Published: 2025-03-11
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Trump's new tariffs are likely to spike inflation in the US.
"However it's not clear that Trump's new tariffs could avoid spiking inflation again not least because they are far more extensive this time around."
Pending
A 25% tariff on imports would severely disrupt the US economy and cause a broader economic slowdown.
"Americans Lifestyles depend on Goods imported from all over the world and to tax them at say 25% would severely disrupt the US economy any benefits to specific us Industries protected by tariffs would be dwarfed by the broader economic slowdown they would cause."
Pending
China will retaliate against Trump's second 10% tariff, leading to a significant escalation in the trade war.
"China has vowed retaliation for Trump's second 10% tariff on Chinese Imports but has yet to announce specific measures. China's foreign Ministry accused Trump of using fentanyl as an excuse to start a trade war and reminded Washington that there are no winners in trade Wars. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce added quote China will counter with all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights and interests now this is notably stronger language than was used in China's response to Trump's previous 10% tariff suggesting a significant escalation is on the way."
Pending
The EU will impose broad retaliatory tariffs and restrictions if Trump imposes a 25% tariff on EU imports.
"The EU naturally disagreed with Trump's characterization but made clear that it will indeed try to screw America with retaliatory tariffs if Trump imposes this 25% tariff the eu's agriculture commissioner Kristoff Hansen told Politico quote we have an anti-coercion instr and we will have to use it now this instrument is the eu's OWN trade bazooka designed after the first Trump Administration it provides for broad retaliation in response to trade discrimination including the use of quotas tariffs and restrictions on foreign investment."
Pending
US businesses will face a significant jump in import costs from Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China due to new tariffs.
"At a minimum it looks like a blanket tax of some size on imports from Canada Mexico and the EU will go ahead sooner or later in addition to a 20% increase in taxes on goods from China now larger businesses in the US are preparing for the worst by frontloading their Imports or in other words stockpiling foreign Goods that will soon become more expensive due to tariffs this will buy them some time but eventually they'll have to confront a significant jump in their import costs."
Pending
Small and medium-sized US businesses will be severely impacted by new import taxes as they cannot frontload imports like larger companies.
"Small and medium-sized businesses are less likely to have the capital on hand to stockpile Imports before the tariffs come into effect as such smaller businesses will be hit first by the new import taxes and if they have to compete with front loaders who are still able to sell at prear prices they're going to get wrecked very quickly."
Pending
Canada will implement an immediate and strong retaliatory response if Trump's tariffs are enforced.
"Canada's patience has also worn thin Trudeau has flatly told the US that Canada is not the source of its problems he has vowed quote an immediate and extremely strong response if Trump's tariffs are enforced."
Pending
Lower and middle-income US consumers will face a severe new price shock if import prices from the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China increase by 20% or more due to tariffs.
"If anyone is guaranteed to lose though its lower and middle inome consumers in the US inflation since the pandemic has already severely eroded their purchasing power if the prices of goods imported from the EU Canada Mexico and China increase by 20% or more a sudden new price shock will bite already struggling us consumers hard."
Pending
There will not be a major influx of US retail investor money into the crypto market in the foreseeable future due to increased cost of living from tariffs, leading to muted retail inflows. Institutional capital will increasingly lead crypto inflows, focusing on top 50 cryptos.
"If it turns out that everyone else is right and he is wrong then well we might not see any major influx of us retail investor money into the crypto market for the foreseeable future after all who in America is going to have money left over to buy shitcoins when a carton of eggs can cost $10 and that's not even tariff related new import taxes piling onto the cost of living aren't exactly what the doctor ordered then again if we can rule out a flood of American retail investors coming to pump our bags then this question of who will buy crypto becomes rather more simple inflows into crypto are increasingly going to be led by institutional Capital while retail inflows are likely to stay muted as such it might be wise to pay greater attention to what institutions are buying and I'll give you a hint it's probably nothing outside of the top 50 cryptos on coin market cap."
Pending