If a recession occurs after the Fed begins cutting rates (starting August 2024), the stock market is predicted to be down ~5% from its peak by August 2025 but to have recovered all losses by August 2026, based on historical averages.
"if a recession happens then it's a different story so you can see that uh if there's a recession then you get this um orange line over here where the market you know 12 months later could be down about well actually not that bad you know 12 months later it's down like maybe 5% from from the top went all the way down you know uh 15% then 12 months later down 5% but 24 months later it's made it all back"