Published: 2024-01-01
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin dominance was predicted to increase throughout 2023 as capital rotates from the altcoin market to Bitcoin.
"one of the things that we mentioned going into 2023 is that the Bitcoin dominance will likely go up for the entire year as capital rotates from the altcoin market to bitcoin in"
Pending
If the market continues to climb for the next couple of weeks (early January 2024), it could signal a potential risk-off period and a cool-off period later in Q1 2024.
"if the market continues to climb for the next couple of weeks then it could signal a potential risk off period as we get further out into the first quarter of 2024 as the market will likely need to at least go through some type of cool off period"
Pending
If Bitcoin grinds higher (early January 2024), it could potentially lead to a larger pullback later in Q1 2024.
"if Bitcoin does grind higher then it would potentially set us off for a larger pullback later in the first quarter"
Pending
If a Bitcoin spot ETF is rejected (early 2024), the market would likely sell off in the short term.
"if the spot ETF is rejected then I imagine that would be a very big surprise to the market and and you know the market would likely sell off in the short term if if news came out that the spot ETF were rejected"
Pending
Over the next two weeks (from January 1, 2024), as Bitcoin spot ETF news breaks, Bitcoin might rally to a trend line (potentially marking a mid-cycle top), and this move would cause the Ethereum/Bitcoin valuation to break down from its trend line.
"if there is some type of Bitcoin move over the next two weeks as we get into the spot ETF news finally breaking and if Bitcoin were to break up and go to sort of the trend line here which might Mark a midcycle top and if it breaks ether Bitcoin down off of this this trend line which it also broke over here"
Pending
For the entirety of 2023, the crypto total market cap was predicted to remain below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line but above the lower green regression trend line.
"this was a prediction that I made in early 2023 was that for the entire year we will spend the entire year below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line the red line but above the lower green regression trend line"
Pending
By mid-2024, the lower regression band of the crypto total market cap will have reached the same level as the market cap in late 2022.
"by the time we reach approximately halfway through the year the lower regression band will have met where we previously were in late 2022 in terms of where that lower regression band is"
Pending
The crypto market might repeat the last cycle's pattern, leading to a mid-cycle top and a subsequent cool-off period around the time of the first interest rate cut.
"I do wonder if we are at all repeating what we saw last cycle with a potential cool off period sometime after putting in this midcycle top which again might correspond to approximately the first interest rate cut"
Pending
The total crypto market cap's lower trend line will reach the bottom of its channel by Q3 2024, but this trend line will remain lower than the prior lows from late 2022 until that time.
"where we previously were finds the bottom of this channel by Q3 of this year by the third quarter of this year but you'll also notice that the trend line here would still be lower than the prior lows up until about that time"
Pending
By mid-2024, the logarithmic regression trend line for the total crypto market cap will be above the prior lows from late 2022.
"it would take until about halfway through the year for this logarithmic aggression trend line to be above the prior lows from late 2022"
Pending
The market might see a mid-cycle top around the time of initial rate cuts, followed by an explosive move upwards when the last rate cut occurs and real Quantitative Easing (QE) returns.
"I do wonder if if there is a risk if of the market playing out something like that where you get some type of midcycle top around the time that rate Cuts arrive and then by the time that you get to the last rate cut and real QE coming back in perhaps that's where we get another explosive move back up to the upside"
Pending
If the crypto total market cap reaches the top of its parallel channel by April 2025 (when Bitcoin topped out last cycle), it would be approximately $10 trillion.
"if you then come back up to the top of the channel by 2025 by the way let's just say April of 2025 which is when Bitcoin topped out last cycle that actually puts you at 10 trillion at at approximately $10 trillion"
Pending
Over the next 6 months (from January 2024), if the Fed does not cut aggressively, there is a good chance that the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker will drop below 1.
"over the next 6 months if the FED does not cut aggressively there's a good chance that this metric could continue to drop to the point where there's no longer enough job openings for every unemployed worker"
Pending
The Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates in 2024 to get ahead of the lagged effects from prior rate hikes.
"I think that they do need to cut rates in 2024 in order to get fully ahead of all the lag effects from all the interest rate hikes"
Pending
If a Bitcoin spot ETF is accepted (early 2024), the market might enter a process of putting in a mid-cycle top.
"if the spot ETF were accepted uh then then perhaps you you go into this process of of putting in a a midcycle top"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is likely to implement interest rate cuts within the next two to four months (from January 2024).
"within the next two to three month two to four months we're probably going to get rate Cuts"
Pending
Quantitative Easing (QE) would likely need to return.
"I think QE would likely need to come back"
Pending
The yield curve will un-invert at some point in 2024, leading to negative economic consequences that the market will have to deal with.
"I'm still thinking that there's is going to be a period at some point likely this year where the yield curve un inverts and we have to deal with the Fallout of that"
Pending
If the market responds negatively to interest rate cuts, it will likely lead to quantitative easing (QE), which in turn will bring speculators back to the cryptoverse.
"if the market responds negatively then that would likely bring back quantitative easing and if quantitative easing comes back then that would likely bring back these speculators back to the cryptoverse"
Pending
If the current cycle emulates the 2015 cycle, the total crypto market cap would durably get back above its lower regression band by early 2025; if it emulates the 2016 cycle, this would occur by early 2026.
"if this cycle were to emulate that two and a half years later for this cycle would correspond to basically the the the beginning of 2025 to durably get back above it if it were to play out like the 2016 cycle which is still another year away"
Pending
If the total crypto market cap surpasses $2 trillion, it will deviate from the historical pattern of previous cycles where it hit a mid-channel peak before a larger pullback.
"if the total market cap blasts past two trillion then it's it's deviating from what happened over here"
Pending
The total market cap of crypto will eventually reach $10 trillion, likely within the next few years.
"I still do think that the market cap of crypto will eventually go to 10 trillion uh probably within the next few years"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance was predicted to increase throughout 2023 due to capital rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin.
"one of the things that we mentioned going into 2023 is that the Bitcoin dominance will likely go up for the entire year as capital rotates from the altcoin market to bitcoin"
Pending
The ETH/BTC valuation was predicted to durably break below a historical trend line around the week of January 15, 2024, mirroring a previous cycle's 83-week period.
"if you take a a a time like a a range here from this low here and you were to go out say 80 83 weeks it would put you the week of January 15th the week of January 15th"
Pending
For the entirety of 2023, the total crypto market cap was predicted to remain below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line but above the lower green regression trend line.
"this was a prediction that I made in early 2023 was that for the entire year we will spend the entire year below the fair value logarithmic regression trend line the red line but above the lower green regression trend line"
Pending
The crypto market might experience a midcycle top and a subsequent cool-off period around the time of the first interest rate cut, which was anticipated by the market for March 2024.
"the potential not guaranteed but the potential midcycle top occurs at the midpoint which is where it occurred last cycle as well which by the way is also where interest rates started to go back down... The market is currently suspecting that the First Rate cut might might arrive by March... I do wonder if we are at all repeating what we saw last cycle with a potential cool off period sometime after putting in this midcycle top which again might correspond to approximately the first interest rate cut"
Pending
The total crypto market cap could reach $10 trillion by April 2025, aligning with a potential Bitcoin cycle top. The author states it's not a deterministic prediction but a possibility.
"if you then come back up to the top of the channel by 2025 by the way let's just say April of 2025 which is when Bitcoin topped out last cycle that actually puts you at 10 trillion at at approximately $10 trillion. Now again I don't know if we're going to make it to 10 trillion this cycle or not I don't want to go into it deterministic um I I think there's a chance that we could"
Pending
The total crypto market cap was predicted to reach approximately $2 trillion by the first week of February 2024.
"by February the first week of February it would correspond to approximately $2 trillion"
Pending