Predictions from this Video

Total: 5
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 5
Prediction
Topic
Status
The seizure of Russian assets (estimated $6 billion in the US) is likely to happen, which will create a risk premium for US bonds and similar US dollar assets, causing their prices to drop and yields to rise, leading investors to move to gold. This event is expected to occur in the near future, as US politicians passed a bill last month giving the treasury authority to do this.
"Although this seizure hasn't happened yet it's likely that it will happen due to its popularity with Democrats and the US government's own geopolitical imperatives there's just one problem and that's that this will be an even bigger watershed moment for anyone holding us bonds or indeed other US dollar assets as many macro analysts have pointed out seizing Russia's assets and sending them to Ukraine or wherever else would likely create a risk premium for us bonds and similar assets put differently it will likely cause their prices to drop and yields to rise as investors Run for the hills or rather to Gold"
Russian assets seizure
Pending
The US Treasury's bond buyback program, starting at the end of May 2024, is expected to cause bond market volatility.
"It seems the treasury is preparing for this because it recently announced its first Bond buyback program in over 20 years Yes you heard that right the US government is going to buy back its own debt these BuyBacks will start at the end of this month so that's presumably when we'll get bond market volatility"
US Bond Market Volatility
Pending
The US Treasury has an extra $400 billion in its Treasury General Account (TGA) that will eventually find its way into the markets. This money is likely to be spent before the US election in November 2024 to boost the economy and reduce recession risk.
"The key takeaway here is that the treasury has $400 billion in its back pocket that will eventually find its way into the markets this money will likely be spent before the election to boost the economy and reduce the risk of a recession Janet's gift to Biden"
Liquidity in markets
Pending
Market liquidity is likely to be neutral to negative until June 2024 because the Fed is not lowering short-term rates and its balance sheet changes won't start until June, and Treasury bond buybacks won't begin until late May 2024. This could lead to a few weeks of sluggish price action.
"In the short term However the fact that the FED isn't lowering short-term rates and won't begin its balance sheet Shenanigans until June means that liquidity will likely be neutral to negative until then and don't forget that the treasury's bond BuyBacks won't begin until later this month either the consequence could be a few weeks of sluggish price action and some would say that we're already seeing this"
Market Liquidity (Short-term)
Pending
The crypto market, which has been falling behind stocks, is expected to start catching up when overall liquidity improves, potentially in late July or August 2024, as crypto typically lags liquidity by about 6 weeks.
"This though should change as overall liquidity improves according to macro analyst Michael how crypto lags liquidity by about 6 weeks which means that it may not start to catch up until sometime in Late July or even August"
Crypto market performance
Pending