5 Hidden Bitcoin Clues Traders Are Watching Right Now
Published: 2024-08-15
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-15
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The speaker expresses confidence in Bitcoin reaching $130,000 by 2025.
"I'm confident it will reach $130,000 by 2025."
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Bitcoin's price has historically shown local tops when the fear and greed index indicates extreme greed (above 75) and local bottoms when it indicates extreme fear (below 25).
"you can see just how closely they tend to follow each other over the past 6 months local tops have been marked at periods where the extreme greed metric was flashing and similarly local bot s when the indicator was uh in the pardon my French"
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The premium over assets under management (AUM) for the Grayscale SOL Trust is near all-time highs.
"the grayscale Soul trust and you can see what it looks like right over here it's near all-time highs"
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Coinshares provides weekly data on combined flows into ETPs and ETFs holding various crypto assets, broken down by region and asset, showing week-on-week changes.
"those are just the ETFs though we mustn't forget that there are still a number of etps and ETFs based not only in other countries but also holding other assets one of the best firms that I know that tracks this data is coin shares and and every week they share the combined flows into all of these funds and you can view it for free on their website they break it down by region and asset as you can see over here and they also keep track of the week on week changes"
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CoinShares provides weekly data on combined flows into various crypto ETPs and ETFs, broken down by region and asset, showing week-on-week changes.
"those are just the ETFs though we mustn't forget that there are still a number of etps and ETFs based not only in other countries but also holding other assets one of the best firms that I know that tracks this data is coin shares and and every week they share the combined flows into all of these funds and you can view it for free on their website they break it down by region and asset as you can see over here and they also keep track of the week on week changes"
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In March, the crypto market was experiencing high activity or 'red hot' conditions.
"back in March things were red hot bro crypto podcast"
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The current state of the crypto markets is described as neutral.
"and right now markets are pretty neutral"
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Despite increasing prices, funding rates are below neutral, indicating that market participants are not eager to open long positions.
"currently although the price has been increasing funding rates have still been sub neutral I.E Market participants aren't keen on opening long positions"
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A decline in open interest alongside an increase in price can signal a potential bearish market turn.
"when open interest is declining and at the same time price is going up it can be seen as a generally bearish indicator of a potential Market turn"
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A decrease in both price and open interest might indicate a bullish trend.
"and on the flip side when the price is going down and open interest is going down potentially a bullish indicator"
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When open interest is increasing and the price is also rising, it is generally considered a bullish market signal.
"if it is going up and the price is increasing as well that's generally seen as a bullish sign"
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An increase in open interest signifies that more participants are opening new futures contracts, both long and short.
"if open interest is increasing this just means that more people are open in New Futures contracts both long and short"
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High funding rates can indicate a bullish market but also a potential overheating, with peaks in funding rates historically preceding significant deleveraging and liquidation events.
"now while high funding rates could show that the market is bullish they could also be an indication of it being potentially overheated and taking a look at the charts on glass node again you'll see that the peaks in the funding rate preceded massive deleveraging and liquidation events"
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Since early July, option skew has been decreasing, meaning traders were paying more for call options than put options. This coincided with Bitcoin's price rally from $56k to $68k in July.
"since early July option skew has been falling and becoming increasingly negative the Traders were paying more for bullish call exposure than they were for puts what you will also notice is that this has almost exactly coincided with that recovery rally in Bitcoin in July from 56k to about 68k"
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A continued downward trend in option skew suggests increasing bullish sentiment, with traders willing to pay more for call options relative to put options.
"if the ratio continues to Trend lower it means that they are getting even more bullish and are willing to pay even more relative to puts than they were in the past"
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Local market tops have historically occurred when the fear and greed index shows extreme greed, and local bottoms when it shows extreme fear.
"local tops have been marked at periods where the extreme greed metric was flashing and similarly local bot s when the indicator was uh in the pardon my French"
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A quote from Warren Buffett advising to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy, applicable to market sentiment.
"be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy"
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The crypto fear and greed index was created by the website alternative.me.
"the crypto fear and greed index was developed by a website called alternative.me"
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CoinGlass.com is recommended as a preferred platform for viewing open interest data across both regulated and unregulated markets.
"if you are looking for the best places to see this data there are a number of websites that track this across both the onshore regulated and the offshore unregulated my personal favorite is of course coin glass.com"
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The introduction of ETFs has significantly impacted the crypto market, bringing positive surprises and providing more data on shifts in asset interest.
"the introduction of these ETFs has brought with it a complete Paradigm Shift not only have they been a massive surprise to the upside but they have also provided us with a lot more data about the shift in interest in these assets"
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Days with significant ETF inflows typically see an increase in the price of the underlying crypto assets.
"on those days when there are large ETF inflows the price generally tends to increase"
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Large ETF inflows are correlated with price increases in the crypto market.
"you can also see the relationship play out in the markets on those days when there are large ETF inflows the price generally tends to increase"
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Demand for crypto ETFs will drive demand for the underlying crypto assets, as authorized participants must purchase these assets to maintain pricing relationships.
"the demand for holding these ETFs will translate into demand to hold the underlying assets remember that the authorized participants to these funds will have to buy the underline assets to maintain the pricing relationship"
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The premium over AUM for the Grayscale SOL trust is a notable metric to track.
"the premium over assets under management or AUM of the grayscale Soul trust"
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The crypto fear and greed index was created by alternative.me.
"the crypto fear and greed index was developed by a website called alternative.me"
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In the fear and greed index, a higher score (closer to 100) indicates more greed, while a lower score (closer to 0) indicates more fear.
"the higher the number the more greedy and the lower more fearful"
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Local market tops tend to occur when the fear and greed index shows extreme greed, and local bottoms when it shows extreme fear.
"local tops have been marked at periods where the extreme greed metric was flashing and similarly local bot s when the indicator was uh in the pardon my French"
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A cautionary quote suggesting that market irrationality can persist longer than an individual's financial solvency.
"the markets can remain irrational longer then you can remain solvent"
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The crypto market is characterized as being significantly more irrational than most other markets.
"the crypto Market is way more irrational than most"
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Perpetual futures mechanisms were initially popularized in the cryptocurrency space, with exchanges like BitMEX being early adopters.
"Perpetual Futures mechanisms were actually first popularized in crypto on exchanges like bitmex for example"
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