Published: 2024-12-03
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin was predicted to experience a painful bleed lasting 6-9 months, after which the bull market would theoretically resume. (This was noted in the video as having largely played out by September 2024).
"Bitcoin would likely go through a painful bleed that would last about 6 to 9 months at which point the bull market should theoretically resume."
Pending
Bitcoin could see another upward push by the end of 2024 if it continues to follow its cyclical patterns.
"if Bitcoin is to continue to follow the cyclical view then it could get one more push higher before the end of the year."
Pending
The US dollar and long-end treasury yields (implied 10-year yield, US10Y) are predicted to rally into the end of 2024, with the dollar getting one final push.
"the dollar would likely rally into the end of the year and I think it's going to get one final push into the end of the year... if the dollar is to Rally into the end of the year it would imply that the long end rallies into the end of the year."
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to reach $120,000 by the end of 2024, based on tracking 3x its yearly open price of $40,000 and following the average of prior halving years.
"if it is able to track the average of Prior Happ years into the end of the year it would put it at 3x from the yearly open... 120k."
Pending
Bitcoin could experience a correction around January 20th, 2025, potentially coinciding with the US inauguration and Gary Gensler's resignation.
"you could get a correction at that point [54 weeks after the ETF launch]... the week of January 20th is inauguration... that causes a potential correction in January."
Pending
Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trend into the end of 2024 if the US unemployment rate comes in at 4.0% or 4.1%.
"if the unemployment rate were to come in at 4% or 4.1 then it would likely favor Bitcoin to continue to go up into the end of the year."
Pending
If the US unemployment rate is 4.2%, Bitcoin's reaction would be neutral, with a chance it could cool off for the rest of 2024.
"if it's 4.2% I would argue that it's probably more so neutral... if it comes in at 4.2 there's a chance that [Bitcoin cools off for the rest of the year] happens."
Pending
If the US unemployment rate comes in at 4.3% or higher, it would be negative for Bitcoin, possibly leading to a larger correction before January 2025.
"if it comes in at 4.3 plus I I think that would be sort of construed as bad... and you might actually get a larger correction by Bitcoin before January."
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to increase if labor market data is low (favoring Bitcoin strength), or if Bitcoin undergoes a correction, or if Bitcoin rallies above $100K.
"if the unemployment rate does come in really low... Bitcoin dominance could in fact bounce... if there is a correction by Bitcoin we might actually see Bitcoin dominance go back up... if Bitcoin got a rally above 100K then you would likely see dominance go back up."
Pending
Bitcoin was predicted to experience a 6-9 month price decline in 2024, after which the bull market would resume.
"Bitcoin would likely go through a painful bleed that would last about 6 to 9 months at which point the bull market should theoretically resume"
Pending
Bitcoin was predicted to hit a mid-cycle top at $73k, followed by a 30-week period before breaking out, mirroring historical patterns tied to gold's breakout.
"what if this time is not different and the Breakout by gold marks another midcycle top for Bitcoin at 73k not a market cycle top but a midcycle top and what if it takes about the same amount of time to break out that would put it at about 30 weeks or so"
Pending
Bitcoin's direction in early November 2024 was predicted to depend on favorable labor market data, leading to a continuation of its cyclical uptrend.
"it would likely wait until early November to make a decision... if the labor market data comes in okay then it's likely that Bitcoin continues its w and follows the cyclical View"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate for the current month (Dec 2024, reflecting Nov data) is 4.0% or 4.1%, Bitcoin is likely to rally higher through the end of 2024.
"if the unemployment rate were to come in at 4% or 4.1 then it would likely favor Bitcoin to continue to go up into the end of the year"
Pending
The US Dollar (DXY) is predicted to have one final rally push into the end of 2024, put in a low in early December 2024, and then rally into early January 2025.
"I think it's going to get one final push into the end of the year... the dollar put in these higher lows and it it then put in another low in early December and then rallied on up into early January"
Pending
If the US Dollar rallies into the end of 2024, the long end of the yield curve (10-year yield) is implied to rally by the end of 2024.
"if the dollar is to Rally into the end of the year it would imply that the long end rallies into the end of the year"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate for the current month is 4.2%, Bitcoin's price may cool off for the remainder of 2024, similar to its 2016 performance after reaching its year-to-date ROI.
"if it comes in at 4.2 there's a chance that happens [Bitcoin cooling off]... defer to sort of that 2016 view where it already kind of hit that year-to-date Roi and it's just going to cool off for the rest of the year"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate for the current month is 4.3% or higher, it would be a negative signal for Bitcoin, suggesting its recent uptrend was short-lived and the unemployment rate's upward movement will continue.
"if it if it comes in at 4.3 plus I I think that would be sort of construed as bad right I think that would be construed as bad if it if it were to come in at 4.3% because then it would suggest that this move here was just very shortlived and that it's just going to Simply continue higher"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate comes in low, Bitcoin is likely to start moving up again around mid-December 2024.
"if the unemployment rate comes in low then what you're likely going to see happen you know maybe about mid December or so is Bitcoin start to move up once again"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate comes in high, it could lead to an economic 'landing' (downturn), causing fear of further unemployment increases and negatively impacting Bitcoin.
"if it comes in high the unemployment rate comes in high then maybe you up getting the landing after all and then people start to then get fearful that there's still a lot more to go with the unemployment rate before it's truly topped out"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to reach $120,000 (3x its yearly open of $40k) by January 2025, mirroring QQQ's post-launch performance, potentially followed by a price correction around 54 weeks after its ETF launch (January 20, 2025).
"if it is able to track the average of Prior Happ years into the end of the year it would put it at 3x from the yearly open now the yearly open was around 40K right so 3x from the yearly open is 120k which is exactly where the QQQ went one year after it launched... I'm not suggesting that Bitcoin has to find a market cycle top 54 weeks after the ETF launch but you could get a correction at that point"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to experience a potential correction in January 2025, specifically around the week of January 20th (54 weeks after the ETF launch), possibly triggered by the US inauguration and Gary Gensler's resignation causing market uncertainty.
"54 weeks after the ETF launch happens to be the week of January 20th... that causes a potential correction in January"
Pending
Bitcoin typically experiences a price correction in January of post-halving years (e.g., January 2025).
"it actually does typically get a correction in January of post having years"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate comes in low, leading to rallies in the long end of the yield curve and the US Dollar, Bitcoin dominance is likely to bounce.
"if the unemployment rate does come in really low and everything comes in low it likely means the long end rallies it means the dollar rallies and if those two rally and we're still risk on then it would likely mean that Bitcoin would would sort of catch a Tailwind from that and Bitcoin dominance could in fact bounce"
Pending
If the US unemployment rate comes in high, Bitcoin may experience a larger price correction before January 2025.
"if it comes in bad if it comes in high it's probably a bad thing and you might actually get a larger correction by Bitcoin before January"
Pending
If Bitcoin experiences a correction in December 2024 or January 2025 (potentially after reaching above $100k), USDT dominance could see a strong upward move.
"if there is a correction whether it be say in December from the current levels or whether it's say in January potentially you know a year at after the ETF launch and maybe at a higher you know it could be at a higher valuation right it could be Bitcoin could be above 100K then you know you could get a very strong move by usct dominance back up to the upside"
Pending
If Bitcoin experiences a correction or if it rallies above $100k, Bitcoin dominance is likely to increase (potentially not reaching a new higher high).
"if there is a correction by Bitcoin we might actually see Bitcoin dominance go back up not necessarily to a higher high but we probably would see it go back up... or if Bitcoin got a rally above 100K then you would likely see dominance go back up"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to react to the US labor market data releases occurring this week (Dec 2-6, 2024).
"my guess is you're going to see a reaction by Bitcoin following the labor market release which is all going to be happening this week"
Pending