Published: 2024-03-08
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin dominance predicted to reach 56% within the next few weeks (by mid-April 2024).
"I would contend that 56% could come really quickly I mean it could even come this month maybe next month but I do think that we could be looking at at 56% dominance within the next few weeks"
Pending
Bitcoin expected to eventually break away from the altcoin market, with its final surge causing all altcoin-Bitcoin pairs to fall below their support levels.
"at some point I I imagine that Bitcoin should be able to to break away from the altcoin market and and then in that sort of that final Crescendo by Bitcoin USD it should collectively break all Bitcoin pairs below their support levels"
Pending
In Quantitative Tightening (QT) bull markets, altcoins are predicted to consistently underperform Bitcoin.
"in qtb markets altcoins normally durably underperform Bitcoin"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is expected to increase as liquidity moves towards less risky assets.
"Bitcoin dominance should go up as liquidity favors the least risky asset"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is likely to break upwards from its pattern; by September 2024, the altcoin market could be performing even worse against Bitcoin.
"it's more likely to break up than down... it certainly seems like it wants to break out so what if in six months the chart looks even more red as more altcoins just continue to bleed back to the King"
Pending
If Bitcoin dominance breaks and holds above 55.3% and then reaches 56% (the 0.5 FIB retracement), it would signal a market 'risk-off' dynamic.
"if you see dominance above 55.3 holding and then goes to 56 just know that at least last cycle...that marked the risk off Dynamic"
Pending
A Bitcoin-heavy crypto portfolio is predicted to outperform an altcoin-heavy portfolio, as Bitcoin is expected to reclaim significant market share.
"Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio is likely going to be a lot better than an ALT heavy portfolio because Bitcoin should reclaim a lot of that market share"
Pending
The ETH/BTC ratio, currently at 0.057, is likely to decline to its range low, and a durable break below 0.049 would signal a market shift.
"Will e Bitcoin slowly bleed back down so the range low...if e Bitcoin durably goes below 0.49...with eth Bitcoin still at 057 I still think that it's likely going to bleed back down"
Pending
After Gold's breakout (in early March 2024), Bitcoin's rally was expected to continue for another 1-2 weeks before a cool-off period.
"Bitcoin had you know it had another week or two before it cooled off"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to reach a local high in March or April 2024, followed by a cool-off period after the halving.
"You you could put in some type of high in March or April and and then following the having we kind of we kind of cool off for a while"
Pending
The Bitcoin market is predicted to experience significant volatility in late March and April 2024.
"the rest of March could be pretty chaotic and even April right it could be very very chaotic"
Pending
If Bitcoin's price were to mimic Gold's post-breakout rally (7-8% above prior highs), it would reach approximately $72k-$73k.
"about a 7% move from the current price would put you at around 72 around 72k 73k or so"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to continue absorbing liquidity from the altcoin market.
"Bitcoin will absorb liquidity from the altcoin market"
Pending
If Bitcoin tops out in March or June 2024 before rate cuts, it could drop 50% or more but is predicted to eventually recover; however, many altcoins would not recover and would be replaced in the next cycle.
"if we do top out in March or if we do top out in June before rate Cuts arrive...Bitcoin would take a pretty big hit and it could easily drop 50% or more...but it would eventually recover...whereas if that were to happen a lot of the altcoins would not recover and...next cycle you would just have simply a a new basket of altcoins"
Pending
If Bitcoin shows any weakness (e.g., dropping to $40k), the altcoin market is predicted to plummet even harder.
"if Bitcoin shows any weakness at all the altcoin market will plummet right...if Bitcoin were to drop back to stay like 40K I think the altcoin market would get hit a lot harder"
Pending
If Bitcoin's manic rally continues well after the halving (April 2024), into summer and Q3/Q4 2024, it is predicted to result in a 'left-translated peak' (an earlier-than-usual cycle peak).
"if we stay manic well after the having into the summer then and especially in Q3 Q4 then I think it's going to be a left translated Peak"
Pending
A market pullback is predicted within the next one to two months (by May 2024) after the current manic period ends.
"whenever this manic period is over in the next month or two I'm guessing there will be a A pullback in the market"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to rise first to 56% and then ultimately to 60%, the level where the altcoin market cap began its breakdown in the last cycle.
"dominance still needs to go to to to First 56% and then ultimately 60%...I think we're ultimately just going back up to where they broke down from 60%"
Pending
The ETH/BTC ratio is predicted to decline to 0.03-0.04, the level where its previous 'bubble' originated.
"my target for E Bitcoin is between 03 to 04 that's where I think the bubble started at 03 to 04 and that's why I think it'll go back there"
Pending
The ADA/BTC ratio is likely to decline to 800-900 sats.
"no matter what happens it's likely going to fade back into 800 to 900 sets"
Pending
If the ADA/BTC ratio fails to hold the 900 sats support level, a drop to 400 sats is predicted as inevitable.
"if it can't hold it then I think 400 is inevitable"
Pending
If the SOL/BTC ratio drops below 20,000 sats, its next target is predicted to be 12,000 sats.
"if it drops below 20,000 I think your next stop is is is 12,000 STS"
Pending
Ethereum is predicted to retain its value against Solana.
"I do think ethereum is is is um going to retain its value against salana"
Pending
Bitcoin is expected to continue exhibiting diminishing returns in its cycles, though it may eventually diverge from this pattern after a full business cycle or recession.
"I do still believe in diminished returns...I think eventually we'll go off on some different track"
Pending
If the BNB/BTC ratio forms a lower high after struggling at its resistance level, it is predicted to decline to 5,000 sats.
"if this just ends up being a lower high then I think you're just going to revisit back down here to 5,000 STS"
Pending
A significant 'risk-off' signal for altcoins will be triggered if the altcoin market cap (excluding stablecoins) divided by Bitcoin's market cap drops below 0.39.
"a big risk off signal for all Bitcoin pairs would be that if this metric goes below 3 39 right so below 39 I think it's sort of like the the warning Bells have have have started to ring"
Pending
If Blue Chip dominance (e.g., BTC + ETH dominance) durably breaks above 73%, it would imply a sustained breakdown of altcoin-Bitcoin pairs.
"blue chip dominance if it breaks 73% it would imply durably it would imply that all Bitcoin pairs are really starting to break down"
Pending
A rate cut by June 2024 (possibly May) is predicted, especially if the unemployment rate reaches 4% in April 2024.
"I could certainly see a rate cut by June you could even have a rate cut by May if if if the um if the unemployment rate next month comes in at 4%"
Pending
Inflation is predicted to continue trending downwards, albeit slowly.
"I really do think that inflation is coming back down it's just taking a long time...inflation's going to keep going down is my base case"
Pending
If all altcoin-Bitcoin pairs close below 0.39 on a weekly basis, the Federal Reserve is predicted to cut interest rates soon.
"when all Bitcoin pairs close below 04 I think the FED is going to cut soon"
Pending
The unemployment rate, currently at 3.9% and above its 24-month moving average, is predicted to continue rising rapidly, based on historical patterns.
"history shows that once it gets above the 24mth moving average with the exception of 1967 we just you know we just uh keep on going up"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to reach 56% within a few weeks from March 8, 2024, and ultimately reach 60%.
"I do think that we could be looking at at 56% dominance within the next few weeks... dominance still needs to go to to to First 56% and then ultimately 60%... I do think Bitcoin dominance will go much higher"
Pending
A final Bitcoin USD rally will cause all Bitcoin altcoin pairs to break below their support levels. Altcoins will continue to bleed value against Bitcoin until there is a shift back to quantitative easing (QE) and lower interest rates, as altcoin pairs are in a macro downtrend.
"at some point I imagine that Bitcoin should be able to to break away from the altcoin market and and then in that sort of that final Crescendo by Bitcoin USD it should collectively break all Bitcoin pairs below their support levels... fundamentally until we go back to QE and a pivot I think alss are going to bleed back to bitcoin so my bias on dominance is higher until proven otherwise... we can pretty clearly see that all Bitcoin pairs are in a macro downtrend what it means is that over a long enough period of time altcoins will bleed back to the Kink"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance will increase regardless of Bitcoin USD price movement as liquidity moves to the least risky asset during quantitative tightening (QT).
"I still think we're in the phase of the cycle where Bitcoin dominance goes up no matter the direction of of Bitcoin USD whether it goes up down sideways you name it Bitcoin dominance should go up as liquidity favors the least risky asset"
Pending
Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) will durably (weekly close) go below 0.049, implying Bitcoin will take liquidity from Ethereum.
"I'd be looking for a weekly close by eth Bitcoin below 0049 and as long as eth Bitcoin is above 0049 it still implies that there is liquidity that Bitcoin will take back"
Pending
Bitcoin will likely enter a cool-off period after reaching a high in March or April 2024, following the halving. If no cool-off occurs in the month or so following the halving (April 2024) and it stays manic into Q3-Q4 2024, it will likely experience a left-translated cycle peak (earlier than typical).
"I do think that we could certainly get a cool off period you know as especially after after the having right um You you could put in some type of high in March or April and and then following the having we kind of we kind of cool off for a while... if there's no cool off period in the next in the next month or so and you know or sort sort of following the having then you know would I would be on board with the idea of of more like a translated cycle Peak... if we stay manic well after the having into the summer then and especially in Q3 Q4 then I think it's going to be a left translated Peak"
Pending
Bitcoin price is calculated to reach $73,000 based on the natural log of price over 20-week SMA.
"if we go plug that in 44300 and we just simply solve for x that would give you a prize of $773,000"
Pending
Bitcoin dominance is predicted to continue rising until the end of 2024.
"what if the Bitcoin dominance train this cycle lasts until the end of 2024 the end of the having year"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to continue showing diminishing returns in its current cycle (fifth cycle).
"diminishing returns has been happening for four Cycles in a row now maybe cycle five will be also diminishing returns"
Pending
Following a Bitcoin cooldown period (from 70k or higher), the market will debate whether there will be another rally in 2025.
"my view is that that's going to be the next debate is you know whenever the whenever the cooldown period comes whether it's from 70k or or higher then we'll spend the next 6 months figuring out is that it or or will there be something more than that in 2025"
Pending
Bitcoin was predicted to drop below its 20-week SMA in Q3 2023, which the speaker states occurred.
"I thought that in September you know I I I said I I think that bitcoin's going to drop below its 20we ASA in Q3 of the prea year like it always does right like it always does Q3 of the preh having year it tends to always drop below its 20 moving average that's happened legitimately every single time and so I said that and I was right about it"
Pending
The Q4 2022 price low for Bitcoin could be the cycle low unless a recession with a significantly higher unemployment rate (6-7%) occurs, in which case a lower low (potentially by 2026, similar to Cisco's 2002 low) is possible.
"Q4 2022 could be the low if you don't have a recession if you do have a recession because the unemployment rate goes to like you know six or seven perc or something crazy then yeah like it's possible... even this low occurred in 20 2002 that would correspond to 2026 this cycle right it would correspond to 2026"
Pending
Bitcoin could experience a left-translated peak in 2024, rallying above $100,000, and then crash back down to $20,000 by 2026, similar to QQQ's dot-com era trajectory.
"imagine how crazy that would be if Bitcoin did that if it had a left translated Peak this year where it rallied north of 100K only then go back to 20K by by 2026"
Pending
Bitcoin is predicted to survive any coming economic downturn or 'hell' within the next one to two years.
"I think Bitcoin Will Survive whatever hell is coming for us over the next year or two right whatever hell we go into I think Bitcoin will eventually survive it"
Pending
Ethereum is not expected to flip Bitcoin in market cap, likely ever.
"I'm not in that camp like do not think ethereum will flip Bitcoin probably ever right probably ever"
Pending
Ethereum is predicted to survive a recession, as it is considered a 'blue chip' crypto asset.
"do I think eth can Survivor recession yeah I do I I do I I think that I think that it can I I I'm not sure about like a lot of altcoins but I think ethereum could... I think ethereum has a blue chip I think it would survive a recession"
Pending
Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) is predicted to fall to the 0.03-0.04 range, where its 'bubble' originally started.
"my target for E Bitcoin is between 03 to 04 that's where I think the bubble started at 03 to 04 and that's why I think it'll go back there"
Pending
Cardano/Bitcoin (ADA/BTC) is expected to fade back to 800-900 SATs; if it fails to hold 900 SATs, a drop to 400 SATs is considered inevitable.
"my view has been that no matter what happens no matter what happens it's likely going to fade back into 800 to 900 sets and from there we're going to find out who's right okay so if it can hold this trend line at 900 SATs then I'm wrong about it okay and I'd be happy to admit that but if it can't hold it then I think 400 is inevitable"
Pending
If Solana/Bitcoin (SOL/BTC) drops below 20,000 SATs, it is predicted to fall further to 12,000 SATs.
"if it drops below 20,000 I think your next stop is is is 12,000 STS"
Pending
If BNB/Bitcoin (BNB/BTC) forms a lower high at its current level, it is predicted to revisit 5,000 SATs.
"if this just ends up being a lower high then I think you're just going to revisit back down here to 5,000 STS"
Pending
Blue chip dominance will durably (weekly close) break above 73%, signaling a breakdown in all Bitcoin altcoin pairs.
"blue chip dominance if it breaks 73% it would imply durably it would imply that all Bitcoin pairs are really starting to break down... blue chip dominance still needs to get above 73"
Pending
Historically, periods considered 'soft landings' eventually lead to 'hard landings' (recessions/significant market downturns).
"there's really there's really not a thing as a soft Landing that's kind of the... 1967 was a soft Landing but we still had a top in 1968 of the election year and we still got a hard Landing right"
Pending
The labor market is transitioning from an employee's market to an employer's market, with the shift expected to be complete by 2026.
"we're sort of slowly transitioning from an employees Market to an employer Market but we're kind of in the middle of it right now um but maybe by 2026 it'll be fully shifted over to an employer Market"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain high interest rates for an extended period.
"I do think the FED is is probably going to hold rates too high for too long that's kind of my base"
Pending