Published: 2024-01-10
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin is expected to put in a local top in February if the first Fed rate cut occurs in March, mirroring past cycle behavior.
"if it comes in March then that and it were to play out in a similar manner as over here then you know the expectation could be that Bitcoin puts in some type of local top a month before that right so like in February"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to put in a local top in April (around the halving) if the first Fed rate cut is delayed until May, mirroring past cycle behavior.
"if on the other hand the First Rate cut doesn't come until say May... then a month before that would be April which of course is is the the month in which the Bitcoin having will occur"
Pending
If Bitcoin's price closes below its 8-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), it will likely drop to the bull market support band.
"if we were to go below the 8we SMA which again we're not there yet but if we were to go below it historically that means at least in recent years when you go below 8 we you tend to then go to the bull market sport ban"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to reach the low $50,000 range if the total crypto market cap rises to $1.9 trillion, hitting the midpoint of its long-term trend channel.
"if Bitcoin were to see a rise up to you know let's say 15% that puts it in the low 50k range... the low 50k range assuming that it can lift the rest of the asset class up commensurate with itself the low 50k range would put total market cap at sort of the midpoint of this channel which... would be about 1.9 trillion or so"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to reach the upper band of the logarithmic regression rainbow, which is currently just below $49,000 and is an increasing value over time.
"the band up here is is currently just below 49k... about you know four um I guess a little less than $4,000 above where we currently are but again it's also an increase increasing value right like the the regression bands are are moving higher as a function of time and so that would be a level uh to keep in mind"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to reach approximately $48,500, which is the 618 Fibonacci retracement level measured from the second peak of the previous cycle.
"the 618 currently is around 48 and a half"
Pending
Based on the previous cycle's behavior, Bitcoin could rise 15% above its bear market's Q1 deadcat bounce high of approximately $47,000, targeting around $54,050.
"the q1 bare Market... sort of the deadcat Bounce from the bare Market year um is right around 47k or so... last cycle it it actually went Above It By about you know 15% or so there's that 15% again"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to experience a significant pullback to its bull market support band within the next couple of weeks (from January 2024), mirroring past short-term bubble risk behavior.
"if it plays out like it did you know about 10 months ago or so then it would imply you know within the next couple of weeks or so getting a a larger pullback to that bull market support ban"
Pending
A Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reading in the 90s (indicating extreme greed) would serve as a risk-off signal.
"that might be another riskof signal if it arrives would be a a a fear and greed print of in the 90s right in the 90s would be I I I think a a riskof signal"
Pending
A weekly close of the ETH/BTC valuation below its June 2022 low would signal a risk-off environment for the crypto market.
"if we get a weekly close below the June 2022 low then that at least in my view would imply a risk off signal"
Pending
The ETH/BTC valuation is predicted to eventually break down rather than rise.
"I've been bearish on ether Bitcoin since the merge I do think it's more likely to eventually break down than up"
Pending
If the first Fed rate cut occurs in March 2024, Bitcoin is expected to put in a local top in February 2024, similar to the previous cycle.
"if it comes in March then that and it were to play out in a similar manner as over here then you know the expectation could be that Bitcoin puts in some type of local top a month before that right so like in February"
Pending
If the first Fed rate cut is delayed until May 2024, Bitcoin could put in a local top in April 2024, which is the month of the Bitcoin halving.
"if on the other hand the First Rate cut doesn't come until say May... then a month before that would be April which of course is is the the month in which the Bitcoin having will occur"
Pending
If Bitcoin's price drops below the 8-week SMA, it is historically likely to then fall to the bull market support band.
"if we were to go below the 8we SMA... when you go below 8 we you tend to then go to the the bull market sport ban"
Pending
As long as Bitcoin remains above $42,000 (its 8-week SMA at the time), the market will not be considered 'risk-off'.
"so long as Bitcoin stays above 42k then we're still above the 8we and it's not clearly riskof Dynamics just yet"
Pending
If Bitcoin rises into the low $50k range and lifts the total crypto market cap commensurately, the total market cap would reach the midpoint of its historical channel (around $1.9 trillion).
"the low 50k range assuming that it can lift the rest of the asset class up commensurate with itself the low 50k range would put total market cap at sort of the midpoint of this channel"
Pending
For Bitcoin's one-year ROI to continue increasing, its price would need to rise rapidly; otherwise, the one-year ROI will top out due to the strong rally in January 2023 dropping out of the calculation window.
"if the one-year Roi is going to go up from here then the Bitcoin the price of Bitcoin would have to go up uh quicker otherwise the running oneye Roi will Top out"
Pending
If Bitcoin experiences an immediate strong upside acceleration (e.g., due to spot ETF approval), it may need to cool down as the halving approaches.
"if Bitcoin were to accelerate to the upside immediately... then it might need to cool down closer to the having"
Pending
If Bitcoin trends sideways for a couple of months, it is likely to make a significant move upwards leading into the halving event.
"if on the other hand it doesn't do that and it just kind of Trends sideways for a couple months then you could make the case that it'll make that move going into the having"
Pending
Bitcoin could experience a larger pullback to its bull market support band before bouncing.
"there could be a you know a larger pullback back to the bullmark support band to check in um before getting a bounce there"
Pending
If current Bitcoin price action mirrors that of March 2023, it would imply a larger pullback to the bull market support band within the next couple of weeks (from January 10, 2024).
"if it plays out like it did you know about 10 months ago or so then it would imply you know within the next couple of weeks or so getting a a larger pullback to that bull market support pan"
Pending
If the first Fed rate cut occurs in March 2024, Bitcoin's weekly RSI may break down in February 2024.
"if the First Rate cut arrives in March then perhaps this the weekly RSI will break down in February"
Pending
If the first Fed rate cut is delayed until May 2024, Bitcoin's weekly RSI may not fall back down until around the time of the halving (April 2024).
"if the first rate does not arrive until May... then perhaps it'll play out something like that where it doesn't the weekly RSI doesn't sort of fall back down until we get to right around the time of having"
Pending
A Fear & Greed Index reading in the 90s (extreme greed) for Bitcoin would indicate a 'risk-off' signal.
"that might be another riskof signal if it arrives would be a a a fear and greed print of in the 90s right in the 90s would be I I I think a a riskof signal"
Pending
A weekly close of the ETH/BTC pair below its June 2022 low would imply a 'risk-off' signal for the altcoin market.
"if we get a weekly close below the June 2022 low then that at least in my view would imply a risk off signal"
Pending
The ETH/BTC valuation is more likely to eventually break down rather than go up.
"I do think it's more likely to eventually break down than up"
Pending