The Labor Market (and Bitcoin)

"I have said many times I do think we are approaching a very critical decision time for Bitcoin which I think it's making that decision sometime this week"

"if ethereum were to drop in Q4 which has been my base case that it will drop in November and December... I think it's going to get one more scare in December... what happens for assets like ethereum is that it sells off sometime in November December comes back down to this trend line sort of by December and then starts to move up"

"there's a good chance we'll see it at least go up one more time when we get the the the report for us October"

"my guess is that in a few months might be more obvious like why you know maybe there will be a negative print uh sometime over the next few months"

"there's probably going to be a surge here going into Q4 2024 and I think the important thing is will it be another lower high or will it be a higher high you can see that in July there tends to be another smaller Surge and the 2023 high was a little bit lower than the 2024 High there is a suggestion here that perhaps the Q4 surge by this metric could be higher than it was last year since sort of the mid cycle or the midyear surge was higher than last year"

"I do think later on in November probably the second week at the latest it will start trending up again which should be a drag on all Bitcoin pairs"