Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

"I think it's more prudent just to say, "All right, the cycle likely does end for Bitcoin in this quarter.""

"for now I'm still leaning towards next year being a bare market year just like all the prior midterm years where the market dropped in 2014 and in 2018 and of course in 2022. So I definitely subscribe to the view of if it's not broke don't fix it. Therefore, I would assume that next year will in fact be a bare market for Bitcoin"

"the top would then likely occur sometime in the current quarter."

"Bitcoin dominance is about to go up a lot more. I mean 60% is nothing compared to where it likely could be in just a few weeks. ... over the next one to two weeks dominance should go up a lot and it should go well above 60%."

"if we're going to get it, it's going to happen in the next two months. Because if it doesn't happen in the next two months, then it's not going to happen this cycle is my opinion."

"the PI cycle top because it did a good job last cycle likely won't signal this cycle even if there is a parabolic rally. One of the reasons for that is if you divide the moving averages, you can see that every cycle we've seen diminishing peaks and the next peak would be below one. If you extrapolate, which any good engineer knows not to do, but if you were to extrapolate, it would suggest the next peak will not go above one, meaning the moving averages will not cross, meaning the PI cycle top will not trigger if you use it in the conventional sense."

"if you do get a rally from here, it has to be Bitcoin le, right? Like Bitcoin would have to lead it. ... if there is a parabolic rally into the end of the year, Bitcoin's got to lead the way."

"if price action stays suppressed, we're likely going to see a death cross. ... there's a good chance we'll have a death cross soon. And perhaps, like it always has, it'll correspond to a local low. ... The 50-day SMA, the 200 day SMA, they're probably going to cross in the next few weeks. So watch for that. That would likely correspond to a local low in the market when it happens."

"If the top is in the, you know, the the 5 to 10% drop that it would take to kind of confirm that the top is in weekly closes below 100K would be a lot less painful than the 30 to 50% drops you would likely see altcoins experience if Bitcoin were to do that."

"we should see a final rotation where that liquidity from the altcoin market just rushes back into Bitcoin. And I think that is going to happen and I think it has been happening for several weeks now."

"altcoins won't start moving in any durable fashion until after Bitcoin takes out the prior all-time high."

"We know that historically the cycles end in the fourth quarter of the post having year...I think it's more prudent just to say, 'All right, the cycle likely does end for Bitcoin in this quarter.'"

"for now I'm still leaning towards next year being a bare market year just like all the prior midterm years where the market dropped in 2014 and in 2018 and of course in 2022. So I definitely subscribe to the view of if it's not broke don't fix it. Therefore, I would assume that next year will in fact be a bare market for Bitcoin and the top would then likely occur sometime in the current quarter."

"I'm saying right now dominance is going to go up a lot over the next week and a half is my guess. Maybe two weeks, maybe a little bit longer, but I would say over the next one to two weeks dominance should go up a lot and it should go well above 60%."

"My point is this is if we're going to get it, it's going to happen in the next two months. Because if it doesn't happen in the next two months, then it's not going to happen this cycle is my opinion."

"the PI cycle top because it did a good job last cycle likely won't signal this cycle even if there is a parabolic rally. One of the reasons for that is if you divide the moving averages, you can see that every cycle we've seen diminishing peaks and the next peak would be below one. If you extrapolate...it would suggest the next peak will not go above one, meaning the moving averages will not cross, meaning the PI cycle top will not trigger if you use it in the conventional sense."

"What I think and I I even said this when I started my channel back in 2019 that when when Bitcoin closes the weekly closes below the 50WE moving average, you know, sometime by the end of the post having year or going into the midterm year, the cycle's over, right? The cycle's over. ... And if and when the 50week moving average is breached on two weekly closes, then I have to start wondering if that means the cycle's over."

"if you do get a rally from here, it has to be Bitcoin le, right? Like Bitcoin would have to lead it. ... if there is a parabolic rally into the end of the year, Bitcoin's got to lead the way. and altcoins won't start moving in any durable fashion until after Bitcoin takes out the prior all-time high."

"the only way the only way the cycle can continue from here is if Bitcoin can hold above the 50we moving average on weekly closes."

"if price action stays suppressed, we're likely going to see a death cross. ... And perhaps, like it always has, it'll correspond to a local low. ... So the 50-day SMA, the 200 day SMA, they're probably going to cross in the next few weeks. So watch for that. That would likely correspond to a local low in the market when it happens."

"I still argue as I have the entire cycle, Bitcoin remains the better play compared to other cryptocurrencies in for the entire cycle, but also in the very very short term for at least the next two weeks, maybe week and a half."

"if the top is in the, you know, the the 5 to 10% drop that it would take to kind of confirm that the top is in weekly closes below 100K would be a lot less painful than the 30 to 50% drops you would likely see altcoins experience if Bitcoin were to do that."