S&P 500: Year-To-Date Returns

"it might lead to a slight drop here over the next couple of weeks, next few weeks, uh maybe 3 to four weeks."

"If the S&P rolls over here into August, September, like it has in some of those prior post-election years where inflation and unemployment were an issue, then in 2026, it would likely set up a a recession"

"If initial claims stay below 300,000, then it's more likely the stock market will just trend higher"

"If initial claims go over 300K, then it might imply a lower low in Q3."

"I would expect the next low to be in August or September."

"If it's a higher low, then 2026 might not be all that bad. I mean, it might be a flat year is slightly down. It might not be as bad."

"I'm thinking you'll see something similar this time. That could cause the stock market to stall out a little bit in August, September."