ilmscore | Jobs Report

Jobs Report

Published: 2024-01-06
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 7
Prediction
Topic
Status
The number of new entrants to the labor force will continue to increase as the economic cycle progresses, driven by people feeling compelled to find jobs.
"new entrance to the labor force which I think will be an ongoing story because I think there's been a lot of people that have been out of work or they haven't been working ... but the longer you know the the further into the cycle we get the more likely those people will will feel like they have to go get a job"
Labor Market
Pending
If the ISM services employment report (for January 2024 data, released in early February 2024) remains at or drops below 43.3, a Federal Reserve rate cut in March 2024 is probable.
"if it [ISM services employment] comes in at 43 again or lower and if it does you probably will get a rate cut in March"
Federal Reserve Policy
Pending
The growth in the employment level (measured by the 3-month SMA of quarter-over-quarter change) is likely to continue declining until monetary policy becomes looser.
"honestly it probably will continue to fall until we get back to looser monetary policy"
Labor Market
Pending
The number of total temporary help services employees is likely to continue decreasing.
"there's a good chance this [total temporary help services employees] is just going to continue to drop"
Labor Market
Pending
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers (currently 1.4) is expected to decrease in the coming months, likely reaching the pre-pandemic high of around 1.25 within a few months.
"the job openings divided by the unemployment level... that is is is something that will likely come down in the months ahead ... we'll likely get there [pre-pandemic high of 1.25] within a few months"
Labor Market
Pending
If ISM services employment data remains at or below 43, the Federal Reserve will likely implement a rate cut in March [2024].
"if it does [ISM services employment comes in at 43 again or lower] you probably will get a rate cut in March"
Monetary Policy
Pending
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers (JOLTS ratio) is expected to decrease in the coming months, reaching approximately 1.25 (its pre-pandemic high) within a few months [by mid-2024].
"job openings divided by the unemployment level... will likely come down in the months ahead... we'll likely get there [the pre-pandemic high around 1.25] within a few months"
Labor Market
Pending