The stock market will be negatively affected by the US bond market's need to refinance debt by the end of 2025. If the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 5% due to the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates, it will lead to higher borrowing costs, a slowing economy, and increased inflation, creating a 'recipe for disaster'.
"The bond market's a really big focus for the United States because they need to refinance their debt. The stock market doesn't really care about it right now, but I promise you it will later down the road, especially if the 10-year continues to increase closer to 5%. It's a ticking time bomb with for the US. They need to refinance their debt by the end of the year, and they want to do it at a lower rate, but the Federal Reserve still does not cut interest rates, and they have no expectation to. So again, the more uncertainty, the higher these bonds will go, the more expensive it will be for people like you and I and the US to borrow uh money, therefore slowing down the economy, causing inflation to go up. It's it's a full recipe in my opinion for disaster."
