Published: 2024-09-12
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The ETH/BTC ratio is predicted to bottom between 0.03 and 0.04.
"the bottom for eth Bitcoin in my opinion is between 03 to 04"
Pending
The ETH/BTC ratio is predicted to bottom out and then start increasing in 2025.
"my guess is that eth Bitcoin is going to bottom out you know somewhere over here and then go up in 2025"
Pending
The ETH/BTC ratio is predicted to bounce before the end of 2024, potentially forming a double bottom before eventually rising.
"base case is that it it it you know bounces sometime you know before the end of the year and then goes back down and and maybe puts in like a double bottom or something before going back up"
Pending
The current economic cycle is predicted to be a blend of characteristics from the 1970s and 1940s cycles, rather than a perfect replication of either.
"this cycle will probably not look like the 1970s and it probably won't look like the 1940s... it'll probably be something in between it is my guess"
Pending
A second wave of inflation is likely to occur sometime during the 2020s decade, but it is predicted to be less severe than the 1970s.
"you can't get a second wave of inflation at some point during this decade we probably will but it might not be as bad as as what we saw in the 1970s"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut at its immediate upcoming meeting.
"I've been in the camp for a long time that they're likely just going to cut 25 basis points the very first meeting"
Pending
The Federal Reserve's target funds rate is predicted to decrease to a range of 3% to 4%, assuming no deep recession.
"my guess is that the FED funds rate unless we go into a deep recession right the FED fronts rate I'm guessing is going to go back down to around 3 to 4%"
Pending
The unemployment rate is predicted to continue a slow increase.
"my base case is the unemployment rate continues to slowly go higher"
Pending
The custom S&P index formula (S&P / (unemployment_rate^2) * US_interest_rates * US_inflation_rate) is predicted to continue trending downwards, even if the S&P 500 itself trades sideways.
"this chart will likely quickly come back down down here... this chart will likely continue trending down even if the S&P goes sideways this chart could go down because it seems like all the other three metrics are going in the direction that they would need to to make this chart ultimately go down"
Pending
All altcoin-Bitcoin pairs are predicted to capitulate and reach their range lows in due time.
"all Bitcoin pairs will finally go to their range low"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to continue absorbing liquidity from the broader market.
"it's likely just going to keep absorbing that liquidity from from the rest of the market"
Pending
The ETH/BTC ratio will bounce before the end of 2024, then potentially form a double bottom before eventually rising.
"base case is that it it it you know bounces sometime you know before the end of the year and then goes back down and and maybe puts in like a double bottom or something before going back up"
Pending
The current economic cycle (2020s) will not exactly mirror the 1970s or 1940s cycles but will be a mix of elements from both.
"this cycle will probably not look like the 1970s and it probably won't look like the 1940s you know why because it's going to look like the 2020s... it'll be it'll probably be something in between it is my guess now"
Pending
A second wave of inflation is probable in the 2020s, potentially less severe than the 1970s.
"you can't get a second wave of inflation at some point during this decade we probably will but it might not be as bad as as what we saw in the 1970s"
Pending
The Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their next meeting (scheduled for the week after the video's publication).
"my guess is that they're going to go with 25 basis points"
Pending
The Fed funds rate will likely decrease to 3-4%, assuming a deep recession is avoided.
"my guess is that the FED funds rate unless we go into a deep recession right the FED fronts rate I'm guessing is going to go back down to around 3 to 4%"
Pending
The US unemployment rate will continue to slowly increase.
"my base case is the unemployment rate continues to slowly go higher"
Pending
The macroeconomic index (S&P divided by unemployment rate squared, multiplied by US interest rates, multiplied by US inflation rate year-over-year) will likely continue its downtrend, even if the S&P 500 moves sideways.
"this chart will likely continue trending down even if the S&P goes sideways"
Pending
All altcoin/Bitcoin pairs will eventually capitulate and reach their range lows, likely after market participants have lost hope.
"but I think in in due time they will perhaps after everyone has given up on it actually happening that's when all Bitcoin pairs will finally go to their range low"
Pending