The Israel-Iran conflict will not escalate beyond threats and posturing as long as oil prices remain below its 'war line' (a downward sloping trend line since 2022).
"But despite all the noise, the oil price is still telling us that if you're worried about escalation, there's nothing to worry about. Oil is still trading below the war line, a downward sloping trend line of the oil price since 2022. And for as long as it does, everything you hear is just threats, posturing, and noise."
