Published: 2024-01-03
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin is predicted to form a mid-cycle top as (or just before) interest rate cuts by the Fed begin.
"sort of the thesis that I've talked about for a long time is some type of midcycle top just as rate Cuts arrive"
Pending
If Bitcoin's weekly close falls below the 8-week moving average (which was just under $41,000 at the time of the video), it is highly likely to drop approximately 22% to the 20-week Simple Moving Average (bull market support band).
"if we break below the 8we then the 20e SME is definitely in the cards and if history is any indication breaking the 8we SMA you know if we do go down to the bullmark sport ban that's about a 22% drop"
Pending
Bitcoin's one-year Return on Investment (ROI) is predicted to decrease over the subsequent months from the video's publication.
"my guess over the next few months you will see the one-year Roi come back down"
Pending
A significant 'secondary scare' correction (approximately 50% drop, taking out a prior low) for Bitcoin was predicted to occur between Q3 2023 and H1 2024.
"I talked about it a lot that that sort of the window for it would be from Q3 of last year through about the first half of this year would sort of be that window if it's going to happen you would expect to see it happen"
Pending
If Bitcoin's 8-week moving average (around $41k) does not hold on the weekly timeframe, a pullback to the 20-week SMA (bull market support band, around $33.9k-$35.8k) is likely, potentially a 22% drop.
"if the 8we does not hold on the weekly time frame then we're likely going to the 20we SMA because that's what normally happens when the 8 week is broken you'd be hard pressed to find a time where the 8we doesn't you know break and then doesn't event eventually visit within a few percent of the bull market support band... if we break below the 8we then the 20e SME is definitely in the cards and if history is any indication breaking the 8we SMA you know if we do go down to the bullmark sport ban that's about a 22% drop"
Pending
Bitcoin has a reasonable chance to form a midcycle top around or just before the start of interest rate cuts.
"there's a reasonable chance not something to take to the bank but there's a reasonable chance that Bitcoin puts in some type of midcycle top around the time that rate Cuts begin or maybe just before rate Cuts begin"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is likely to increase during larger Bitcoin price pullbacks.
"I've said before that what you'll likely see on larger pullbacks is Bitcoin dominance going up"
Pending
Bitcoin historically experiences a 'secondary scare,' a roughly 50% correction, when least expected.
"one thing that we've historically seen is a secondary scare I have no idea if it's going to happen... what ends up happening is Bitcoin gets some type of like 50% correction just when no one's expecting it"
Pending
If a 'secondary scare' (50% Bitcoin correction) occurs, it is expected to happen between Q3 2023 and H1 2024.
"the window for it would be from Q3 of last year through about the first half of this year would sort of be that window if it's going to happen you would expect to see it happen"
Pending
Bitcoin's one-year ROI is predicted to decrease over the next few months.
"my guess over the next few months you will see the one-year Roi come back down"
Pending
If Bitcoin drops to the 20-week SMA (bull market support band), whether it holds as support will depend on the Fed achieving a soft landing; otherwise, it could fall further to retest lower levels.
"now the question of course is if we do drop to the 20we SMA would it hold as support right that's the bigger question and I think I think the answer to that will ultimately depend on if the FED achieves a soft Landing or not if the FED achieves a soft Landing then you know there's hope but if not if if they've overtightened which is a real possibility based on the context of History then you could go below that and and then you you know you could potentially come make back in and retest this level"
Pending