

11 months ago • 8 • A

Germany's Historic Debt Deal!

11 months ago

Ready

Why is The World Run by Old People?

12 months ago • 1 • A

Why is The World Run by Old People?

12 months ago

Ready

Argentina's Memecoin Disaster

1 year ago • 2 • A

Argentina's Memecoin Disaster

1 year ago

Ready

The Dumbest Megaprojects!

1 year ago • 2 • A

The Dumbest Megaprojects!

1 year ago

Ready

Trump’s Tariff Wars - What Happens Next?

1 year ago • 10 • A

Trump’s Tariff Wars - What Happens Next?

1 year ago

Ready

DeepSeek - How a Chinese AI Startup Shook Silicon Valley

1 year ago • 11 • A

DeepSeek - How a Chinese AI Startup Shook Silicon Valley

1 year ago

Ready

The South Sea Bubble - The First Financial Crash

1 year ago • 0 • A

The South Sea Bubble - The First Financial Crash

1 year ago

Ready

The Economic Toll of The Los Angeles Wildfires

1 year ago • 20 • A

The Economic Toll of The Los Angeles Wildfires

1 year ago

Ready

How Would Mass Deportations Affect the US Economy?

1 year ago • 2 • A

How Would Mass Deportations Affect the US Economy?

1 year ago

Ready

Is Electrification Killing the Auto Industry?

1 year ago • 8 • A

Is Electrification Killing the Auto Industry?

1 year ago

Ready

Patrick Boyle

Predictions (2025)

Prediction Statistics by Year

Videos (2025)

Like this author?