Bitcoin: Pre-Labor Market Release

"Bitcoin did eventually sweep all of those lows right... and we have talked about you know that outcome as well right where it where it eventually sweeps those lows and you can see the last year it didn't sweep those lows until late January right like January 22nd so it would be another like week and a half from now um so that I I think is is something to consider here as well because the prior low you know is around down is just above 90k it's like 90.7k the prior low over here that eventually got swept was 4.1k right so nice round numbers in both cases 40K 90k eventually last year we saw Bitcoin go all the way down to 38k"

"today the 100 day moving average corresponds to approximately 85k okay... that's also something to consider here over the next week or two is let's suppose you do get a bounce right let's suppose you do get a bounce you could still see it go down here eventually sweep that Wick and maybe tag the 100 day moving average before then getting another bounce"

"the bull market support ban for Bitcoin is actually a little bit lower than 85k right that's actually all the way down around 79k to 83k and you know some people have said well what's the worst case scenario in the short term... if you lose the bull Mark s band you could always potentially retest that level"

"if the unemployment rate comes in low then it would likely lead to a rally by Bitcoin right and if it comes in high then it might lead to a selloff"

"one of the things you could see too is I mean you could see a bounce and then sort of sweep those lows later on um in in January"

"One of the things we said was that it would likely bounce as the FED cut and you can see that it did right it got a really strong bounce here's where the FED cut in September following that rate cut the 2-year yield bounc a lot"

"the dollar would likely rally after rate Cuts... I do think the dollar will likely top out sometime in q1 of 2025"

"if it if it first sells off that might not be the real move if it first goes up it might not be the real move sometimes what you'll see is the opposite of what it's going to do sort of the following day or a few hours later it'll sort of liquidate people in One Direction and then go the other direction"

"we have talked about you know that outcome as well right where it where it eventually sweeps those lows and you can see the last year it didn't sweep those lows until late January right like January 22nd so it would be another like week and a half from now"

"today the 100 day moving average corresponds to approximately 85k... you could still see it go down here eventually sweep that Wick and maybe tag the 100 day moving average before then getting another bounce"

"if the unemployment rate comes in low then it would likely lead to a rally by Bitcoin right and if it comes in high then it might lead to a selloff"

"I do think the dollar will likely top out sometime in q1 of 2025"

"where is the 10e yield actually going to top is it going to come back all the way up here and sweep that high which is a possibility and it it might be my base case"