ilmscore | Bitcoin Risk Metric

Bitcoin Risk Metric

Published: 2024-08-31
Status: Analyzed

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Prediction
Topic
Status
Bitcoin's risk level has a chance to drop below 0.4 (possibly to 0.3) within 6 months from the video's publication date (i.e., by February 2025).
"there is still a chance that Bitcoin could go below point4 risk because again historically whenever it goes above .7 which is what it did over here it has gone to the .3 risk level you know within 6 months or so so there is a possibility that we could see that happen"
BTC
Pending
The current rally (as of August 2024) is a Bitcoin-only rally, similar to 2019, without an altcoin season due to quantitative tightening and high interest rates.
"I think that the rally we just had is more similar to a a 2019 te style quantitative tightening High interest rate environment rally where you're not seeing alt season where it's just a a more or less a Bitcoin only rally"
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics
Pending
In early 2021, the author predicted Bitcoin would likely experience a summer low after its risk metric reached the 0.9-1 band, a prediction confirmed by the author as having occurred.
"do you guys remember back in early 2021 when most people were screaming for 300K Bitcoin and I came out back then with the risk metric chart... and I said guys as much as I know everyone wants 300K to happen we're unfortunately already in the .9 to 1 rband and it's not about what I want... and so back then I said all right guys we're probably going to get a summer low and we did"
BTC
Pending
In January or February 2022, the author predicted that altcoins would be too risky and Bitcoin dominance would increase for several years.
"I put out a video I think in in January or February 2022 saying you know tips for navigating the bare Market altcoins are too risky right Bitcoin dominance is going to go up for several years"
BTC
Pending
The author suggests a possibility that Bitcoin's risk metric could reach the higher risk band (0.9-1) in 2025.
"you know what happens if something like this happens next year right where it goes up to the higher rband which is always a possibility"
BTC
Pending
Altcoins will continue to bleed value back to Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve pivots its monetary policy (cuts rates).
"those that convert Bitcoin to altcoins before the FED pivots are usually disappointed because the altcoins keep on bleeding back to bitcoin that's exactly what happened in 2019 even even even a couple of months after rate Cuts began right even about a month and a half after the First Rate cut Bitcoin dominance still went up so I think that that is what has been going on"
BTC
Pending
In March/April 2024, the author predicted that Bitcoin's risk level, after reaching 0.7-0.8, would fall to 0.4-0.5 or 0.3-0.4 within a few months, a state which the author notes has occurred by the time of the video.
"I said this back in March and April I said look guys within half a year within a few months we're probably going to be back at some of these lower risk levels in fact usually after going to the .7 to .8 rband bitcoin goes to the .3 to .4 risb you see even in 2013 it went to the .3 to .4 rban which is where we are right now"
BTC
Pending
There is a possibility Bitcoin's risk level could drop below 0.4 to the 0.3 level within approximately 6 months from the video's publication (by early 2025).
"now there is still a chance that Bitcoin could go below .4 risk because again historically whenever it goes above .7 which is what it did over here it has gone to the .3 risk level you know within 6 months or so so there is a possibility that we could see that happen"
BTC
Pending