Bitcoin, Stocks, and Inflation

"my base case right now... there likely will not be any type of durable Bounce by risk assets until at least March Opex which is a little over a week way it could take as long as early to mid April... I'm going to keep saying probably going to keep going down through March Opex at the very least and could extend into early to mid April... there was never really going to be a lot of true strength in Risk assets this year until q1 is over"

"if this cycle plays out like most cycles for Bitcoin then it would start to show a little bit of strength as we get further out into the second quarter especially early on in the second quarter... it didn't truly start to pick up until April"

"I think there will be a counter Trend rally um later this spring going into potentially the summer"

"if the stock market goes lower then the expectation would be that that Bitcoin would ultimately go lower even in 2017 Bitcoin had a had a drop in early 2017 where it tested the 2016 high so and it happened by the way you know fairly early on I would argue that's very much an outcome to consider for this cycle testing the 2024 High which is you know in the lower s 7s as long as Bitcoin stays above that level and it I'm not saying it can't Wick below it right no one's getting out of a bed for a wick but if it if we get closes and especially if if even if there's a wick if there's a wick into the low 60s then there's a good chance the Cycle's over if it stays above the 2024 High then the party could easily go on... if Bitcoin can get out of the current mess right now without going below the 2024 High then the structure of the market is still intact if it goes much below the 2024 high and goes into the low 60s that's where the structure of the market is caught into question a lot... if it goes into the 60s then I I I would argue that the more likely outcome would be a macro lower high in Q2 Q3 potentially around like the August time frame"

"now I think Trump wants the markets to sell off in the short term because he's a real estate guy and he knows that in order to get real estate back to what it used to be you need low rates and I think he'd rather get this uncertain phase over with now and frontload a lot of these changes in policy than to drag it out over multiple years so by frontloading it it leads to a pretty big pretty big deleveraging in the markets uh and then I'm guessing sometime later on the spring that rhetoric will start to die down"

"I don't really think we're going to have like a massive secondary wave of inflation where inflation goes beyond 10% anytime soon"

"I'm more concerned about the unemployment rate going up as as the next you know couple years go by rather than inflation I think that might be the bigger issue"

"I don't really think that housing inflation is going to continue uh I I don't think it's going to start going up anytime soon and because I I think that housing inflation will continue to fall I think that's going to be uh a headwind for inflation going higher thereby making it where it's more likely to continue to see low lower head headline inflation"