Bitcoin Cliff Dwellers

"the tops either October or December unfortunately it it seems like October is the most likely outcome at this point. ... it seems like the most likely outcome is that the top is in."

"if in fact the top was October, then the low would probably be around October of 2026. ... I would start looking for signs of a major low as early as May, but I think the base case still would likely be ... October. ... I would look for a low in sort of um... between May and October, right? So that's kind of where I would look for a low and I think it will go below 70K will be my guess. ... we're about a year away from the new low. Yeah, I could see it happening in October. Maybe earlier, maybe May, but October seems like an outcome that we have to think about."

"What I would guess is that the path is ultimately going to take us down to the 200E simple moving average. ... Bitcoin revisits the 200E moving average in the coming months. Um especially further out into 2026 ... I think we'll likely see Bitcoin back at the 200E moving average, uh, sometime within the next, you know, let's call it next six, seven months or so. I mean, it could take until Q4 of 2026"

"I think what's more likely to happen is you'll have some type of counter trend rally, you know, potentially back up to the 50week moving average before you go to the 200week moving average. ... which could in fact even being back up to 100K um before then dropping maybe to the 200week moving average by the time you get out into uh 2026. ... My guess is that there will be a counter trend rally by Bitcoin before too long. I could see it happening maybe in December. ... even if you do get some type of counter trend rally, it will fail at the 50week moving average or the 200 day moving average and then go down and visit that 200E moving average sometime in 2026. ... I think you need at some point within the next couple of months, I think you need that counter trend rally back up to like the 200 day moving average andor the 50we SMA. And if it forms a lower high, which I think has to be the base case right now. ... there's still a high probability outcome where Bitcoin gets a rally back above 100K at some point. It might take until February, you know."

"whenever Micro Strategy gets that counter trend rally back up to the bull market support band, that will likely be also when Bitcoin has a counter trend rally, more than likely back up to either its 50we SMA and or the 200 day moving average."

"I mean I I think the ETH Bitcoin valuation remains in a downtrend until early December."

"98 weeks after its top in November of 2024 would actually put it in October of 2026. ... So, if Bitcoin finds a low in October 2026, that might correspond to Micro Strategy also finding a low in October of 2026. ... I think Micro Strategies stock price will continue to drop. I think there likely will be a counter trend rally to the bull market support band at some point in the coming weeks, but my guess is that it will mark a macro lower high and then it'll continue lower into the summer of of 2026."

"I still think Bitcoin dominance will break through here even though it has been temporarily rejected."

"I think gold's likely going to have a deeper correction in 2026, but I think it's going to set up for another rally uh into the end of the decade for for for precious metals um in general."

"use 2026 as a way to accumulate Bitcoin at suppressed prices if you can"

"if we close the year below 93K, then it'll be a red year."

"if Bitcoin goes back to the 200 day moving average there's a there's a chance that altcoins could then rally with Bitcoin and in some cases it could outperform bitco they could outperform Bitcoin."

"I think that ETH Bitcoin is kind of dropping into December of 2025 and then from there I think it'll likely find a low and then Bitcoin will then have a counter trend rally. ... I see a scenario where ETH Bitcoin bottoms out early December, right around the time the Fed potentially cuts rates. And then if Bitcoin can get a counter trend rally back up to the 200 day moving average, then Ethereum could could run with it and maybe even outperform Bitcoin during that time. But I I do think that'll be the last move of ETH Bitcoin uh for the cycle a after that."

"there does exist a scenario where Ethereum drops all the way back down here before going back up"

"if it does I think the odds of a new all-time high significantly diminish."

"A new high in 2026. Show me a new high and I'll shut up about the four-ear cycle."

"my guess is that the macro headwinds that we face that the crypto markets face is going to continue into mid 2026."

"If Bitcoin gets two weekly closes below the 50week moving average, I think a lot of altcoins will unwind because that will be further confirmation that the bare market has started ... So, I think alts will unwind against Bitcoin as we go into December. ... I think you're going to see all Bitcoin pairs unwind. ... I don't think altcoins would follow, I think Bitcoin would kind of be on its own. ... if Bitcoin confirms the bare market again with another weekly close below the 50we moving average, then I think that altcoins would very much unwind"

"you might get an alt season, but what if it doesn't happen until 2028, right? ... alt sort of their interest waines into 2026 maybe it picks back up again in 2027 2028."