Bitcoin: The Golden Cross Dump

"But if we sort of reverse towards the mean outcome, which is a dump after the golden cross, then this was always sort of the most likely outcome, even if it doesn't always have to happen, right? If it happens 70% of the time, 75% of the time, it's at least worth talking about and being aware of of that outcome. So, I would keep an eye on this because we didn't just we did just have the golden cross."

"usually if we do get when we do get golden cross dumps, uh at the very least you would expect a 10 to 15% pullback if it's going to be like most other dumps after golden crosses."

"You could have about 9%, 10% that would get Bitcoin back to around 100K."

"Always possible it goes a little bit lower to say like the 50-day SMA uh and or the 200 day SMA. it was about in the mid 90s uh before a bounce. But at one of those levels, you know, if the pullback continues, that's kind of where you would expect it uh to to find some relief."

"what can happen at the conference is you'll see sort of a runup before the conference and then as the conference arrives Bitcoin will sort of pull back right it'll pull back as the conference arrives and then as the conference begins it'll then start to find support again right and or find some renewed strength. uh it could go down lower right before getting that renewed strength."

"And so if this sell-off is sort of the beginning of that, right, that basically gets you to the start of the conference."

"if it were to do what it did last year at the conference... if that plays out and you you get sort of a pullback here and then you get sort of renewed strength into the conference and if it sweeps that prior high, then that that could actually get you to that trend line, right? To that trend line."

"if this does continue, like, you know, if you get a few more days where it just drops back down, uh, to around 100K, it would be very similar as the move that we got going into the the Bitcoin conference last year."

"the Q3 weakness will likely start to present itself. I'm going to guess by mid June uh you'll probably start to see that Q3 weakness take hold and markets start to price it in."