Bitcoin: Market Cycles

"I mentioned earlier this year back in March was that there was a high chance that Bitcoin had just gotten ahead of schedule and that it would likely slowly bleed until it got back in line with the prior cycles"

"it's unclear if it's not just going to follow what it always does which is you know get a push later on in October"

"when you measure things from the low it looks like Bitcoin is due to start moving up soon if it's going to follow the last two cycles... if it plays out like the last two cycles then Bitcoin goes up in Q4"

"Ben you aren't you bearish on on eth in Q4 I am... 2016 eth has been a perfect match to 2024 eth so far in terms of monthly candles and back then September was green just like this September was but then October November December were red even though Bitcoin went up"

"which would support Bitcoin still outperforming the altcoin market for at least for maybe another month or two"

"bitcoin's main resistance level is going to be coming up somewh up here right you know 67k 68k if it can get through that then and and and hold that as support then you're probably just looking at a at a Q4 having year that looks like every other Q4 having year"

"I still do think that Bitcoin dominance will go to that 60% Milestone"

"one of which is you know sort of a rally back up and then there's a pullback early November and then it gets above it holds it as support and then it just continues on right that's one view"

"The other view is where Bitcoin follows ethereum down if ethereum does what it did in 2016 and in 2019 after eth Bitcoin broke down eth USD dropped approximately 70% if it and it and the final drop occurred in Q4 if Bitcoin follows eth ... then it could get rejected come back down one more time check in with a 100 we SMA like 2019 and then go up in 2025"

"I told you guys this back over here in you know in July I said that for the 2019 comparison to be complete we need another lower low at the bottom of this trend line and people are like no way right there's no way bitcoin's going to go to 50K and then it did"

"if the unemployment rate keeps dropping in Q4 it would probably favor risk assets to still do well right and you could see Bitcoin go up and Q4"

"if the unemployment rate say shoots back up in you know next month um then then you might actually see Bitcoin and eth go back down and then go back up after you know after we get that scare out of the way"

"where the dollar goes up into the end of the year"