Bitcoin: Decision Time

"this week that we are going into I believe will be the decision week for the path of Bitcoin for the rest of the fourth quarter"

"I said that this past week Bitcoin would likely not really go anywhere"

"I said you know 6 months ago then even in the lower high structure Bitcoin would likely be at 70k by October regardless"

"on average Bitcoin goes up in the fourth quarter of the having year right in fact if it doesn't do it this time it would be the first time that it hasn't done it"

"stay Bitcoin heavy until dominance hit 60% that has been my strategy for years right and we've come pretty close to 60% dominance hit 60 or uh 59.75 this past week um so it is getting pretty close to that Milestone and I don't think it makes sense to ignore what I have said um there could be a change in the markets around 60% dominance and it could overshoot 60% um but 60% has always seemed like an easy target for for Bitcoin dominance to reach"

"especially with the idea of the devaluation of ethereum uh through the end of this year"

"if Bitcoin rallies up back up here right back up near like 68 69k and then it sort of Wicks above sort of back to where this move was right back to around that level and it gets rejected again right if if there's a strong rejection off that and then back down then I think the monetary policy view will will sort of take over"

"if on the other hand Bitcoin can break out of that and really get above 70k and hold above 70k and not just a wick right a wick doesn't mean anything right but if it can hold above 70k for really any time at all right I mean even just a few a few days or a couple of weekly closes up there I think it would go a long way in distilling or sort of um making it so the monetary policy view isn't as important"

"I said back in March that Bitcoin will likely put in a lower high structure for 6 to n months 6 to n months I said it many times it's all over Twitter 6 to n months six months took us through September nine months would take us through December so there's a little bit of neutrality in my opinion at this point right because this this view has already partially been completed right 6 months has already happen happened if it is 9 months right if it is 9 months then you could get right you could get one more selloff in the market"

"if that happens then you're essentially getting another lower low which coincidentally happens to correspond to the 100 we moving average which is exactly where it corresponded to back over here in 2019"

"eth fell back into the to the wedge as rate Cuts arrived I warned about this for month months here again it fell back into the wedge as rate Cuts arrived and then it fell out of the wedge and after it fell out of the wedge eth Bitcoin finally bottomed after ethusd fell through the wedge so if you're looking at it for this cycle it could still be you know it could still be ahead of us"

"in a having year every monthly candle that was green back then has been Green in 2024 and every red candle back then has been red in 2024 it's crazy how similar it has been and you can see that it also bled in November and December in 2016 right"

"December potentially where eth finally goes home"

"keep an eye on bitcoin dominance see if it hits 60% because I do think the markets could get somewhat concerned at that point especially if it happens before the end of the year"

"I will contend that if dominance doesn't top until December then it might just be they might all just you know they might flip the switch and and do well in 2025 but if it happens before December then there could still be sort of that that intermediate period where where it does something else"

"if it comes in okay uh that would help Bitcoin more than likely if it comes in not okay right if it if it's a big move up it um it might not help Bitcoin"

"if you get a recession this cycle it might not occur as quickly just because it's probably not going to the unemployment rate is probably not going to go to 10% right as quickly as it did last cycle"

"if altcoins put in a new low this past week which they did then the altcoin Reckoning never ended right I mean how is how was this not just the same thing right a massive move up and then a bleed back down right a massive move up and then it bleed back down where everyone just keeps saying this time is different but it just keeps bleeding down and and if you guys think that these are you know I'm looking at two high market cap alts and I should be looking at the micro caps well if you look at others Bitcoin I told you guys this is likely going to sweep the low go to the bullmark sport band and then put in a lowerer low right"

"if the unemployment rate comes in really really low then you might see yields start to really surge again"

"if the fed pivoted too soon then that's also not a good thing right because that just means we might have to go back into rate hikes again at some point in the future"