Is This The End For Ethereum? ETH Report You Need To See!
Published: 2024-09-12
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-09-12
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Ethereum's on-chain metrics have reached historic lows.
"meanwhile ethereum chain metrics have sunk to lows almost unprecedented this decade"
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Ethereum transaction fees are below $1 and daily revenue is below $500,000.
"transaction fees are currently sub oneu and ethereum's daily revenue below $500,000"
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Ethereum has been underperforming Bitcoin since the September 2022 merge.
"eth has been falling against Bitcoin ever since the merge in September 2022"
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The launch of Ethereum spot ETFs in July resulted in a significant 'sell the news' event.
"the launch of the spot eth ETFs in July turned into a sell the news event with serious legs"
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Ethereum dropped 44% against the dollar and in ETH/BTC terms within the first two weeks of its ETF launch.
"in the first two weeks of trading alone eth collapsed by 44% against the dollar in eth BTC terms"
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Ethereum ETFs lack a staking mechanism, which is a key selling point for ETH.
"the eth ETFs do not have a staking mechanism"
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Bitcoin ETFs saw $5 billion in net inflows in their first month, while ETH ETFs had net outflows of $500 million.
"by contrast bitcoin's spot ETFs had recorded $5 billion in net inflows one month after their launch"
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Grayscale's Ethereum ETF (ETH E) is experiencing outflows at a faster rate than Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF (GBTC) did post-launch.
"the rate of eth E outflows is significantly faster than outflows from gbtc post launch"
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The Ethereum Foundation plans to sell its ETH holdings incrementally, not all at once.
"the ethereum foundation intended to sell incrementally rather than dumping all 355,000 eth at once"
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Ethereum's technology is a serious constraint on its ability to compete with newer, more performant blockchains.
"ethereum's ability to keep up with the more performant competition is seriously constrained by its Tech"
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The crypto market is predicted to rally strongly this year or next, and Ethereum will also experience a significant price increase.
"whether it's this year or next crypto will rally a hard again and eth will too"
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Market sentiment surrounding Ethereum is extremely negative.
"sentiment around ethereum is Gastly"
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Ethereum faces competition from Solana and even newer 'Solana killers' that are faster and cheaper.
"we have had a slick quick and cheap ethereum killer in salana for 4 and a half years now and salana has been out for so long we even have multiple Slicker quicker and cheaper salana killers"
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Grayscale's Ethereum ETF (ETH E) has performed similarly to, but worse than, Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF (GBTC).
"eth e has mimicked the performance of gbtc only worse"
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Non-grayscale Ethereum ETFs collectively saw $2.1 billion in inflows during their first month of trading.
"the non-grayscale ETFs added $2.1 billion worth of Assets in their first month"
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Grayscale's Ethereum ETF (ETH E) experienced outflows totaling $2.5 billion.
"eth e outflows reached $2.5 billion"
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Ethereum has been performing poorly for an extended period, as evidenced by the ETH/BTC chart.
"eth has been suffering for a long time now and you only need to look at the eth BTC chart to see this"
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The Ethereum Foundation transferred 35,000 ETH (approximately $94 million) to Kraken.
"look onchain alerted its Twitter followers to a transfer of 35,000 e worth around $94 Million by the ethereum foundation to Kraken"
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Ethereum's scaling solution relies on numerous Layer 2 networks that compete with each other and the main chain for resources.
"instead we have to rely on countless layer twos that compete both with each other and the main chain for users and liquidity"
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Competition among Ethereum Layer 2 solutions has driven transaction fees to near zero.
"the result is a race to the bottom that's brought Layer Two transaction fees close to zero"
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Bitcoin spot ETFs had $5 billion in net inflows within their first month of trading.
"one month after their launch [Bitcoin ETFs] $5 billion in the green"
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Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately $500 million in their first month.
"eth ETFs were a net negative with outflows around $500 million"
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While non-grayscale ETH ETFs gained $2.1 billion in their first month, outflows from ETH E ($2.5 billion) resulted in a net negative for all ETH ETFs.
"the non-grayscale ETFs added $2.1 billion worth of Assets in their first month but they just couldn't keep Pace with the outflows from ethe which reached $2.5 billion"
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On their 20th day of trading, GBTC's AUM fell 24%, while ETH E's AUM fell 30%.
"gbtc assets under management had fallen by around 24% whereas eth's assets under management had fallen by 30%"
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Ethereum's price dropped by an additional 15% in the three days following the Ethereum Foundation's transfer to Kraken.
"eth did fall by another 15% within the first 3 days of the ethereum foundation's transfer"
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Ethereum rallied to a resistance level of approximately $3,550 prior to the July 23rd ETF launch.
"eth rallied into a resistance level of around $3,550 on The Daily time frame"
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It was not surprising to see Ethereum's price decline in the initial days following its ETF launch.
"it was no great shock to see eth dumping in the first few days of trading"
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One week after its ETF launch, Ethereum was down approximately 9%.
"a week after the launch eth was down around 9%"
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Ethereum's price decreased by 40% between the ETF launch on July 23rd and August 5th.
"it fell by 40% between the ETF launch on July 23rd and August 5th"
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Grayscale's Ethereum ETF (ETH E) experienced significant outflows concurrently with other market pressures.
"grayscales eth E was also experiencing significant outflows at this time"
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Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs accelerated Bitcoin's rally to new all-time highs, sooner than anticipated.
"spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provided rocket fuel for Bitcoin to Rally to new all-time highs much sooner than had been expected"
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In their first month, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $500 million.
"the eth ETFs were a net negative with outflows around $500 million"
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Non-grayscale Ethereum ETFs saw $2.1 billion in new assets under management during their first month.
"the non-grayscale ETFs added $2.1 billion worth of Assets in their first month"
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Outflows from Grayscale's Ethereum ETF (ETH E) totaled $2.5 billion in its first month.
"the outflows from ethe which reached $2.5 billion"
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Bitcoin spot ETFs successfully absorbed selling pressure from GBTC and recorded $5 billion in net inflows in their first month.
"Bitcoins spot ETFs managed to absorb all of gbtc cell pressure and still in their first month $5 billion in the green"
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The Ethereum chart indicates that increased demand for ETH from Layer 2 adoption has not yet materialized.
"the eth chart suggests it hasn't happened yet [demand trickle down from L2s]"
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A significant upward price movement in Ethereum could render current negative factors irrelevant.
"one big green candle in the future could make all of these facts seem completely irrelevant"
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A strong crypto market rally is expected this year or next, which will also impact Ethereum's price positively.
"whether it's this year or next crypto will rally a hard again and eth will too"
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Ethereum is unlikely to outperform newer cryptocurrencies in the next market rally.
"yes it's unlikely to outperform other newer shinier old coins"
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The July launch of Ethereum spot ETFs became a significant 'sell the news' event with lasting impact.
"the launch of the spot eth ETFs in July turned into a sell the news event with serious legs"
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A key feature missing from Ethereum ETFs, compared to direct ETH holdings, is the ability to stake.
"the eth ETFs do not have a staking mechanism"
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Non-grayscale Ethereum ETFs attracted $2.1 billion in assets during their initial month of trading.
"the non-grayscale ETFs added $2.1 billion worth of Assets in their first month"
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Outflows from Grayscale's Ethereum ETF have exceeded the combined inflows of all other Ethereum ETFs.
"it's also true that grayscales ETF outflows have eclipsed all of the inflows of other ETFs combined"
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In their first month, Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $500 million.
"the eth ETFs were a net negative with outflows around $500 million"
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Grayscale's ETH ETF has performed similarly to, but worse than, Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF.
"eth e has mimicked the performance of gbtc only worse"
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Outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum ETF are occurring at a faster pace than those from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF after its launch.
"the rate of eth E outflows is significantly faster than outflows from gbtc post launch"
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Within 20 days of their respective launches, GBTC's AUM decreased by 24%, while ETH E's AUM decreased by 30%.
"gbtc's assets under management had fallen by around 24% whereas eth's assets under management had fallen by 30%"
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On the 20th trading day after launch, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw its assets under management decrease by approximately 24%.
"on the 20th day of Trading Post launch gbt's assets under management had fallen by around 24%"
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On the 20th trading day after launch, Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH E) saw its assets under management decrease by 30%.
"eth's assets under management had fallen by 30%"
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Prior to the ETH ETF launch, ETH rallied to $3,550, forming a second lower high since its March yearly peak.
"eth rallied into a resistance level of around $3,550 on The Daily time frame and this proved to be a second lower high formed since the yearly high back in March"
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The price decline of Ethereum in the days immediately following its ETF launch was expected.
"it was no great shock to see eth dumping in the first few days of trading"
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Approximately 9% lower a week after its ETF launch, Ethereum's price declined.
"a week after the launch eth was down around 9%"
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Ethereum's price experienced a 40% drop between July 23rd and August 5th, following its ETF launch.
"it fell by 40% between the ETF launch on July 23rd and August 5th"
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The Ethereum Foundation's transfer of ETH is for treasury management, covering a $100 million annual budget for grants and salaries, some of which require Fiat payment.
"this is part of our treasury management activities EF has a budget of around $100 million per year which is largely made up of grants and salaries and some of these recipients are only able to accept in Fiat"
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The Ethereum Foundation stated its intention to sell its ETH holdings incrementally, not in a single large dump.
"the foundation intended to sell incrementally rather than dumping all 355,000 eth at once"
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Ethereum's price dropped an additional 15% in the three days after the Ethereum Foundation's transfer to Kraken.
"eth did fall by another 15% within the first 3 days of the ethereum foundation's transfer"
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The $94 million transfer by the Ethereum Foundation is considered insignificant compared to Ethereum's daily global trading volume of typically over $5 billion.
"$94 million is A Drop in the Ocean when compared to the global trading volume for eth which rarely Falls below $5 billion per day"
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Ethereum's core technology limits its ability to compete with newer, higher-performing blockchains.
"ethereum's ability to keep up with the more performant competition is seriously constrained by its Tech"
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Ethereum's scaling strategy relies on numerous Layer 2 solutions that compete for users and liquidity against each other and the mainnet.
"instead we have to rely on countless layer twos that compete both with each other and the main chain for users and liquidity"
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Intense competition among Ethereum Layer 2 solutions has driven transaction fees down to nearly zero.
"the result is a race to the bottom that's brought Layer Two transaction fees close to zero"
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The optimistic outlook for Layer 2 solutions is that their speed and low costs will drive mass adoption, leading to significant user growth and revenue generation.
"the bull case for l2s is that they speed and low cost will facilitate Mass adoption there will be so many new users and transactions that the low fees will generate decent revenue"
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Mass onboarding of new users to Ethereum via Layer 2 solutions is expected to eventually increase demand for ETH.
"by onboarding millions of new users to the broader ethereum ecosystem demand for eth will trickle down from the l2s"
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The current Ethereum price chart indicates that the predicted demand increase from Layer 2 adoption has not yet occurred.
"the eth chart suggests it hasn't happened yet"
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Market narratives are more likely to follow price movements than to drive them.
"narrative tends to follow price and not the other way around"
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Outflows from Grayscale's Ethereum ETF have been greater than the combined inflows of all other Ethereum ETFs.
"it's true that grayscales ETF outflows have eclipsed all of the inflows of other ETFs combined"
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Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately $500 million in their first month.
"the eth ETFs were a net negative with outflows around $500 million"
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In their first month, non-grayscale Ethereum ETFs collectively gained $2.1 billion in assets.
"the non-grayscale ETFs added $2.1 billion worth of Assets in their first month"
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Grayscale's Ethereum ETF (ETH E) saw outflows of $2.5 billion in its first month.
"outflows from ethe which reached $2.5 billion"
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Bitcoin spot ETFs successfully absorbed selling pressure from GBTC and recorded $5 billion in net inflows in their first month.
"Bitcoins spot ETFs managed to absorb all of gbtc cell pressure and still in their first month $5 billion in the green"
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A notable limitation of Ethereum ETFs is the absence of a staking mechanism, a key feature of ETH.
"the eth ETFs do not have a staking mechanism"
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The lack of a staking mechanism in ETH ETFs makes them less appealing and fails to differentiate them from Bitcoin ETFs.
"this makes the eth ETFs a little disappointing and more importantly it does little to set them apart from Bitcoin ETFs"
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Ethereum's prolonged period of underperformance is evident when examining the ETH/BTC chart.
"eth has been suffering for a long time now and you only need to look at the eth BTC chart to see this"
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Ethereum has been declining against Bitcoin for two years, breaking through key support levels.
"e has been falling against Bitcoin for 2 years and is wanting disrespecting support levels"
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Community sentiment towards Ethereum has deteriorated to the point where members are urging Vitalik Buterin to post bullish content.
"sentiment has become so bad that members of the community on crypto Twitter have resorted to begging vitalic to start bull posting"
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Aya Miyaguch Guchi, Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, stated that the transfer of ETH was part of their treasury management activities.
"the ethereum foundation's executive director Aya mayag guchi responded that quote this is part of our treasury management activities"
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Solana has been a competitor to Ethereum, offering a faster and cheaper alternative for over four years.
"we have had a slick quick and cheap ethereum killer in salana for 4 and a half years now"
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The competitive landscape has evolved to the point where there are now even faster and cheaper 'Solana killers' emerging.
"and salana has been out for so long we even have multiple Slicker quicker and cheaper salana killers"
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Ethereum's technological architecture significantly limits its capacity to match the performance of newer blockchains.
"ethereum's ability to keep up with the more performant competition is seriously constrained by its Tech"
Pending
Ethereum's scaling strategy involves numerous Layer 2 solutions that compete amongst themselves and with the main chain for users and liquidity.
"instead we have to rely on countless layer twos that compete both with each other and the main chain for users and liquidity"
Pending
The competitive environment among Ethereum Layer 2 solutions has led to transaction fees approaching zero.
"the result is a race to the bottom that's brought Layer Two transaction fees close to zero"
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The optimistic scenario for Layer 2 solutions is that their speed and low costs will enable mass adoption.
"the bull case for l2s is that they speed and low cost will facilitate Mass adoption"
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The onboarding of millions of new users to the Ethereum ecosystem via Layer 2s is expected to drive demand for ETH.
"by onboarding millions of new users to the broader ethereum ecosystem demand for eth will trickle down from the l2s"
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Current price charts for Ethereum suggest that the anticipated increase in demand from Layer 2 adoption has not yet occurred.
"the eth chart suggests it hasn't happened yet"
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Market narratives typically follow price trends rather than precede them.
"narrative tends to follow price and not the other way around"
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Ethereum's age (nearly 10 years) and the presence of numerous newer competitors contribute to its current market position.
"it's true that ethereum is almost 10 years old and has many newer competitors"
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The reliance on Layer 2 solutions is seen as a cumbersome method for scaling Ethereum's product.
"it's true that layer tws are an awkward way to scale your product"
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Grayscale's Ethereum ETF outflows have surpassed the combined inflows of all other Ethereum ETFs.
"it's true that grayscales ETF outflows have eclipsed all of the inflows of other ETFs combined"
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A significant positive price surge in Ethereum could render current negative factors and analyses obsolete.
"one big green candle in the future could make all of these facts seem completely irrelevant"
Pending
A substantial crypto market rally is anticipated this year or next, and Ethereum is expected to participate and rise accordingly.
"whether it's this year or next crypto will rally a hard again and eth will too"
Pending
In the next crypto rally, Ethereum is not expected to outperform newer, more innovative cryptocurrencies.
"yes it's unlikely to outperform other newer shinier old coins"
Pending