The Labor Market

"last cycle it took nine months for it to play out and so far Bitcoin had a local top in March so you have April May June July only about four months in fact if it were to take the same amount of time as it did last cycle... it would mean not playing out until Q4 of this year right around the time that the unemployment rate might start to top out in terms of the un uh you know some of those metrics we were looking at earlier maybe not the unemployment rate topping out but some of the metrics reaching Extremes in terms of the rate of change"

"Bitcoin also in fact looks a lot like 2019 putting in one low after another... it didn't bottom until after the FED cut rates not before"

"because the FED hasn't lower rates we haven't gone back to QE, we're going to see the labor market continue to tighten up so I would guess this is going to curl back up and then go again"

"later this year I think could be sort of the highit time as as we as we go back and look at number of states where the unemployment rate is rising we saw it sort of top out in Q4 what if this is the Q4 that it finally makes a difference and then that's where the FED ultimately has to Pivot ahead of that"