Published: 2025-12-19
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin price has a 60% chance of sweeping prior lows (going slightly lower) before finding a bottom.
"My guess is that it's a slightly lower low where it sweeps these prior lows. I'm not going to put a lot of weight into it. I would say maybe 60% chance we sweep the low, 40% chance we find a low slightly above it. Okay, but I I I got to think it's it's more likely to be a sweep of the low where we go slightly below it."
Pending
Bitcoin price action should be faded (bet against current trend) for the remainder of the week of video publication (Dec 19-26, 2025) and partially into the following week.
"for me right now, I think in the short term, I think it makes sense to fade price action. I would say for at least the rest of this week and and partially into next week as well."
Pending
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates soon, and the subsequent Bitcoin price low is predicted to occur a week or more after the rate hike, not immediately.
"The Bank of Japan is likely going to raise rates really soon. And a lot of people think that when they raise rates, it immediately leads to a drop. But usually the actual low after the Bank of Japan raises rates could be like a week later or longer."
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to experience a rapid temporary price drop ('wick down') below its prior low within a few weeks from the video's publication date (late 2025/early 2026).
"next week we might have a wick down where we potentially go below the prior low within the next few weeks."
Pending
Bitcoin's short-term base case involves a sweep of a prior low followed by a counter-trend rally.
"I think in the short term that's going to be my base case is that you get like kind of a sweep of the low and then a counter trend rally on the other side of that."
Pending
After a sweep of the low and a rally in early 2026, Bitcoin is expected to form a macro lower high, followed by a lower low in summer 2026.
"if there is a sweep of the low and then if there's a rally back up in early 2026 to the bull market sport band... it could just be a lower high into a lower low in the summer."
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to drop to $60,000-$70,000, retesting the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which will lead to capitulation from 'super cycle' proponents, potentially marking the market bottom.
"Then back down 60 to 70K, checks in with a 200E moving average. The four-year cycle people or the the the super cycle guys are like, "All right, we were wrong." they end up finally capitulating and it ends up being somewhere near the bottom"
Pending
A durable breakout for Bitcoin is unlikely until significant rate cuts and more money printing occur, which is contingent on the S&P 500 dropping.
"I don't think you're going to see Bitcoin get a durable breakout until after there's a lot more rate cuts and and the idea of more money printing which that can't really happen until the S&P 500 starts to drop"
Pending
There is a 30% chance that Bitcoin could sweep a low and rally to new all-time highs, following a pattern seen in stocks like Nvidia, which would signal a long-term top for years.
"I would argue like maybe like maybe you have like a a 30% chance of something like that happening. But if it does happen, it would probably not be good long term, right?"
Pending
The Bitcoin bear market low is predicted to occur in October 2026, aligning with historical patterns of approximately one-year bear market durations.
"October 2026. October 2026 has a lot of reasons for why it could in fact be the low. The last few bare markets, they've lasted about one year... So why can't this one just be October to October?"
Pending
Based on MicroStrategy's previous 98-week bear market duration, the Bitcoin bear market low is predicted to occur in October 2026.
"If you take Micro Strategies top 98 weeks out, that puts you coincidentally in October of 2026."
Pending
During the predicted counter-trend rally (early 2026), most altcoins are not expected to reach new all-time highs, although some may.
"some altcoins went to new all-time highs, and some could on a counter trend rally back up, but most did not go to a new all-time high."
Pending