ilmscore | The Great Default Cycle Has Started

Predictions from this Video

Total: 6
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 6
Prediction
Topic
Status
Apollo Management predicts the start of a corporate default cycle due to higher interest rates.
"This default cycle has now begun and we're going to be seeing more defaults in the near future and the biggest reason for this is not surprisingly the higher interest rates."
Corporate Defaults
Pending
Apollo Management predicts continued increases in credit card and auto loan defaults if interest rates remain high, negatively impacting the economy.
"if interest rates stay higher for longer which is what they predict that means that we would continue to see an uptick in credit card defaults and autoone defaults which would hurt the general economy."
Interest Rates and Consumer Debt
Pending
Within the next 12-24 months, commercial real estate debt readjustments, combined with lower revenue from vacant offices and higher interest rates, are predicted to lead to more default issues for office landlords.
"in the coming 12 to 24 months as we start to see more of this commercial real estate debt come due for readjusting if you are an office landlord and your building is not producing much revenue but then your costs rise not just because of inflation but because your debt servicing costs are higher because interest rates are higher that means now you're not making enough Revenue as it is but now your expenses go up which could lead to more default issues."
Commercial Real Estate Debt
Pending
The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening, by reducing money in circulation to combat inflation, is expected to make borrowing more difficult for corporations.
"if we're starting to see less money in the economy because the Federal Reserve Bank is reducing their balance sheet they're trying to shrink the amount of dollars in circulation to fight inflation that can make borrowing a little bit more difficult because if there's less dollars out there it could be more difficult for corporations to go out and find more dollars."
Quantitative Tightening Impact
Pending
Tighter credit conditions are anticipated, making it harder for individuals and corporations to borrow money due to a reduction in available dollars.
"we're entering an environment with tighter credit conditions meaning it'll be more difficult for people and corporations to go out and borrow money because credit is tighter there's less dollars out there."
Bank Lending
Pending
Maintaining high interest rates for an extended period will lead to increased debt investment opportunities.
"if they keep interest rates higher for longer then that creates more debt investment opportunities."
Interest Rate Policy Impact on Debt Investments
Pending