Bitcoin: Fear & Greed

"we talked about how every single time well at least not every single time right but last cycle once 90 was hit we then eventually went down you know into the uh below 30 and you can see the same thing happened once again"

"we said like it's likely going to take about a six a six-month period at the very least to break out that's the same thing that happened this cycle right it took about 6 months to ultimately break out"

"if Bitcoin sort of stalls out for a few weeks and doesn't continue higher then you know retail might lose some of that interest"

"the only year where it really durably goes down is the post having year which will be next year"

"If Bitcoin were to break into the 90,000 range and start to approach a 100 then it would seem likely that the fear and greed index would go up into the up into the 90s itself"

"until the end of the year or the second week of January at the latest I think it makes sense to be open-minded that dominance uh could in fact still continue uh to go higher"

"I do think this trend line will eventually break it has to because if it doesn't it will imply that usdt dominance will just eventually go to 100% so it it will likely break at some point"

"if this breaks down I would then start looking at horizontal support levels for USD dominance right so like 3.8% um... if the if this structure breaks then I think that would be sort of the next level to look at about that 3.85% level"

"if it's just a day or two where we're above 90 then that might not be enough to really bring the masses back but if we spend a couple of months in this range like we did at the end of 2020 then that could be enough to bring the masses back"

"if you get multiple data points points where the 30-day SME is in the 90s then it would favor you know retail coming back"

"if we are getting multiple 90 prints and people are just absolutely euphoric and you're seeing other indicators flash some some worrying signals then you're probably going to get a pullback"

"there's a good chance that you will see a pullback like that at some point and it could correspond to the fear and greed index getting into some of those higher levels"

"if you're curious if you're altcoins will really start to run against Bitcoin it might actually depend on how much time we spend in extreme greed right if it's just a day or two where we're above 90 then that might not be enough to really bring the masses back but if we spend a couple of months in this range like we did at the end of 2020 then that could be enough to bring the masses back"

"if the 30-day moving average goes all the way up to in the 90s itself right where instead of just a single data point where if it's if it's if it's just one or two data points the 30-day SMA won't go into the '90s but if you get multiple data points points where the 30-day SME is in the 90s then it would favor you know retail coming back"

"for now it is not that it's trending in that direction and will likely continue to Trend in that direction as long as Bitcoin continues to go to higher highs"

"Bitcoin dominance normally goes down in post having years is because retail comes back and normally when retail comes back they go buy alt and and Bitcoin will usually then stall out for a little bit once retail gets back... the only year where it really durably goes down is the post having year which will be next year"

"if Bitcoin were to break into the 90,000 range and start to approach a 100 then it would seem likely that the fear and greed index would go up into the up into the 90s itself and then the question is do you get just a single data point up in the 90s like one or two kind of like 2024 and 2019 or do you get multiple data points up there like 2020 and I think a lot of that's going to come down to again does Bitcoin go high enough for retail to actually return or you know does it not like do we get the big headline you know the six figure headline or do we delay it"

"I do think there will be likely a a pullback before hitting six figures... so there's a good chance that you will see a pullback like that at some point"

"until the end of the year or the second week of January at the latest I think it makes sense to be open-minded that dominance uh could in fact still continue uh to go higher"

"I do think this trend line will eventually break it has to because if it doesn't it will imply that usdt dominance will just eventually go to 100% so it it will likely break at some point"

"if this breaks down I would then start looking at horizontal support levels for USD dominance right so like 3.8% ... if the if this structure breaks then I think that would be sort of the next level to look at about that 3.85% level"