Published: 2024-11-09
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The lowest valuation for ETH against Bitcoin in the current cycle was predicted to be between 0.03 and 0.04 BTC.
"for me the low for eth Bitcoin for the cycle was always going to be between 003 to 004 always right I've said that for years 03 to 04"
Pending
The bottom for the ETH/BTC valuation is either already in or very close (as of November 2024), considering both price and timing.
"there is a case to be made that the low for eth Bitcoin is either in or very very close to being in both in terms of valuation and in terms of time"
Pending
The speaker considers the ETH/BTC low of 0.03465 (as of November 2024) to be sufficient as the cycle's bottom, fitting within his 0.03-0.04 prediction.
"the current low of 03465 is good enough for me right it's good enough for me it's between 0.3 to 0.4"
Pending
The bottom for ETH/BTC is likely in once it has durably broken down and then moved back above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
"whenever it gets back above the 50-day SMA after durably breaking down then the bottom could be in"
Pending
If ETH/BTC drops below its current low (as of November 2024), it is most likely to happen before the end of 2024.
"if eth Bitcoin is going to go lower it's probably going to do so before 202... if it's going to go below the current low it'll do so before the end of the year"
Pending
The speaker has a 60% confidence level that the ETH/BTC bottom has occurred (as of November 2024), partly due to Bitcoin dominance reaching 60%.
"I'm probably like say 6040 right I'm more so leaning towards it being in than not especially because dominance has hit 60"
Pending
ETH/BTC could potentially fall lower if quantitative tightening by central banks continues for some time.
"because quantitative tightening is going to likely continue for at least a little while there's a chance that eth Bitcoin could go lower"
Pending
Historically, in years when ETH/BTC has experienced a breakdown, ETH/USD has dropped to its lower logarithmic regression trend line in December of that year (implying a risk for December 2024).
"every year that eth Bitcoin coin has broken down ethusd went to the lower logarithmic regression trend line in December of that year"
Pending
Even if ETH/BTC has found its bottom (as of November 2024), there remains a risk that ETH/USD could experience another drop in December 2024.
"if it has [ETH/BTC bottomed] there still is a risk that ethusd drops again in December"
Pending
ETH/USD would only drop below $2,000 if the broader crypto market, including Bitcoin, also experiences a significant sell-off.
"the only way for eth to go home is for the broader Market to sell off right there there's not a compelling you know there's not a compelling case to be made that ethusd drops back below $2,000 and bitcoin's not also dropping"
Pending
ETH/BTC is anticipated to start a turnaround and potentially rally, particularly in 2025.
"we've sort of slowly started to enter a new phase of the cycle where eth Bitcoin could start to turn things around especially in 2025"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance was predicted to reach 60% by the beginning of 2025.
"Bitcoin dominance is going to 60% going into 2025"
Pending
There is a possibility that Bitcoin could experience a significant correction in 2025, as opposed to 2024.
"there does exist a scenario where it just does it in 2025 and not 2024"
Pending
The worst-case price scenario for ETH/BTC is a drop to 0.03 BTC.
"The worst case scenario for eth Bitcoin as I've said in my opinion is 003"
Pending
There's a possibility that ETH/BTC could be lower, potentially around 0.032, within one month (by December 2024).
"there is a reality where we just sort of check back in here in a month and it's just simply lower than it is today right it maybe it's at 032 or something"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance could potentially overshoot the 60% mark in December 2024.
"It could overshoot it in December but that was my best guess"
Pending
Bitcoin maintaining a price above $70,000 supports a continuing cyclical bullish view; a drop back below $70,000 would signal a red flag for the market.
"I do think if Bitcoin were to drop back below 70k that would be a red flag... defer to the cyclical view as long as Bitcoin is above 70k"
Pending
A short-term drop in Bitcoin below $70,000 could trigger a significant drop in ETH/USD, taking it 'home' (to its lower logarithmic regression trend line).
"if Bitcoin goes below 70k again in the short term then it's possible we get the landing right which takes eth USD home"
Pending
The market phase where Ethereum consistently underperformed Bitcoin is ending, and the market is transitioning into a new phase (as of November 2024).
"I think we're ending that phase [where ETH consistently underperforms BTC] and sort of transitioning into a new phase"
Pending