Published: 2024-02-23
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Nvidia's Price to Book ratio could return to 1 within a decade from February 2024.
"while we could eventually see the Nvidia price tobook ratio back near one I mean it it could frankly take a decade to get there"
Pending
Nvidia's profit margins are likely to be compressed over a long period due to competition.
"and the margins will likely be compressed over a long enough period of time"
Pending
Nvidia stock is likely to experience a larger correction at some point.
"it just means that at some point you likely will have a larger correction"
Pending
Nvidia's one-year ROI is likely to eventually collapse, similar to Cisco's historical pattern.
"eventually we likely see something that looks like this right"
Pending
If Nvidia repeats Cisco's 696% rally from its October 2022 low (around $100), its price would reach between $800-$900 by March 2024, but not the $1000-$1100 level, potentially trapping investors.
"to give you an idea of what a 700% rally from the low would look like over 17 months it would mean Nvidia going all the way up... that would be between 8 to 900... if it were to repeat what Cisco did it means that it wouldn't actually make it all the way to a th000 and so perhaps there's a lot of people out there waiting for it to reach 1,000 or 1100 to finally sell but then it actually doesn't reach that that Milestone leaving a lot of people holding the bag"
Pending
Nvidia could theoretically dump about 90% over the 31 months following its eventual peak, similar to Cisco after its dot-com bubble top.
"after that top it then proceeded to dump about 90% over the next 31 months um and so I think that is is is something that you know it's worthwhile to remember that that could theoretically happen now"
Pending
Nvidia is predicted to have a 30% price drop around April 2024, mirroring Cisco's historical pattern of 574 days without such a drop.
"it's been about 538 days since it had a 30% drop [Nvidia]... Cisco back over here... reached 574 days before it had a 30% drop which is about two more months from now"
Pending
Nvidia is predicted to top out in the next few months from February 2024, pull back to around $500, bounce to $700, and then roll over into a deeper decline for more reasonable valuations.
"topping out sometime in the next few months I don't know exactly when I don't know exactly what price eventually coming back down to 500 finding some support around that $500 range bouncing back up to 700 um and then and then rolling over and going back to more reasonable valuations"
Pending
If Nvidia's short-term bubble risk extends to 1.5 (50% above its 20-week SMA), its price could reach $889 by March 2024.
"50% above the 20we SMA right now would actually put it at just over 800 note though that the 20we SMA is moving up relatively quickly so if we were to extend the 20we estimate out into March um and and take say like a 50% move from that level then it would correspond to 8.89 889"
Pending
If Nvidia's stock price starts to falter, it could signal a broader downturn in other aspects of the market.
"So if Nvidia starts to falter that could be signaling faltering in other aspects of the market"
Pending
The Russell 2000 is predicted to either underperform the S&P 500 by another 22% or, after a slight further decline, bounce from current levels.
"if we were to make it down there it would imply the Russell bleeding to the S&P another 22% but maybe we just bounce at the current levels right maybe the Russell goes down a little bit more um and then bounces"
Pending
A larger market downturn, impacting both high and low market cap stocks, is predicted to occur when all Magnificent 7 stocks cease to perform strongly.
"after all of them [Magnificent 7] have finally stopped performing um that's when sort of the larger turn comes and that is is where the uh sort of the lower market cap stuff goes down with the higher market cap stuff"
Pending
Nvidia's Price-to-Book ratio is predicted to eventually return to around one, potentially within a decade (by Feb 2034).
"while we could eventually see the Nvidia price tobook ratio back near one I mean it it could frankly take a decade to get there"
Pending
Nvidia's profit margins are predicted to likely be compressed over a long period due to competition.
"the margins will likely be compressed over a long enough period of time"
Pending
Nvidia's stock is predicted to experience a significant correction at some point, leading to more realistic valuations.
"at some point you likely will have a larger correction and then from that level we will get back to to more realistic valuations"
Pending
If Nvidia's stock price were to mirror Cisco's 696% rally over 17 months from its October 2022 low, it would reach between $800 and $900 by March 2024.
"to give you an idea of what a 700% rally from the low would look like over 17 months it would mean Nvidia going all the way up and I'm going to get it actually the same number 696 per. um that would be between 8 to 900"
Pending
If Nvidia's market cycle were to precisely mirror Cisco's dot-com bubble top, its stock price would not reach $1,000.
"if it were to repeat what Cisco did it means that it wouldn't actually make it all the way to a th000"
Pending
Nvidia's stock price could theoretically experience a similar post-bubble dump of approximately 90% over 31 months after its peak, mirroring Cisco's crash.
"after that top it then proceeded to dump about 90% over the next 31 months um and so I think that is is is something that you know it's worthwhile to remember that that could theoretically happen now"
Pending
If Nvidia mirrors Cisco's historical pattern of days without a significant decline, it may experience a 30% stock price drop within approximately two months from the video's publication date (Feb 2024), reaching a similar 574-day period without such a decline.
"it's been about 538 days since it had a 30% drop... Cisco... reached 574 days before it had a 30% drop which is about two more months from now"
Pending
If Nvidia's price action mirrors Cisco's post-bubble pattern, it would involve topping out within the next few months (from Feb 2024), pulling back to find support around $500, then experiencing a dead cat bounce to around $700, followed by a sustained downturn to more reasonable valuations.
"looking at Nvidia if it were to do something similar it would mean you know topping out sometime in the next few months I don't know exactly when I don't know exactly what price eventually coming back down to 500 finding some support around that $500 range bouncing back up to 700 um and then and then rolling over and going back to more reasonable valuations"
Pending
If Nvidia were to reach a short-term bubble risk level of 1.5 (50% above its 20-week SMA) by March 2024, its price would be approximately $889.
"if we were to extend the 20we estimate out into March um and and take say like a 50% move from that level then it would correspond to 8.89 889"
Pending
From a rational perspective, Nvidia's stock is predicted to experience a pullback at some unspecified future point.
"from most rational perspectives it is due for a pullback at some point"
Pending
A potential faltering in Nvidia's performance could signal broader weakness in other parts of the market.
"if Nvidia starts to falter that could be signaling faltering in other aspects of the market"
Pending