ilmscore | Stagflation Incoming? How Trump’s Tariffs Could Crash the Economy

Stagflation Incoming? How Trump’s Tariffs Could Crash the Economy

Published: 2025-04-16
Status: Available | Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 12
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 12
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The average US tariff rate, after a pause, is projected to be 24%, down from a pre-pause projection of 27%, which is still the highest in over a century.
"before Trump's pause the average US tariff rate was set to reach 27% the highest in more than a century and after the pause it has fallen to drum roll please 24%"
US Tariffs Impact
Pending
The ongoing US-China tariffs are significantly offsetting any positive effects from pauses on other tariffs.
"the spiraling US China tariffs have largely negated the relief implied by the pause on the other tariffs"
US-China Tariffs
Pending
Critics question the feasibility, timeline, and job creation potential of reshoring due to advancements in robotics and AI, suggesting US manufacturing is efficient and requires fewer human workers.
"critics of reshoring cast doubt on its feasibility time horizon and potential for massive job creation amid rapid advances in robotics and AI they point out that US manufacturing is still alive and well it just doesn't need so many humans nowadays"
Reshoring Feasibility
Pending
The share of US real GDP attributed to manufacturing has remained stable since the 1940s, while the nominal GDP share has declined.
"manufacturing share of US real GDP has remained fairly constant since the 1940s it is only the share of nominal GDP that has declined"
US Manufacturing GDP Share
Pending
Some economists predict that the current tariffs imposed by Trump are likely to lead to stagflation.
"some economists are now saying that Trump's tariffs are likely to cause stagflation"
Stagflation Risk
Pending
In 1975, a combination of 12.3% inflation and 9% unemployment resulted in a 'misery index' of 21% for the US economy.
"high inflation plus unemployment made the US economy 21% miserable"
Stagflation
Pending
A University of Michigan survey in April 2025 showed 12-month consumer inflation expectations at 6.7%, the highest level since 1981.
"an April 2025 survey by the University of Michigan has recorded 12-month consumer inflation expectations at 6.7% the highest reading since 1981"
US Inflation Expectations
Pending
Moody's Analytics chief economist forecasts US unemployment to reach 7.5% if tariffs remain in place beyond 2026.
"the chief economist at Moody's Analytics projects US unemployment to reach 7.5% if the tariffs persist beyond 2026"
US Unemployment Projection
Pending
JP Morgan estimates that tariffs could decrease US GDP growth to almost zero in the current year.
"JP Morgan estimates tariffs could reduce the US GDP growth to nearly zero this year"
US GDP Growth Projection
Pending
Larry Fink expresses significant concern, believing a recession is imminent or has already begun.
"Larry Fin says he is quote petrified and that he thinks a recession is imminent if not already underway"
Recession Imminence
Pending
Tariffs are expected to cause some level of stagflation, but a prolonged period like the 1970s seems unlikely.
"tariffs all but guarantee some amount of stagflation but that doesn't mean a decade of disaster like the 70s which looks unlikely"
Stagflation Likelihood
Pending
If Trump lifts the tariffs, the economic situation is expected to improve immediately.
"if Trump caves and tariffs are lifted the situation is likely to improve immediately"
Tariff Removal Impact
Pending