Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

"I wouldn't be that surprised if if we see ethusd sort of fall back in here in the coming weeks if it follows this pattern that we've seen right where it gets p ation Wick bounces and then comes back down to try to find another sort of macro higher low or maybe not a macro higher low but just a higher low compared to the wick"

"if you look at indices in in stocks and we look at just the S&P 500 and look at the year 2025 and average out all prior post election years there can be weakness um in March for whatever reason right for whatever reason like there can be weakness in March and and then you can see that on average the market then picks up in April of postelection years"

"if there is unfavorable seasonality for the next month or so then it I mean it very well could lead ethereum down a a similar path right sort of down one of these similar types of moves where it it falls back in um and and then doesn't go back up until until later on in the year"

"what if you know the market bounces around here for a while and it just kind of bounces around there and then you get a drop into that low around the time the Fed ends quantitative tightening and it could also correspond to the next rate hike by the bankage pan... it would in fact take ethereum deeper into the logarithmic aggression trend line it would actually take it to write around where that fair value is"

"if Bitcoin goes to New highs then you would likely see eth underperform Bitcoin again because again that's what's happened the entire cycle it hasn't changed and I don't think it's going to change until we actually get a big pivot in monetary policy... if eth does bounce here and gets back above its bu Mark peran and does go to new highs you could make the argument that eth Bitcoin would in fact still bleed because every other time that that has happened eth Bitcoin has bled"

"the way for eth Bitcoin to truly and convincingly bottom where people are actually going to believe it I think would be for it to for it to break down here but it only breaks down if Bitcoin struggles to put in a new high then it would likely cause eth USD to break below support which would then likely lead to a change in monetary policy... there does exist a scenario where e Bitcoin bounces back to the bullmark sport band and then comes back down to a double bottom as the FED ends quantitive tightening"

"I believe the goal for you know at the bank Japan is to raise rates to 1% by January of 2026... the conjecture has been that the next increase will come in July... there have been some former boj members that have said that if things keep going the way they are with the economy and inflation where things are picking up they might have to raise rates sooner you know it might end up happening sooner than July"

"in the last fomc minutes they have said that there's a good chance they're going to end quantitative tightening this summer"