Arthur Hayes & Raoul Pal: Risks, Degen Plays, EOY Predictions!!
Published: 2024-06-09
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-06-09
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
DogeCoin is predicted to receive an ETF by the end of the current crypto cycle.
"I think Doge gets an ETF before the end of the cycle."
Pending
Aptos is predicted to overtake Solana in the Layer 1 blockchain competition within this cycle.
"aptose flips Solana in the layer Run game"
Pending
DogeCoin is predicted to achieve ETF status by the end of the current crypto cycle.
"I think Dogecoin is gonna get get an ETF by the end of the cycle"
Pending
Cardano may not retain its top 10 market cap position by the end of the current market cycle.
"so cardano is something that could potentially not be in the top 10 at the end of this Market cycle"
Pending
Aptos is predicted to surpass Solana as the second-largest Layer 1 blockchain within this cycle.
"aptose flips Solana in the layer Run game"
Pending
More detailed information and predictions regarding Aptos's potential to overtake Solana will be provided in September.
"and I'll put more meat on that probably in September of this year"
Pending
Athena is expected to have a significant and growing impact on the crypto ecosystem.
"I think that that is probably our best um thing that we've done as a front uh this cycle and I think that we're only getting started in terms of the impact that Athena is going to have on the ecosystem"
Pending
The crypto market cap is projected to grow from its current $2.5-3 trillion to $10-15 trillion by the end of 2032.
"my view is this space goes from Two and a half three trillion now by the end of the cycle it's 10 to 15 trillion by the end of let's say 2032"
Pending
An ambitious projection of $100 trillion in wealth accumulation within the crypto space by 2032.
"it's $100 trillion by 2032"
Pending
The market is entering the 'banana zone', a period characterized by increased liquidity and vertical price movements for crypto.
"we're coming into the banana Zone"
Pending
Similar to the last cycle where Solana, Avalanche, Luna, and Matic performed exceptionally well, new Layer 1 projects are expected to see significant gains during the upcoming 'banana zone'.
"we're going to see that repeat who's it going to be what's it going to be I don't know yet but that's a game to be had in the banana Zone"
Pending
Meme coins are expected to remain a persistent and potentially grow crazier in the crypto market, especially with increased money printing.
"I know that Meme coins are here to stay and are going to get even crazier as there's more money printed"
Pending
Regardless of the US election outcome, the continuation of money printing by both parties suggests that current market performers like big-cap tech and crypto will continue to do well.
"they're both printing money and therefore anything that was working today whether it's big cap Tech or crypto is going to work after the election"
Pending
The largest government expenditures in the US, beyond healthcare and interest, are veterans' payments and defense spending (war).
"the biggest expenditures of the US government apart from uh healthc care interest expense it's veterans payments and defense so it's War"
Pending
The US Treasury Department is asserted to be the primary driver of financial policy, more so than the Federal Reserve.
"the treasury Department runs a show and they always have run the show"
Pending
Global efforts to build semiconductor plants (including three in the US, one in Germany, and one in Japan) within the next 4-5 years will lead to widespread access to advanced technology.
"The US is building three Taiwan semi plants Germany's building one Japan's building one um they're probably all built within the next four to five years then everybody's got the technology that can be shared"
Pending
A potential agreement between the US and China might involve China gaining control over Taiwan and its semiconductor industry.
"I believe that if they say to China listen let's organize something here you can have Taiwan and Taiwan semi"
Pending
There's a possibility that Russia may negotiate a resolution to the Ukraine conflict by not expanding its territory, signaling a potential end to the conflict.
"we're prepared to negotiate not expanding territory in Ukraine and we'll call it a day"
Pending
If major geopolitical risks are resolved, it could trigger a significant 'super bubble' in the market.
"if that's the case that's going to ignite a Super Bubble"
Pending
A significant risk to the crypto market is a major custodian being hacked and losing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in crypto assets.
"a major crypto iian gets hacked and they lose you know 50 hundred billion dollars with a crypto"
Pending
Major US exchanges and their clearing houses are insufficiently capitalized to handle potential market shocks, especially with volatile assets like Bitcoin.
"all the major exchanges in the US and their Clearing Houses they are woefully undercapitalized"
Pending
The introduction of zero-day options on Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs could lead to massive losses for option writers (dealers) if the underlying asset experiences a rapid, significant price spike, potentially causing billions in losses.
"if you put a Bitcoin or an ethereum ETF um zero day options on and Bitcoin spikes you know 50% a day because whatever I don't know something happens and all these guys and obviously the retail is going to be long long volatility the dealers are selling it to them at very expensive prices but on this particular day Market gaps up and you get scorched on your gamma and your Vega and all of a sudden CAD is down $30 billion"
Pending
The ETH/BTC cross is becoming interesting as ETH enters a 'hate zone,' and the cross is starting to break higher, signaling the potential beginning of altcoin season.
"the eth Bitcoin cross you know eth got into the total hate Zone which always gets interesting to me um and then the eth Bitcoin cross starts breaking higher"
Pending
A breakout in the ETH/BTC cross, even with potential ETF delays, is expected to signal the start of altcoin season, recycling capital up the risk curve and leading into the 'banana zone'.
"if it breaks bit higher than here we can see why that will happen now because the ETF yeah it's been delayed a bit but we saw it with Bitcoin the Run starts well before the launch so that then recycles Capital up the risk curve and that that's banana zone"
Pending
The Move protocol is identified as a significant upcoming narrative in the crypto space.
"move is something the move protocol I think that's a big narrative to come"
Pending
The competition among Layer 1 blockchains, including Solana and Sui, is highlighted as particularly interesting due to their speed and technical capabilities.
"the future of ler on so ra you're like salana sui is also a really interesting one when it comes to speed and techn technicalities"
Pending
The Layer 1 sector is expected to be a highly profitable area within the 'banana zone,' similar to its performance in previous cycles.
"it's a really profitable part of the banana zone is this next trade that that trade you know that was enormous money-making trade last time and the cycle before um so it will be again this time"
Pending