How will the 2024 USA Elections Influence the World's Economy ?? #Face2Face with Ayesha Tariq
Published: 2024-08-16
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-16
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The US dollar is predicted to strengthen under a Republican administration.
"we'll also see a stronger dollar"
Pending
Trade wars are predicted to cause a 4% to 6% appreciation of the US dollar.
"trade Wars could actually push up the Dollar by four to 6%"
Pending
Gold is predicted to reach a price target close to $3,000.
"we have a Target close to that [3,000] as well"
Pending
Gold is predicted to be the top-performing commodity over the next 3 to 4 years (from 2024-2028).
"gold is probably the commodity of the next 3 to four years"
Pending
Gold is predicted to perform well regardless of which US administration is in power.
"gold does better I we think under either administration"
Pending
Kamala Harris was predicted to be nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate in August 2024.
"the chances are that she will be nominated"
Pending
Gold price is predicted to reach or cross $3,000.
"we have a Target close to that as well"
Pending
If Trump's proposed 10% global and 60% China tariffs are introduced, US economic prices are predicted to increase by 2.4%.
"JP Morgan did a study and they said that if both of the tariffs are introduced uh there will be an increase in prices in the economy of 2.4%"
Pending
Gold is predicted to be the leading commodity for the next 2-4 years (from August 2024).
"gold is probably the commodity of the next 3 to four years let's say or two to three years"
Pending
Under a Democratic administration, the Federal Reserve was predicted to implement four rate cuts in 2025.
"They've laid out four cuts for next year they may be able to follow that path."
Pending
Under a Democratic administration, copper demand and prices are predicted to rise due to focus on new technology, EVs, and clean energy.
"that may actually boost copper demand and Hance copper prices"
Pending
The proposed 10% global tariff and 60% tariff on China (by Trump) are not expected to be fully implemented.
"we don't think it's going to be implemented like so [10% Global tariff and 60% on China]"
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Congress, even a Republican-controlled one, is predicted to fight against Trump's proposed extreme tariffs.
"I believe it will be fought by Congress even his own Congress even if there is a republican Congress"
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Kamala Harris is predicted to be nominated as the Democratic candidate for the US presidential election in August 2024.
"the chances are that she will be nominated now"
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Donald Trump is predicted to back off from his aggressive tariff rhetoric.
"he might actually back off from the Tariff situation the way he's been talking"
Pending
The odds of a Republican sweep (President and Congress) in the upcoming US elections are predicted to decrease.
"the odds of that are now coming down"
Pending
Under a Trump presidency, the US economy is predicted to see higher growth due to fiscal spending.
"because of the fiscal spending we're likely to see higher growth there as well"
Pending
Mexico, India, and Vietnam are predicted to be major beneficiaries due to China's economic slowdown and businesses relocating from China.
"Winners are Mexico and India and Vietnam big time because of that"
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Trump's immigration policies of deporting illegal immigrants are predicted to cause a wage spiral in the US.
"taking these people out of the country might actually cause a wage spiral"
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Oil companies are predicted to perform better under a Democratic administration due to policies restricting oil supply.
"oil companies actually do better under the Democrats because they try to restrict oil"
Pending
Under a Democratic administration, copper demand and prices are predicted to increase due to a focus on new technology, EVs, and clean energy.
"that may actually boost copper demand and Hance copper prices"
Pending
If Trump's policies lead to higher inflation, the Fed is predicted to keep interest rates higher for longer.
"if we have higher inflation um there is a chance that the FED may have to keep rates higher for longer"
Pending
The Federal Reserve was predicted to implement an 'insurance' rate cut in September 2024 to ensure a soft landing before a recession.
"this year we might get a Fed cut in September... the FED will cut in September but this will be more of an insurance cut so that they can claim a soft Landing uh so they will cut before there is a recession"
Pending
The US equity market is predicted to not experience a massive relief rally immediately after the 2024 US elections.
"even after the elections we may not see that massive relief rally as we have seen in the past"
Pending
If Democrats pursue their current policies, the Fed is predicted to follow its planned path of four rate cuts in 2025.
"If the Democrats go with the policies that they're going with right now... the FED may be able to follow their path that they've laid out they've laid out four cuts for next year they may be able to follow that path"
Pending
Technology, Energy, and Utilities sectors are predicted to outperform under a Democratic administration.
"sectors that outperform is Technology Energy and utilities"
Pending
Under a Republican presidency, the US market is predicted to be higher.
"under the Republicans we might see a higher Market"
Pending
More defensive sectors are predicted to perform better under a Republican administration.
"some of the more defensive sectors actually do better"
Pending
Under a Republican presidency, the US dollar is predicted to strengthen.
"we'll also see a stronger dollar"
Pending
The ongoing market decline (as of August 2024) was predicted to continue further, followed by a period of consolidation.
"we might see this go further and so we should actually wait until it settles some consolidation"
Pending
If tariffs are implemented, global growth is predicted to slow due to companies rethinking strategies, lower profits, and lower capex.
"companies will have to start rethinking their strategies profits will be lower capex will be lower and all in all Global growth will slow"
Pending
Trump is predicted to potentially back off from his proposed tariff policies if he realizes they would lead to a stronger dollar.
"he might actually back off from the Tariff situation the way he's been talking"
Pending
The Indian equity market is predicted to significantly outperform many other global markets over the next five years (until 2029).
"our long-term view on India remains intact... in five years the Indian market will grow this is a Nob brainer but grow means outp perform many of the other countries in the world"
Pending
If China's growth declines and businesses move away, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand are predicted to suffer.
"Taiwan South Korea Thailand these are some of the countries that may actually uh suffer because people move away from dealing with China"
Pending
Under a Trump presidency, deregulation is predicted to increase oil production by 3 million barrels.
"the deregulation may actually increase production by 3 million barrels"
Pending
The Indian market was predicted to face short-term pressure on profitability in Q3 2024, recommending investors to take profits and re-enter after a pullback.
"the quarter to quarter positioning coming into this quarter was to lighten up a little bit because of um the local market profitability situation... take some profits off the table and then go in again once markets start like once the pullback happens"
Pending
Under a Harris presidency, oil restrictions are predicted to push crude oil prices higher.
"she might restrict oil which actually pushes the price of of crude higher"
Pending
Oil companies are predicted to perform better under a Democratic administration due to policies restricting oil supply.
"oil companies actually do better under the Democrats because they try to restrict oil"
Pending
A Fed rate cut is predicted in September 2024, potentially leading to a relief rally in markets.
"this year we might get a Fed cut in September and so we might see a slightly different scenario over there uh where we might see a relief you know a bit of a rally going into the FED cut"
Pending
The market is predicted to experience higher volatility and potentially no massive relief rally immediately after the 2024 US elections.
"this time however we are seeing slightly higher volatility right after the elections... even after the elections we may not see that massive relief rally as we have seen in the past"
Pending
The current market decline (as of August 2024) is predicted to continue further before settling.
"we might see this go further and so we should actually wait until it settles some consolidation"
Pending
A US recession is not predicted to be imminent. The Fed is predicted to make an 'insurance cut' in September 2024 to achieve a soft landing, cutting before a recession occurs.
"we don't think a recession is imminent the way everybody is saying it is um and the FED will cut in September but this will be more of an insurance cut so that they can claim a soft Landing uh so they will cut before there is a recession"
Pending
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is predicted to ramp up its tapering of bond purchases into 2026.
"they have talked about tapering their bond purchases so they will purchase less now and that will get lesser and lesser so the taper will be ramped up into 2026"
Pending
The Indian market is predicted to outperform many other countries globally over the next five years (from August 2024).
"in five years the Indian market will grow this is a Nob brainer but grow means outp perform many of the other countries in the world"
Pending
In Q3 2024, the Indian market is predicted to face some pressure on profitability due to rising wholesale prices and wages.
"this is going to put a little bit of pressure in terms of uh profitability on the market"
Pending
The gap between India's EPS growth and revenue growth is predicted to start narrowing due to rising wholesale prices.
"we we felt like this Gap May narrow now may start to narrow because you know the wholesale price index is also going up and stuff like that"
Pending