Tariffs May Trigger Recession – Here's What the Data Shows
Published: 2025-05-04
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2025-05-04
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
US economy to enter a recession by summer 2025.
"Torston expects the US economy to enter a recession by the summer"
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By the end of May 2025, there will be 'empty shelves' due to a drop in consumption causing retailers to stop stocking certain products.
"by the end of May there will be quote empty shelves"
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Activity at US ports will grind to a halt by early to mid-May 2025.
"the activity at US ports will grind to a halt by early to mid-May"
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Goods deflation in the short term due to increased inventories and reduced consumption.
"the affforementioned increase in inventories suggests we could actually see goods deflation in the short term"
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Goods inflation to drop in the short term, and services inflation to also fall due to reduced consumption.
"the effect of this increase in supply and decrease in demand could be a drop in goods inflation in the short term at the same time services inflation could also fall because of the reduction in consumption"
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Sharp decline in overall inflation in the coming months.
"you have a recipe for a sharp decline in inflation in the coming months"
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Sharp decline in economic growth to accompany falling inflation.
"this will be accompanied by a sharp decline in economic growth"
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US economy to face a recession, not stagflation.
"Torston is foreshadowing recession and not stagflation"
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If tariffs on China are reduced, most adverse economic effects will likely disappear.
"if the tariffs on China are reduced then most of the bad stuff is likely to go away"
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If tariffs remain at current levels, there's a 90% chance of recession starting by summer 2025.
"if they stay at their current levels then there is a 90% chance of recession starting by the summer"
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Worst-case inflation scenario: PCE index to rise by 1% over the next year (from current 2% to 3%).
"the worst case scenario on the inflation side would be a personal consumption expenditures index or PCE to rise by 1% over the next year"
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Retailers will absorb tariff-related costs as additional expenses due to weakening economy and falling consumption.
"retailers will have to eat the costs as additional expenses"
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Further weakening from tariff concerns will tip the US economy into a recession.
"any further weakening due to tariff concerns could in fact be the thing that tips the US economy into a recession and it looks like that's exactly what's going on"
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US economy and markets to experience 'chop and grind' until tariffs are finalized.
"The consequence for the economy could therefore be more chop and grind just like what we've seen in the markets in recent weeks both could continue to chop and grind until tariffs are finalized"
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Prices of most goods could fall as retailers absorb tariff costs to maintain market share.
"the prices of most goods could actually fall as retailers swallow any tariff related costs to try and gain market share or to keep market share"
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Travel costs to become significantly cheaper.
"traveling is going to get a lot cheaper too"
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Continued decline in oil prices due to OPEC's upcoming production increase.
"sprinkle in continued decline in oil prices due to OPEC's upcoming production increase"
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Overall inflation picture to be less severe than expected.
"all of a sudden the inflation picture doesn't look nearly as bad as expected"
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Supply chain issues and empty shelves could occur if trade threats escalate into a full-blown trade war.
"we could in fact see supply chain issues and empty shells if the trade threats escalate into a fullblown trade war"
Pending