SMCI Stock Analysis and Why I'm Still Buying
Published: 2025-03-03
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2025-03-03
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The author expects more insider stock sales for SMCI within the next month, but views them as non-concerning.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see more sales coming through over the next month but wouldn't be worried about it here."
Pending
The author predicts the Department of Justice investigation into SMCI will not find material issues, and any penalty will be a 'non-event' that removes uncertainty, helping the stock price rise.
"I doubt that doj is going to find anything material that the company's internal investigation and the new auditor missed... news on the investigation is a risk but any penalty or finding is likely to be a non-event that's going to clear up that last remaining uncertainty to help the send the shares higher."
Pending
The author predicts SMCI's share price to be in the range of $47 to $77, based on a 1.2x to 2x price-to-sales multiple on $24 billion in sales for 2025.
"Applying these multiples to sales forecast for $24 billion this year gives us a range of between $29.5 billion market cap that's a $47 share price on the 1.2 times valuation to a $48 billion market cap a $77 share price on the two times valuation multiple."
Pending
The author predicts SoundHound AI (SOUN) will double its revenue growth every year, driven by new partnerships and opportunities in voice AI for cars and drive-through systems.
"This company is still my one of my favorite long-term growth stocks... helping to double Revenue growth every year."
Pending
The author predicts Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock will head higher, believing it to be a patient, undervalued stock without an AI bubble built into its price.
"This is a patient stock... there's none of that AI bubble built into this stock like many of the others that we see and it will head higher."
Pending
The author predicts Costco could beat its 7% sales growth expectations if its stable 6% year-over-year traffic growth continues.
"But if it continues could help the company beat its 7% sales growth expectations."
Pending
The author predicts Broadcom management will almost certainly beat market expectations for sales growth and profit per share in their upcoming earnings report.
"The management will almost surely beat these expectations."
Pending
The author predicts the S&P 500 index will retrace to below 5840, which would constitute at least a 5% correction.
"While I think stocks are likely to retrace to below 5840 on the S&P 500 for at least a 5% correction."
Pending
The author predicts that if the market anticipates weaker economic growth, interest rates will fall, which will boost financial stocks (especially insurers) and real estate stocks.
"Interest rates will continue to come down if the market senses weaker economic growth on the horizon and that's going to continue to boost stocks like Financial especially the insurers along with those in real estate."
Pending
The author predicts that the Deep Seek news, regarding fewer chips needed for AI training, will not be sufficient to cause a market crash.
"There are two reasons I don't think the Deep seek news is enough to crash this Market thesis though."
Pending
The author expects a weakening jobs picture over the next few months, which will weigh on stocks. However, due to renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts, this is predicted not to disrupt the bull market by more than a 5-10% correction.
"I expect we will start seeing that weakening jobs picture take shape over the next few months which will weigh on stocks but with renewed hopes for Fed rate Cuts shouldn't disrupt the bull market more than a 5 or 10% correction."
Pending
The Department of Justice investigation into Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will likely not find anything material, and any penalty or finding will be a non-event that clears uncertainty and helps shares rise.
"I doubt that doj is going to find anything material that the company's internal investigation and the new auditor missed... news on the investigation is a risk but any penalty or finding is likely to be a non-event that's going to clear up that last remaining uncertainty to help the send the shares higher"
Pending
The author's price target for Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is $47-$77 per share, based on an estimated $24 billion in sales for 2025 and historical valuation multiples (1.2x to 2x sales). This is considered a conservative estimate given the market's $33 billion sales forecast for 2026.
"Applying these multiples to sales forecast for $24 billion this year gives us a range of between $29.5 billion market cap that's a $47 share price on the 1.2 times valuation to a $48 billion market cap a $77 share price on the two times valuation multiple and I think this is still a conservative estimate if you look at the price to sales valuations here the stock has traded at in the last year and the markets forecast for that $33 billion in sales next year"
Pending
SoundHound AI (SOUN) is expected to double its revenue growth every year, remaining a favorite long-term growth stock.
"this company is still my one of my favorite long-term growth stocks... helping to double Revenue growth every year"
Pending
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock is predicted to head higher, as it is considered a patient stock without an 'AI bubble' built into its valuation, unlike many other tech stocks.
"this is a patient stock and something that we've seen before in stocks like Sofi Technologies and even SM smci there there's none of that AI bubble built into this stock like many of the others that we see and it will head higher"
Pending
Costco (COST) may report a surprise upside in earnings on Thursday (March 6, 2025) and could beat its 7% sales growth expectations, contrasting with other big box retailers.
"Costco Wholesale tier coost reports earnings on Thursday... it might might also be a surprise upside from what we've seen in those other big box retailers... but if it continues could help the company beat its 7% sales growth expectations"
Pending
Broadcom (AVGO) management is almost certain to beat market expectations for 22% sales growth to $14.6 billion and a 37% jump in profits to $151 per share when reporting earnings on Thursday (March 6, 2025).
"the management will almost surely beat these expectations"
Pending
The S&P 500 and 'pop stocks' could experience further selling due to current high valuations, but there is no apparent catalyst for a full-blown bear market crash or an AI bubble pop.
"the market and especially these pop stocks still aren't cheap yet trading for 26 times on a price to earnings basis for the S&P 500 that's about an 18% more than the long-term average and could see further selling and the good news though there also doesn't appear to be a catalyst for a full-blown bare market crash or a pop in that AI bubble"
Pending
The S&P 500 is likely to retrace below 5840, experiencing at least a 5% correction.
"While I think stocks are likely to retrace to below 5840 on the S&P 500 for at least a 5% correction it's still not cheap but less expensive"
Pending
If the market anticipates weaker economic growth, interest rates will continue to fall, which will boost financial stocks (especially insurers) and real estate stocks.
"interest rates will continue to come down if the market senses weaker economic growth on the horizon and that's going to continue to boost stocks like Financial especially the insurers along with those in real estate"
Pending
President Trump is expected to implement postponed tariffs on Mexico and Canada this week (March 3-9, 2025), with more tariffs following throughout the month.
"president Trump is largely backtracked on tariffs for now but last week promised the postponed Mexico and Canada tariffs will hit this week followed by more throughout the month"
Pending
The US jobs picture is expected to weaken over the next few months, which will weigh on stocks. However, renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts should limit the disruption to the bull market to no more than a 5-10% correction.
"I expect we will start seeing that weakening jobs picture take shape over the next few months which will weigh on stocks but with renewed hopes for Fed rate Cuts shouldn't disrupt the bull market more than a 5 or 10% correction"
Pending
More insider sales of SMCI shares are expected in the month following the video's publication (March 2025).
"I wouldn't be surprised to see more sales coming through over the next month but wouldn't be worried about it here"
Pending
The Department of Justice investigation into SMCI is unlikely to find anything material that was missed by previous internal investigations or auditors.
"I doubt that doj is going to find anything material that the company's internal investigation and the new auditor missed"
Pending
Any penalty or finding from the DOJ investigation will likely be insignificant and remove uncertainty, leading to higher SMCI share prices.
"any penalty or finding is likely to be a non-event that's going to clear up that last remaining uncertainty to help the send the shares higher"
Pending
SMCI is expected to meet market expectations for $24 billion in revenue in 2025 and $33 billion in 2026.
"you should be able to at least meet these expectations"
Pending
SMCI's price-to-sales valuation is not expected to return to the 6x peak seen in March 2024.
"I don't think we get back to the six times price to sales valuation we saw at the peak last March"
Pending
SoundHound AI's call-to-order system is predicted to help double its revenue growth annually.
"helping to double Revenue growth every year"
Pending
Costco's upcoming earnings report on March 6, 2025, might show a surprise upside compared to other big box retailers.
"it might might also be a surprise upside from what we've seen in those other big box retailers"
Pending
The S&P 500 is likely to retrace below 5840, experiencing at least a 5% correction.
"I think stocks are likely to retrace to below 5840 on the S&P 500 for at least a 5% correction"
Pending
If the market anticipates weaker economic growth, interest rates will continue to decrease, which will boost financial stocks (especially insurers) and real estate stocks.
"interest rates will continue to come down if the market senses weaker economic growth on the horizon and that's going to continue to boost stocks like Financial especially the insurers along with those in real estate"
Pending
There is no apparent catalyst that would cause the current market's 'AI bubble' to pop.
"we don't see the kind of catalyst that would pop this Market"
Pending
The jobs market is expected to weaken over the next few months, weighing on stocks, but renewed hopes for Fed rate cuts should limit the bull market disruption to a 5-10% correction.
"I expect we will start seeing that weakening jobs picture take shape over the next few months which will weigh on stocks but with renewed hopes for Fed rate Cuts shouldn't disrupt the bull market more than a 5 or 10% correction"
Pending