ilmscore | Bitcoin Falls Below the 50 Week Moving Average

Bitcoin Falls Below the 50 Week Moving Average

Published: 2025-11-17
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
As of November 2025, there is a 60-70% probability that the Bitcoin market cycle top has already occurred.
"I would say there's probably a 60 to 70% chance that the top is already in."
BTC
Pending
If the Bitcoin market cycle top has already occurred, Bitcoin is expected to rally back up to its 200-day moving average at some point.
"If the top is in, if the top is in, then you would expect at some point a rally back up to the 200 day moving average, right?"
BTC
Pending
Bitcoin's price is predicted to experience an overall down year in 2026, even with potential rallies in the early months.
"I think that next year will be a down year, right? Like I I think it it will be down even if the very first part of it starts off like if it goes down a little and then goes up for a couple of months."
BTC
Pending
If Bitcoin closes the week of November 17, 2025, back above its 50-week moving average, the probability of the cycle top being in would revert to 50/50.
"if Bitcoin gets back above the 50week moving average this week, then I would be forced to then say, okay, maybe we're back to 50/50"
BTC
Pending
If Bitcoin rallies to $103,000 and achieves a weekly close above it, the recent weekly close below the 50-week moving average might be considered a fake out.
"if Bitcoin were to rally back up to 103K and get a weekly close back above it, maybe it is just a fake out."
BTC
Pending
If Bitcoin has a second consecutive weekly close below its 50-week moving average, the probability of the cycle top already being in will significantly increase, and any subsequent rallies are likely to result in a lower high.
"If you get a second close below [the 50-week moving average], the odds go up. considerably that the top is already in. Doesn't mean you can't have a rally. It just means it would likely yield a lower high."
BTC
Pending
If the Bitcoin cycle is not over and it's to reach a new all-time high, a significant rally should occur within one to two days from November 17, 2025.
"If the cycle is not over and somehow miraculously Bitcoin is able to go to a new all-time high, you would expect a rally within the next day or two"
BTC
Pending
If Bitcoin is entering a bear market, its 200-week exponential moving average will be the primary focus for the next few months, potentially aligning with Bitcoin retesting a specific trend line by mid-2026.
"If this is... a bear market, ...that 200E moving average is going to be the focus for the next few months. ...It would also maybe correspond to Bitcoin kind of back testing that trend line sometime out in like mid 2026."
BTC
Pending