The Labor Market

"the bias in my opinion should be that the unemployment level continues to go higher until there's some form of looser monetary policy assuming that the the FED funds rate is above the neutral rate our star which I think it is so because it's above the neutral rate the unemployment level continues to go up"

"I do wonder if you're going to get sort of a third and final wave in 2024 that maybe Peaks out at the end of the year kind of like we saw the last two peak out at the end of"

"as long as the FED doesn't pivot then this number is likely going to keep on going down"

"it's probably going to still take a few more months for it to get to where they want before they're going to really start to ease consider"

"I'm guessing you'll you'll likely start to see it continue to go back up there's prior times where you'll get sort of a spike and then a pullback and then another big spike"

"I think that there is going to be um a reckoning ahead that causes the unversioned the Y curve and and it leads to the markets getting relatively spooked for a while"