ilmscore | Why Did Bitcoin Drop Today?

Why Did Bitcoin Drop Today?

Published: 2025-01-07
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
A significant second wave of inflation is not expected immediately or to the same extent as 2022, but could potentially emerge in 2026.
"my base case is not a second wave of inflation and not at least not immediately and then not to the same extent that we had here in 2022 that doesn't mean you can eventually get one right you could get one maybe in 2026..."
Inflation
Pending
Inflation is not expected to accelerate in the exact same manner as the 1970s cycle.
"I'll tell you the reason why I don't think we're going to see inflation accelerate the exact same way it did in the 1970s"
Inflation
Pending
The 10-year yield is likely to top in Q1 2025, followed by a drop due to a negative economic data point, causing the market to prioritize labor market concerns over inflation.
"I think the 10e yield would likely put in a top in q1 that's my guess and that something will happen to make the 10-year yield drop something will happen we'll get a bad data Point somewhere and then the market will then become more concerned about the labor market than inflation"
10-Year Yield, Economic Indicators
Pending
The 10-year yield is predicted to drop for the rest of 2025. In 2026, it might either rise again or experience a significant drop if a recession occurs.
"and then drop for maybe the rest of the year and then in 2026 maybe it it actually goes up again or if you get a recession it could drop a lot right so but again that that larger drop or that larger move up might not actually occur until 2026 right sort of another leg higher"
10-Year Yield, Recession
Pending
The 2-year Treasury yield was predicted to increase (from ~3.5%) if initial claims remained below 300,000. (Prediction made in September 2024, confirmed by speaker in January 2025 transcript).
"I said guys you know until initial claims are printed 300K there's no reason to assume that the 2-year yield is going to be breaking down so if initial claims are still so low then what the hell is the 10 year or the two-year yield doing it 3 and a half% doesn't make any sense so the only direction for the two-year yield to go was up"
2-year Treasury Yield
Pending
The labor market will continue to loosen up (e.g., higher unemployment, lower hirers/quits) for 6 to 12 months from January 2025.
"the Market's obviously looking at the labor market and seeing that you know it's loosened up a lot and it's probably going to continue to loosen up over the next 6 to 12 months"
Labor Market
Pending
A significant second wave of inflation, comparable to 2022, is not expected immediately, but one could potentially occur in 2026.
"it's not like right now my base case is not a second wave of inflation and not at least not immediately and then not to the same extent that we had here in 2022 that doesn't mean you can eventually get one right you could get one maybe in 2026"
Inflation
Pending
The 10-year Treasury yield is predicted to top in Q1 2025, drop for the rest of 2025 due to a 'growth scare,' and potentially rise again in 2026.
"I've talked a lot about the 10-year yield potentially topping in q1 of 2025 that's been my base case right ... and I think the 10e yield would likely put in a top in q1 that's my guess and that something will happen to make the 10-year yield drop ... and then drop for maybe the rest of the year and then in 2026 maybe it it actually goes up again"
10-year Treasury Yield
Pending