Published: 2024-01-26
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
An Ethereum Spot ETF might not be approved for a lot longer than people are initially hoping for, implying Bitcoin's ETF approval is more likely to precede it.
"I think it's much more likely that that the Bitcoin one gets approved over ethereum because I think it's a little bit more clear that Bitcoin is a commodity whereas while I think it would be nice if if ethereum ether would just be declared a commodity I don't know if it's going to be that simple I mean they might push back on that for some time and therefore an ethereum ETF might not be approved for you know a lot longer than than people are initially hoping for"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance will reach 56%, causing altcoins to 'wash out' during sporadic Bitcoin rallies.
"if it did play out it means bit Bitcoin continues to wash out these altcoins on sporadic Bitcoin rallies until we hit 56% dominance"
Pending
If Bitcoin Dominance reaches 56% (sometime in the first half of 2024), Ethereum (ETH/BTC pair) will durably break its support on the weekly timeframe (a weekly close below 0.049).
"56% dominance that I think is the level where e Bitcoin durably breaks support on the weekly time frame at at 56% dominance so if sometime over the next half year we're looking at the dominance chart and it says 56% then that would imply to me that ether Bitcoin has durably broken down"
Pending
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is expected to experience a severe correction (more than 20-30%) after the ETH/BTC pair breaks down.
"eventually I'm afraid it will break and if and when it breaks is that when ethereum get it's that larger correction it could be a severe correction not just a 20 to 30% correction"
Pending
A 70% correction for Ethereum (ETH/USD) from its price at the time of publication would take it to the lower part of the regression band.
"a 70% correction from the current prices would basically put it at the lower part of the regression ban"
Pending
If Ethereum (ETH/USD) is to reach $3,000, it is likely to occur in the next couple of months (i.e., Feb-Mar 2024).
"we haven't we haven't hit 3K on eth there no guarantee that we do right but what I can say is that if it's going to happen it's probably going to happen in the next couple of months right"
Pending
All altcoins are expected to break down against Bitcoin over time until looser monetary policy is implemented.
"my crypto portfolio is just Bitcoin heavy because I basically expect almost everything else to break down against it over time until we get back you said it to looser monetary policy"
Pending
Ethereum (ETH/BTC pair) is predicted to break down against Bitcoin in a few months (i.e., by late H1 2024).
"first I would would need to see ether break down against Bitcoin which my guess is it's still a few months away from doing that"
Pending
The Ethereum (ETH/BTC) ratio is expected to fall by March, May, or June 2024.
"but in the end in the end I I still think it will fall it might not fall until March or May or June right"
Pending
If the recent high is a mid-cycle top for Bitcoin, the market will likely make another attempt to surpass it, possibly driven by the Bitcoin halving narrative.
"if it is the midcycle top I have a feeling the market will give it another go just to see if it is right you know just to make sure so the market market participants might say well you know there's the having and and they're going to see one last time if that's the top or if they can if they can take that out"
Pending
If Bitcoin experiences another large upside move (similar to 2016), it would likely cause the Ethereum (ETH/BTC) pair to break down.
"If Bitcoin were to get another large move to the upside like it did LA in uh 2016 then I think this would probably be enough to break ether down against Bitcoin if it has not already broken down against Bitcoin"
Pending
Altcoins are expected to break down against Bitcoin.
"one thing that has not yet happened that I still think needs to happen is that alts need to break down against Bitcoin"
Pending
Altcoins (excluding ETH) are expected to durably break down against Bitcoin in April 2024, coinciding with the Bitcoin halving and potentially a month before the first rate cut (if in May 2024).
"from when it set this first low right here it didn't durably break down for about 41 weeks 41 weeks after this low right there puts you in April which coincidentally is the month of the having which by the way is coincidentally the same the month before the First Rate cut if it doesn't come in March right now Market thinks First Rate cut comes in May"
Pending
Altcoins (excluding ETH) are expected to break down against Bitcoin in the first half of 2024.
"I still think alts need to break down against Bitcoin but they haven't broken down yet right they haven't but I think that is is something that will happen in the first half of this year"
Pending
For altcoins (excluding ETH) to break down, 'Total 3 minus USDT to Bitcoin' needs to close below 40% on a weekly basis. For Ethereum, ETH/BTC needs to close below 0.049 on a weekly basis.
"We need to see total 3 minus USD divided by Bitcoin go below 40% and get weekly closes below 40% just like I think ether Bitcoin needs to drop below 049 and get weekly closes below that"
Pending
If Bitcoin sets a new local high or sweeps the previous high (around 49k), it is expected to occur in March, April, or May 2024 at the latest.
"if we do put in a new local high or we sweep the high kind of like we did over here if we do something like that history shows it would probably happen in in March or April right in in potentially March or April maybe May at the latest"
Pending
Ethereum (ETH/BTC) is predicted to break down first, followed by Ethereum (ETH/USD) losing its trend line support, likely within the next few months (by mid-2024).
"what that would imply is that ether Bitcoin will break down first and then after ether Bitcoin breaks down ether USD will probably lose this trend line potentially you know sometime in the next few months or so"
Pending
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is expected to retest its previous low, dropping back below $1,000 at some point.
"at some point I think we're I think ethereum will test the Integrity of that low back down below $1,000"
Pending
If Bitcoin bounces to retest its recent high (around 49k), it is likely to occur in the February or March 2024 timeframe.
"if if Bitcoin is going to get a bounce to test whether that's the high or not that's when it's probably going to happen right sometime February or March time frame"
Pending
If USDT dominance drops to 4% (hitting its lower trend line), a crypto market crash is expected to ensue, leading to a rotation out of risk assets into stablecoins.
"if usdt dominance were to go down to 4% that would probably be a huge warning signal to the market... to me it would suggest that there's a a crash that's about to ensue as they we've always we've always had crashes after we hit this trend line"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is expected to experience a large move to the upside relatively soon.
"dominance is potentially sort of in this range right here and we're going to get a a large move to the upside relatively soon"
Pending
Over the next few months (by mid-2024), Bitcoin is expected to 'chop up' the altcoin market (i.e., altcoins will perform poorly against Bitcoin).
"my view on the market is this I think that over the next few months Bitcoin is going to chop the altcoin market up"
Pending
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is expected to experience a bounce at some point.
"but at some point I think there will be a Bitcoin bounce on on its USD pair"
Pending
When Bitcoin (BTC/USD) bounces, altcoins (including Ethereum) are expected to finally break down against Bitcoin (on their BTC pairs).
"when it bounces that's where I think alts finally break down on their Bitcoin P that's where I think ether breaks down on its Bitcoin pair when Bitcoin bounces"
Pending
Once Ethereum (ETH/USD) breaks its trend line, it is expected to drop straight back down to the bottom part of its range.
"I think it's basically just straight straight back down to the bottom part of the range right straight back down whenever that breaks"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to 'chop up' the altcoin market over the next few months. Regardless of Bitcoin's specific price action, the Ethereum (ETH/BTC) pair will break down as Bitcoin dominance reaches 56%.
"Bitcoin chops up the altcoin market for the next few months it could Bounce It could it could put in a slightly lower High um it could even take out the prior high if it wants to repeat 2021 but regardless of how high it goes ether Bitcoin breaks down as Bitcoin dominance hits 56%"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is expected to reach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is 60%.
"I think that Bitcoin dominance can still go to the 618 which is 60%"
Pending
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to have one larger pullback to prior lows over the next approximately three months (by March 2024), before moving higher.
"we get one larger pullback by the Dollar near these prior lows and then from there it goes up which funny enough if you look at the time frame on this low here to the next low it was about about 3 months or so here December"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is expected to break upwards and the Ethereum (ETH/BTC) pair is expected to break downwards around the March, April, or May 2024 timeframe.
"it all seems to be kind of like no matter how you look at it it seems like a lot of things sort of line up around that March April May time frame you know where where dominance is probably going to break up um ether Bitcoin will probably break down you know sort of in that in that same time frame"
Pending
If Bitcoin drops to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and then bounces, failing to break above $42,000 would strongly suggest that the current high (around 49k) is a local high for a potentially long time.
"if we hit the 382 and if we get a bounce 42k is going to be the big level that it has to get by 42k 42k is where it was rejected at back in August 2019 after it got a bounce so what I'm saying is that if we do get this bounce and we go back back up and we put in and we go to 42k if we cannot get past 42k then it strongly suggests that this is the local high for potentially a long time"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to revisit its lower price range (around $29k) at some point, linked to the uninversion of the yield curve and the Fed's pivot, which historically is not good for risk assets like crypto.
"I think at some point we'll probably revisit this range was my guess because at some point we need to get the inversion of the yield curve at some point the fed's going to Pivot and normally that's not a good thing for risk assets especially crypto especially coming out of yield curve inversion"
Pending
If Bitcoin does not bounce from its current level (around 36-37k), the next probable bounce levels are the low $30,000s, or $28,000 (where the 100-week SMA is located).
"if there's not a bounce there your next bet for a bounce is probably going to be in the low 30s and if not there then your next bet is going to be at 28k which is where the 100 we SMA is"
Pending
The economy is predicted to start slowing down in May or June 2024, aligning with historical patterns after yield curve inversion.
"what happens when it's June you know May or June and we're in the dog days of summer and all these narratives that people have been chasing forever there's not really another great narrative to Chase and and then the economy is is starting to slow down in line with historical time frames that it has taken the economy to slow down after yield curve inversion"
Pending
Later in 2024, the market narrative is expected to shift from current topics (e.g., ETFs, halving) to concerns about the Federal Reserve's impact and potential economic damage.
"but I think later this year the narratives are going to change from all of that stuff that people are worried about right now to oh crap how much damage should the Federal Reserve do"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to reach 56% and potentially 60% by continuing to wash out altcoins during sporadic Bitcoin rallies.
"I don't know how it's going to play out but if it did play out it means bit Bitcoin continues to wash out these altcoins on sporadic Bitcoin rallies until we hit 56% dominance... I think that Bitcoin dominance can still go to the 618 which is 60%."
Pending
The Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC) is predicted to durably break down with a weekly close below 0.049, likely in March, May, or June 2024, when Bitcoin dominance hits 56%.
"56% dominance that I think is the level where e Bitcoin durably breaks support on the weekly time frame at at 56% dominance... what I mean by durably breaking down is I mean a weekly close below 049 a weekly close below it... my guess is it's still a few months away from doing that... it might not fall until March or May or June right."
Pending
Ethereum (ETH/USD) is predicted to experience a severe correction of around 70% (putting it below $1,000 to the lower regression band) sometime in mid-2024, following the breakdown of the ETH/BTC ratio.
"if ether breaks down against Bitcoin history would suggest that sometime after that a large correction could occur it could be a severe correction not just a 20 to 30% correction... a 70% correction from the current prices would basically put it at the lower part of the regression ban... after ether Bitcoin breaks down ether USD will probably lose this trend line potentially you know sometime in the next few months or so... I think ethereum will test the Integrity of that low back down below $1,000."
Pending
Over the next few months (from January 2024, likely March-May/June), Bitcoin will chop up the altcoin market, causing altcoin/Bitcoin pairs (including total 3 minus USDT/Bitcoin) to drop, with total 3 minus USDT/Bitcoin seeing weekly closes below 40%.
"one thing that has not yet happened that I still think needs to happen is that alts need to break down against Bitcoin... I think all Bitcoin pairs will drop we need to see total 3 minus USD divided by Bitcoin go below 40% and get weekly closes below 40%... I think that over the next few months Bitcoin is going to chop the altcoin market up."
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to drop to the 382 Fibonacci retracement level (around the bull market support band). If it bounces, 42k will be major resistance; failing to pass it suggests a long-term local high. If 42k is surpassed, it could sweep prior highs or reach 52k by March/April 2024. If no bounce occurs from current levels, potential bounce targets are in the low 30s or 28k (100-week SMA).
"if this drops here in the next week or so it's hitting the 382... if we hit the 382 and if we get a bounce 42k is going to be the big level that it has to get by... if we cannot get past 42k then it strongly suggests that this is the local high for potentially a long time... if we bounce this would you know by by March or April it would correspond to like 52[k]... if we don't bounce then 29k is what's going to come into play... your next bet for a bounce is probably going to be in the low 30s and if not there then your next bet is going to be at 28k which is where the 100 we SMA is."
Pending
If USDT dominance falls to 4%, it will be a major warning signal, leading to a rotation out of crypto into stablecoins and a massive crash in the crypto market.
"if usdt dominance were to go down to 4% that would probably be a huge warning signal to the market... you then get a rotation out of crypto or out of risk assets into the stable coins and you get a massive crash in crypto when that happens."
Pending
Even if Bitcoin experiences a 72% drop from its mid-cycle top, leading to a new low, it is predicted to eventually recover when the Federal Reserve pivots to looser monetary policy.
"72% from the midcycle top 72% drop would even put Bitcoin at a new low right even if it did that... I still think Bitcoin would eventually recover... I think the FED will pivot we will go back to loer monetary policy and then Bitcoin will rise again."
Pending
The yield curve (2-year and 10-year spread) is predicted to become uninverted in 2024, which is expected to signal economic weakness.
"at some point I imagine it will become uninverted uh this year [2024]... normally that signals weakness if and when that happens."
Pending
The unemployment rate is predicted to increase soon, following the aggressive drop in new hires ('highers').
"if it's going up it's only a matter of time before the unemployment rate starts to go up and it's been going up up pretty aggressively right hes has been dropping Like a Rock So it seems like it's just a matter of time."
Pending