Published: 2025-09-21
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
If the Reform Party's economic policies fail after winning power, they will escalate their immigration policies by leaving international conventions, stopping all legal migration, and potentially deporting recent migrants (including British citizens or permanent residents).
"The obvious political move is to say this is because we are not going far enough on immigration... So at the moment the emphasis is on illegal immigration or asylum seekers... Okay, we need to get rid of legal migration... What do you do next? Well, the obvious place to go next is to say, well, that wasn't enough because we've already had too much migration, right? So, you go back and you look at people who have recently migrated in the last 5 years, in the last 10 years, and you say, "Okay, we need to get rid of recent migrants.""
Pending
The Green Party is predicted to win 30 to 40 seats in the next UK general election, a significant increase from their historical performance.
"I think the Greens will also get a decent chunk for the first time ever... The new leader Zach Palansky talks about 30 to 40 seats, which would be enormous for for the Greens who have never had more than four seats, which is what they won last election. It's optimistic, but I think it's possible"
Pending
By the 2029 UK general election, living standards and the overall economic situation in the UK are predicted to have further deteriorated.
"By the time we get to the next election, and the next election here in this country is not due until 2029. By the time we get to the next election, living standards will be even worse than they are now. The economic situation will be worse."
Pending
The Reform Party's chances of winning the next UK general election are predicted to be significantly higher than 50%.
"I think reform's chances of winning the next election are significantly higher than the betting market thinks of 50%."
Pending
The Labour government is expected to significantly raise taxes in Autumn 2025.
"They're probably going to significantly raise taxes in the autumn."
Pending
The Labour Party is predicted to perform very poorly in the May 2026 local elections, including those in London.
"Then in May we will have local elections uh including here in London and I think they will do really really badly."
Pending
Keir Starmer is predicted to be replaced as Labour leader in 2026.
"I'm pretty confident Kistan will go Kistan will be replaced and there will be a new leader."
Pending
Robert Jenrick is predicted to become the new leader of the Conservative Party.
"It looks like it will be probably Robert Genrich."
Pending
There is a significant chance that the Conservative Party will cease to exist as a major political party.
"There's a good chance that they will disappear as a party."
Pending
The Reform Party is predicted to win the next UK general election.
"I do think reform will win the next election."
Pending
The Reform Party is predicted to win an overall majority in the next UK general election with the lowest vote share historically for such an outcome.
"What will probably happen in the next election is that reform will win an overall majority with the smallest ever number of votes that any party has ever won an overall majority."
Pending
If the Reform Party comes to power, their economic policies (including those related to immigration) are predicted to fail to fix the economy, leading them to further escalate their anti-immigration stance.
"when they come in their economic policies aren't working... I guarantee you I'll bet you any money that will not fix the economy... The obvious political move is to say this is because we are not going far enough on immigration."
Pending