Bitcoin: Cliff Dwellers

"I think the most likely outcome in the short term for the dollar is to go back up to 108 109 that's what I think will happen in the coming weeks around 108 to 109"

"my base case has been no all-time highs until it goes through agression ban and then you'll see it you'll see eth Bitcoin bottom... I think it's going to break its higher low structure and then come back down and put it a macro higher low that's exactly actually what I think ethusd is going to do... and then it goes to an all-time high"

"within the within the next few years the most likely outcome is that this chart eventually looks like this chart where you have a low in the bull market and then you test that low in a future cycle it bounces and then it slowly goes down and then goes below that low right same thing right same thing low tests the low goes below the low"

"I wouldn't be surprised if in two years even though the price could go higher in the short term right... I just think that you're you're likely you're likely going to see Tesla in this box for a couple more years that's what I think it's sort of my base case right now"

"if it's a left translated cycle for Bitcoin it means that you probably get a drop soon a big drop and then you probably get a big rally in Q2 or Q3 probably Q2 um into a macro lower high that's what left translated cycles look like"

"base case for me for adaa Bitcoin is that it just bleeds back down here that's that's what I think the base case is remember last cyc went to 400 stats it already went to 470... so you might just see it sort of bleed back down to the lows again"

"if 400 SATs on dot is not the bottom then it's got to be a relic... last cycle we saw Ada a Bitcoin bleed about 96% and then it bottomed when QT ended so maybe you see the same thing happen with uh with DOT Bitcoin"

"I'm sort of thinking it's probably going to go back down to this trend line at the very least it'll probably come back down to 1500 stats um sort of the the weekly candle bottom from November that's what I'm thinking"

"I still continue to think that there will not be a sufficient pivot in monetary policy until after we see this devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs to the range lows right that's ultimately what I think uh will eventually happen"

"if you look at S&P seasonality in postelection years... there is often some unfavorable seasonality from around mid February through you know about mid- March or so... if it were to play out then it might it might allow all Bitcoin pairs to actually go to their range lows"

"if if we take out 64 I think the next uh the next Milestone will be 66 um that's sort of the next like major Fibonacci level"

"my guess is something similar will probably happen again [under Trump's presidency, as in 2017 when he fired some federal workers and it went down for a little while and then started to go back up later]... he wants to increase his labor Supply and reduce aggregate demand... he wants to revive the real estate market by the end of his presidency"

"I honestly I don't think we will I think we might get a little bit of a surge like we've seen but I don't think it's going to be anything like what we saw in the 1970s"

"with all with all Bitcoin pairs still off their lows I don't I don't really see a reason why it can't go higher you know Bitcoin dominance"