Published: 2025-11-26
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Markets, including crypto, are not expected to immediately rise or experience Quantitative Easing (QE) right after Quantitative Tightening (QT) stops, unless an unforeseen event occurs.
"To expect QE to be turned on immediately, to expect this to turn around immediately once QT stops is, I think, a fool's errand. I don't particularly think this is an on-off switch that just gets turned on because QT stops. There is very likely a period unless something goes wrong... So just having QT stop. Yes, it's a tick in the box of there should be more liquidity but it's not a suddenly markets are going to go up. I do not think that's going to happen."
Pending
If Bitcoin ends 2025 with a negative return ('red' year), it is highly probable that 2026 will not be a 'red' year.
"If this year is red, it arguably massively increases the probabilities that next year is not red."
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted not to exceed $100,000, and certainly not $108,000, in the short term.
"I don't really particularly think that in the short term we break over $100K. I definitely don't think we break over $108,000."
Pending
The next Federal Reserve Chair will likely prioritize lowering interest rates and boosting economic output over controlling inflation, leading to higher inflation which will be beneficial for assets, including cryptocurrencies.
"The new Fed chair is very likely going to place a bit less emphasis on inflation, a bit more emphasis on bringing rates down, and a bit more emphasis on driving economic output. This will probably come at the cost of increased inflation is the reality. What does increased inflation mean? Probably it's good for everyone's bags."
Pending
Within approximately 6 months (around May 2026), there is an 82% market-implied probability that the Federal Funds Rate will be low enough to ease financial conditions, likely leading to an increase in crypto search interest due to more available short-term capital.
"in about 6 months there's like a 3/4 chance that suddenly financial conditions will be okay for expansion... We'll probably see crypto search terms trend upwards again because suddenly people have a bit more money in the short term."
Pending
Donald Trump is expected to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair around June 2026, with Kevin Hassett identified as a highly probable successor.
"We know Trump is probably going to replace Powell or he's definitely going to replace Powell. He's been sharing memes of him firing Powell all year. This isn't happening until, you know, June, give or take. There's a very good chance it's going to be Kevin Hassett."
Pending
If new legislation regarding the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is passed, liquidity provision will likely shift from the Federal Reserve to commercial banks, leading to increased liquidity in the broader markets in the mid to long-term future.
"if it if it comes through is that look it looks like they're gearing up for large changes which is the magic bullet and allows liquidity provision to move from the Fed to banks at large which means that more liquidity is likely to come into markets because basically banks want to push out liquidity because it's in their best interest because that's how they make money. If this comes through, it's in the final rulings right now. This is another sort of like, okay, very likely at some point in the near in the, you know, mid to midterm future, there's going to be less liquidity constraints for the entire market at large."
Pending
The crypto market is predicted to remain under pressure for the next 3 to 6 months (approximately until June 2026).
"We can be under pressure for the next 3 to 6 months easily... this thing probably doesn't really change until June."
Pending
Within the next 3 to 9 months (from November 2025), liquidity conditions are predicted to reverse completely, leading to a strong market, potentially aligning with the market performance expected since 2023.
"over the next three, six, nine months, liquidity conditions are completely switched around and we're we're potentially even having the market that we should have thought we've had from, you know, 2023 onwards."
Pending
The market and Bitcoin will remain under downward pressure for the next 3 to 6 months (until around May-June 2026). Bitcoin is not expected to break above $100K, or $108K, in the short term.
"We can be under pressure for the next 3 to 6 months easily... this thing probably doesn't really change until June... I think we stay pressure to the downside. We're in a firm downtrend. I don't really particularly think that in the short term we break over $100K. I definitely don't think we break over $108,000... I think we stay pressure to the downside for a little bit longer."
Pending
Bitcoin reaching $33,000 is considered unlikely.
"33K would be brutal. I think that's pretty unlikely."
Pending
Donald Trump will replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell by June (around May-June 2026). Kevin Hassett is highly likely to be the new Fed chair, who will prioritize rate cuts and economic output over inflation control, leading to increased inflation, which will generally benefit asset prices.
"The new Fed chair is very likely going to place a bit less emphasis on inflation, a bit more emphasis on bringing rates down, and a bit more emphasis on driving economic output. This will probably come at the cost of increased inflation is the reality. What does increased inflation mean? Probably it's good for everyone's bags... We know Trump is probably going to replace Powell or he's definitely going to replace Powell. He's been sharing memes of him firing Powell all year. This isn't happening until, you know, June, give or take. There's a very good chance it's going to be Kevin Hassett... I think the new Fed chair is going to be more on the rate cut side of things. not worrying anywhere near as much about inflation and worrying much more about driving economic output at the cost probably of inflation."
Pending
New legislation regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio is likely to pass, enabling banks to lend more collateral, which will result in fewer liquidity constraints for the broader market in the mid to long term.
"There's a new kind of like a piece of legislation that's probably going to come through that means that basically banks can give out more collateral and actually the Fed will be less required to push money into the economy... If this comes through... very likely at some point in the near in the, you know, mid to midterm future, there's going to be less liquidity constraints for the entire market at large."
Pending
Within the next 3 to 9 months (until around Feb-Aug 2026), liquidity conditions will drastically improve, potentially leading to the strong market rally that was anticipated from 2023 onwards.
"over the next three, six, nine months, liquidity conditions are completely switched around and we're we're potentially even having the market that we should have thought we've had from, you know, 2023 onwards."
Pending