Unemployment Rate Stays at 4.2%

"My guess is it's likely going to go higher, uh, over the summer. The summer tends to be a pretty weak time for the labor market."

"So my guess is that we will see this start to go back up into November."

"you can see right now we're basically locked in for a pause at the next meeting, which is June 18th. And there's also a really high chance they're going to keep rates paused in July. In fact, the next the the the the month that might give us a rate cut, assuming the markets stay somewhat well well behaved, is not until September."

"what if they cut rates and then people still don't hire as much and maybe maybe that's sort of the the future uh like oh crap moment whenever that happens... you get really aggressive rate cuts, but companies are still not hiring because, well, they have all these AI tools that'll allow them to to do the job they need and they don't have to hire people."

"Initial claims have started to rise, and this is something we've talked about before. We said to expect initial claims to rise into the summer."

"My guess is it probably will going into the summer. Um, and for the reasons we mentioned, right? Like the the labor market tends to just weaken in the summer. We normally see initial claims go up. We likely will see the unemployment rate go up as we get out into the summer"