The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator has Signaled
Published: 2024-08-03
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-03
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Som Rule recession indicator was predicted to trigger later in the business cycle (prediction made around December 2023, confirmed as triggered by July 2024 data).
"in that video we we just sort of forecasted that likely later on this business cycle that this metric would in fact trigger"
Pending
Following the Som Rule trigger, the unemployment rate is expected to continue increasing.
"normally when the unemployment rate starts to move up and triggers this the unemployment rate continues to go up"
Pending
The current behavior of the US unemployment rate is predicted to follow similar long-term patterns observed in previous business cycles, eventually entering a non-linear or parabolic phase.
"to some degree I I don't really think that this time is different"
Pending
The US unemployment rate is predicted to reach 5%.
"that's how the unemployment rate before you know it it's at 5%"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to implement rate cuts, likely in September 2024.
"I'm guessing that the FED is going to come in with some rate Cuts pretty soon you know probably in September"
Pending
There is a good chance the US will experience a recession.
"there is at least a good chance that there will be at least some type of recession"
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The potential upcoming recession is predicted to be 'somewhat different' in nature compared to historical recessions.
"I think you probably should look at this one and say it's probably going to be somewhat different than all the ones that came before it because the market evolves and it does something different"
Pending
The 'unemployed plus discouraged workers' indicator is predicted to continue its upward trend after building a base.
"unemployed plus discouraged workers I mean again a lot of these it looks like it's really building out a base down here it's starting to move higher"
Pending
The year-over-year percentage change of the Household Survey employment data is predicted to turn negative in August or September 2024 if employment does not increase significantly.
"in fact it might go negative next month because if you go if you go back a year ago in July you can see that it actually still went higher in August and September and so if this doesn't go up the next couple of months then when you look at the year-over-year percentage change it'll actually print a negative number"
Pending
The unemployment rate risk indicator is predicted to continue rising due to the quick increase in the unemployment rate.
"looking at the unemployment rate and how quickly it's starting to move up it would stand a reason that there's a decent chance that we'll continue to go higher therefore the unemployment rate risk would theoretically go higher"
Pending
The Smooth Recession Probabilities indicator is predicted to increase at the beginning of September 2024, reflecting recent unemployment rate data.
"once you know once we get the next data point for this the beginning of next month it'll probably be a bit higher because the unemployment rate we just got the unemployment rate data that actually went up quite a bit"
Pending
The Som Rule recession indicator triggering (as it did recently) reliably predicts an upcoming recession.
"Every time it's previously triggered it has resulted in a recession"
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Given the Som Rule has triggered and the unemployment rate has started to rise, the unemployment rate is predicted to continue to go up.
"normally when the unemployment rate starts to move up and triggers this the unemployment rate continues to go up"
Pending
The unemployment rate is predicted to reach 5% through an accelerated, non-linear increase (e.g., consecutive 0.2% monthly rises).
"what happens if next month you get another 0.2 and then another point2 right that's how the unemployment rate before you know it it's at 5%"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is predicted to implement rate cuts, likely starting in September 2024.
"I'm guessing that the FED is going to come in with some rate Cuts pretty soon, you know probably in September"
Pending
The number of unemployed plus discouraged workers is predicted to continue to move higher after building a base.
"unemployed plus discouraged workers I mean again a lot of these it looks like it's really building out a base down here it's starting to move higher"
Pending
The year-over-year percentage change of the household survey employment is predicted to turn negative in September 2024.
"the year-over-year percentage change of the household survey it's almost negative right it's actually at 0.35% in fact it might go negative next month"
Pending
The smoothed recession probabilities indicator is predicted to be higher with the next data point release (early September 2024), driven by the recent unemployment rate increase.
"once you know once we get the next data point for this the beginning of next month it'll probably be a bit higher because the unemployment rate we just got the unemployment rate data that actually went up quite a bit"
Pending