Published: 2024-10-04
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is predicted to rally through the end of 2024, top out at the end of 2024 or early 2025, and subsequently drop in 2025.
"base case I think is going to be that the dollar continue us to Rally through the end of the year is my guess okay that's my guess and then I'm guessing it tops out at the end of the year early next year and then drops in 2025"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to reach 60% in Q4 2024.
"I do think Bitcoin dominance still will go to 60% in Q4"
Pending
If Bitcoin experiences two consecutive red weekly candles after October 4, 2024, followed by a small rally in early November (due to a potential 25 bps Fed rate cut), its price action is predicted to resemble August 2019, suggesting potential for further declines or consolidation.
"if the next two weeks are red like this right if the next two weeks are red and then you get another little pop in early November when the FED Cuts maybe 25 basis points then I would say it's more likely that we're here [August 2019]"
Pending
If Bitcoin avoids two consecutive red weekly candles after October 4, 2024, and instead rallies and breaks through resistance, its price action is predicted to resemble the Q4 rallies of 2016 and 2020.
"if on the other hand the next two weeks are not red and Bitcoin rallies up here and breaks through then I think you make the argument that we're here [similar to 2016/2020 Q4 rallies]"
Pending
If Bitcoin surpasses the $63,000-$64,000 resistance level (which includes the 20-week SMA and 200-day SMA), it is predicted to continue rising in Q4 2024. Conversely, if it finds resistance at this level, its price action is expected to resemble the post-rate-cut period of the last cycle (implying a potential sell-off or extended consolidation).
"if Bitcoin can get back through that [63k-64k] and and and put in a higher high again then it definitely raises the odds of of Bitcoin continuing to go up in Q4 if Bitcoin just finds resistance at 63 to 64k again then there's more evidence to suggest that it's just playing out like it did after rate Cuts last cycle"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to decrease in 2025, leading to outperformance by riskier altcoins against Bitcoin.
"and then 2025 Bitcoin dominance finally goes down and the riskier stuff finally starts to out for Bitcoin that's kind of what I'm thinking happens right"
Pending
If Bitcoin's price bleeds down after its rate cut rally, it is predicted to drop back to the 100-week moving average in Q4 2024.
"but if it does this where it just slowly bleeds back down after your your rate cut rally then I I think you're you know you could very well be setting up for a drop back to the 100 we moving average right so that's what what I would look for in Q4"
Pending
The two-year yield is expected to reach 4.1-4.2%, with a potential rise to 4.5% if it breaks through that level.
"I wouldn't be surprised to at least see it make it to the bull market support ban around 4.1 to 4.2% um if it can get through that then maybe back testing this which would take it all the way up to 4.5% so that's what I would be looking for as far as as far as the yield curve goes"
Pending
If the unemployment rate remains low in November 2024, the Som Rule recession indicator is predicted to drop below 0.5.
"it's possible if the unemployment rate comes in low again then it'll go below 0.5 right so let's keep an eye on that for next month"
Pending
Inflation is not expected to reaccelerate until around October 2025.
"I don't really think we need to worry about inflation reaccelerating this early I think if it's going to happen it it'll probably be you know another year from now before that happens"
Pending
If the US dollar continues its rally, the approximation of global money supply (M2) could fall back into its previous wedge pattern.
"if the dollar continues to rally for long enough then this could actually go back into this wedge"
Pending