Published: 2024-02-22
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is predicted to first break 54-55%, then reach 56%, and eventually 60%, which will lead to altcoins aggressively bleeding against Bitcoin.
"I still think it'll go to 60 but I think that 56% level would be symbolic I mean after it gets to 56% I think 60% will probably just be a detail at that point that it'll that it'll eventually hit but I do think that it really has to first break Above This 55% 54 to 55% barrier if it does that which I think it will 56% is that Target to hit if it hits that level I think you might really start to see altcoins aggressively bleed against Bitcoin"
Pending
The terminal interest rate for the current business cycle is 5.5%.
"about two years ago I suggested that 52% was likely going to be the terminal rate of this business cycle now that we're at 5 and 1/2 per there's all sorts of predictions on on where it's going to go from here um the FED has made it fairly clear that they believe that it is sufficiently restrictive that it is the terminal rate I agree I think it is the terminal rate"
Pending
The US unemployment rate is expected to continue rising in the current cycle as long as monetary policy remains tight.
"the unemployment rate is is moving up it's above its 24mth SMA and and there's no clear sign yet that it's slowing down in a durable fashion and until we go back to looser monetary policy I I think we have to be under this you know approach of we have to wait and see right it would be premature to to say that the unemployment rate won't ever go up in this cycle before the FED starts to cut"
Pending
Job openings are predicted to continue declining until monetary policy becomes looser.
"if this [job openings] were to continue to come down which I think there's a good case to be made that it will until we go back to looser monetary policy that some some of that excess will continue to get absorbed"
Pending
Applying the Dot-Com crash analogy: the S&P 500 is projected to top out in 2024, experience a low in Q1 2025, another low in Q3 2025, and a final low below 2022 levels by October 2026.
"this is what it would look like if it were to be propagated to the current cycle and then that would mean that this low here would actually be q122 and then this low over here would be October oober of 2026 so that is what a hard Landing would look like right that's what a hard Landing that's q1 2025 this here would be Q3 2025"
Pending
If inflation re-accelerates, the S&P 500 is likely to top, leading to a new round of rate hikes.
"if inflation were to re accelerate there's a good chance that the S&P could top because it implies that we then have to go through another complete you know completely new round of rate hikes"
Pending
If Bitcoin dominance breaks 56% (corresponding to the 0.5 FIB retracement), it will signal Bitcoin is nearing a local top.
"that could change if Bitcoin dominance breaks 56% I think everyone needs to be on high alert because 56% would correspond to the 0.5 FIB retracement which is exactly where it got last cycle before Bitcoin finally hit some type of of local top"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to reach 56% and then likely continue to 60%.
"I still think it'll go to 60 but I think that 56% level would be symbolic I mean after it gets to 56% I think 60% will probably just be a detail at that point that it'll that it'll eventually hit"
Pending
If Bitcoin dominance reaches 56%, altcoins are expected to aggressively underperform Bitcoin.
"if it does that which I think it will 56% is that Target to hit if it hits that level I think you might really start to see altcoins aggressively bleed against Bitcoin"
Pending
Nvidia's price trajectory could mirror Cisco's dot-com bubble performance (massive run-up followed by a top and collapse), though not necessarily immediately.
"where Nvidia could go very similar way"
Pending
The stock market (S&P 500) is predicted to reach its top during the 2024 election year, based on historical patterns of previous hard landings.
"in all three cases we saw a market top in the election year"
Pending
If Bitcoin continues to rise without testing its 20-week SMA (after 18-19 weeks of not doing so), it is likely to experience a blow-off top around or after the halving (April 2024), or before summer 2024, followed by a larger pullback in the second half of 2024.
"if we don't test it and and Bitcoin just continues to melt higher um then you know maybe you get into the situation where you get some type of of blowoff top either around the having or after the having or or or before you know just sometime you know before the summertime or so and then you get a larger pullback going into the second half of the year"
Pending
Bitcoin was predicted to have a light pullback (not breaking prior lows) at some point, and a 20% pullback after the spot ETF approval.
"here I thought there's be going to be a pullback and there was but it was pretty light right we did not take out this low here I said there was going to be a pullback after going into the spot ETF and there was there's about a 20% pullback"
Pending
Two years prior to the video (around Feb 2022), the terminal federal funds rate for the current business cycle was predicted to be 5.25%.
"about two years ago I suggested that 52% was likely going to be the terminal rate of this business cycle"
Pending
The current federal funds rate of 5.5% is the peak for this business cycle.
"I agree I think it is the terminal rate"
Pending
The unemployment rate, having crossed its 24-month moving average, is expected to continue rising significantly in this cycle before the Fed cuts rates.
"anytime we have seen this metric the unemployment rate go above its 24mth moving average it seems like it's only a matter of time before the unemployment rate really starts to pick up and go much higher... the unemployment rate is is moving up it's above its 24mth SMA and and there's no clear sign yet that it's slowing down in a durable fashion and until we go back to looser monetary policy I I think we have to be under this you know approach of we have to wait and see right it would be premature to to say that the unemployment rate won't ever go up in this cycle before the FED starts to cut"
Pending
The Federal Reserve will maintain tight monetary policy long enough to significantly weaken the labor market, shifting it from an employee's market to an employer's market.
"the fed's going to stay tight long enough to break the labor market to really turn the tables on on the labor market and to turn it from an employees Market to an employer's Market"
Pending