ilmscore | Analyzing April Trading Reports from Students & Myself

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 7
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Luck-based trading will not be profitable in the long term.
"But if if that's all that is is just luck, then that's not going to pay off long term, right?"
Trading success
Pending
If a trader continues with a losing strategy without returning to simulator practice, they will likely experience two more months of significant losses.
"If you were with real money, definitely go back to the sim because this is not working. And you don't want to have two more months like this. No way."
Trading performance
Pending
A trader should stick with simulator trading until they achieve two consecutive profitable months, after which they can transition to live trading and gradually increase share size.
"stick with it with the sim. I hope just right now until you can have a couple green months and then once you've got a couple green months then it's like okay now I go live and start to size up."
Trading progression
Pending
After a couple of months of strong performance in a simulator, a trader will gain significant confidence, feeling prepared to transition to live trading with real money.
"So if this was sim I would say okay you know a couple months like this and you're going to have a lot of confidence. So if you flip the switch and go live with real money you're going to be like all right I know what I'm I know what I'm doing."
Trader confidence
Pending
A trader is statistically unlikely to be profitable if they have a negative profit/loss ratio and an accuracy below 50%.
"It's statistically you shouldn't be green with a negative prephalos ratio and poor accuracy below 50%."
Trading profitability
Pending
Based on recent performance (last 30 days), the author predicts he will lose money if he trades stocks priced above $20 or below $2.
"So, you could say, Ross, don't even trade anything above $20 a share...but the last 30 days was not an exception. The last 30 days I was losing money. And stocks below $2, I also don't tend to make money on."
Trading performance
Pending
Improving trading accuracy will lead to fewer losing trades, an improved profit/loss ratio, better consistency (more green days), increased confidence, which in turn encourages bigger share sizes and greater overall profitability, creating a positive feedback loop.
"if right now you're struggling with poor accuracy, your calendar is red, the first thing to focus on is improving accuracy. Because when you improve accuracy, what happens? Your accuracy goes up. Invariably, you have what? Fewer losers...your profit loss ratio is typically going to improve...What gets better? Your calendar, your consistency...now you start getting better consistency and that makes you feel confident taking more trades and taking bigger share size. And you do all that and you're making more money. And so this becomes a positive feedback loop."
Trading improvement
Pending