How The Fed Could Crash The Stock Market‼️
Published: 2024-08-27
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2024-08-27
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
During the next market crash (predicted 2025-2027), top-tier tech stocks will not retest their 2022 crash lows: Meta (META) below $88, Shopify (SHOP) below $25, or Netflix (NFLX) below $170-185.
"you won't see Meta back at 88 bucks you won't see Shopify back at 25 bucks you won't see Netflix back at what I think Netflix went down to like $185 $170 something like that you won't see those for tech stocks ever again for those top tier companies"
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The Federal Reserve is predicted to start cutting interest rates in September 2024, with two cuts expected by the end of 2024.
"the cuts are going to likely start in September and we're going to let likely get I would say two cuts this year"
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Following initial Federal Reserve rate cuts (late 2024 into 2025), commodity prices, including crude oil (WTI), natural gas, and lumber, are predicted to rise substantially.
"because they start cut they start cutting rates Commodities start to rise substantially... WTI starts going up rapidly next thing you know you go to fill up your car with a with you know uh 10 gallons of gas and it's much more expensive than the previous year right and natural gas prices all start to go up Lumber starts to go up"
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The US consumer will be negatively impacted by a resurgence of inflation in 2025.
"the consumer starts to get destroyed Again by inflation in 2025"
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is predicted to rise back above 3%, potentially reaching 3.5% to 4% in Q2 or Q3 of 2025.
"you start seeing cpis back over three again going up to 35 starting to approach approach a 4% number"
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The Federal Funds Rate is predicted to drop from approximately 5.5% to 3% by August 2025.
"the FED goes from you know where we're at right now close to 5.5% fed funds rate all the way down to let's say 3% or you know somewhere around 3% at this time next year"
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The S&P 500 is predicted to experience a rapid 15-20% drop, likely in 2025, if the scenario of renewed inflation and consumer weakness plays out.
"You'd see 15 20% drop in the S&P 500 fast"
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Real estate prices are predicted to begin declining, with a continued downward trend into 2026, due to increasing inventory and consumer weakness.
"real estate started going down because inventory starts piling up... real estate price is headed in 2026"
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Corporate earnings are predicted to decline rapidly in the second half of 2025.
"corporate earnings start following rapidly in let's say the back half of 2025"
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The unemployment rate is predicted to rapidly increase to 5%, then to 6-7%, potentially in late 2025 or early 2026, as a consequence of economic tightening.
"unemployment next thing you know it hits 5% and then quickly it hits 6% 7% right"
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A market crash is predicted to occur sometime between 2025 and 2027.
"in this next crash whenever that happens by the way whether that's 2025 2026 2027 whenever the next crash comes we we will have a crash promise you that"
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Many tech stocks are predicted to drop by 20-40% during the next market crash (predicted 2025-2027).
"you'll see a lot of those tech stocks go down you know 20 30 40% in the next crash"
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Following a hard landing/market crash, the Federal Funds Rate is predicted to remain below 1% for several years.
"we would be on fed funds rate under 1% for years to go in the future years to go"
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In the event of a market crash, real estate prices in many markets are predicted to decrease by 10-30%.
"real estate in a lot of markets would get hit I can tell you 10 20 maybe even 30% in a lot of markets"
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Following a significant market crash and real estate price drop, mortgage rates are predicted to become available in the 3% or 4% range.
"you're able to get mortgage rates in the threes again or fours"
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Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in September 2024, with two cuts expected by the end of 2024.
"the cuts are going to likely start in September and we're going to let likely get I would say two cuts this year"
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Commodities are predicted to rise substantially following Federal Reserve rate cuts.
"because they start cut they start cutting rates Commodities start to rise substantially"
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The US consumer is predicted to be severely impacted by inflation again in 2025.
"the consumer starts to get destroyed Again by inflation in 2025"
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Lumber prices will increase, leading to reduced margins for home builders.
"Lumber starts to go up right which suddenly means the home builders margins start to get hit"
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Federal Reserve is predicted to begin worrying about inflation again in Q2-Q3 2025.
"the Federal Reserve starts to worry about inflation again in the second quarter and third quarter of 2025"
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CPI inflation rate is predicted to rise back to the 3.5-4% range.
"you start seeing cpis back over three again going up to 35 starting to approach approach a 4% number"
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Federal funds rate is predicted to drop from approximately 5.5% to around 3% by August 2025.
"the FED goes from you know where we're at right now close to 5.5% fed funds rate all the way down to let's say 3% or you know somewhere around 3% at this time next year"
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S&P 500 index is predicted to experience a rapid 15-20% decline.
"You'd see 15 20% drop in the S&P 500 fast"
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Real estate prices in many markets are predicted to drop by 10-30%.
"real estate in a lot of markets would get hit I can tell you 10 20 maybe even 30% in a lot of markets"
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Banks are predicted to significantly tighten their lending practices.
"the banks start getting very very tight with lending"
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Corporate earnings are predicted to decline rapidly in the second half of 2025.
"corporate earnings start following rapidly in let's say the back half of 2025"
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The unemployment rate is predicted to rapidly increase to 5%, then quickly to 6-7%.
"unemployment next thing you know it hits 5% and then quickly it hits 6% 7%"
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Commodities are predicted to crash massively once the unemployment rate reaches 5-7%.
"Commodities are going to start crashing back down in a massive way when unemployment also goes from 5 to 6% to 7%"
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Consumer relief from falling commodity prices is not expected until 2026.
"the Commodities going down that would start to be reflected in terms of helping out the consumer really until 2026 again"
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The Federal Reserve is predicted to enter panic mode and rapidly cut interest rates to zero.
"the FED would be in full scale panic mode they would have to cut rates to zero rapidly"
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A stock market crash is predicted to occur in 2025, 2026, or 2027.
"whether that's 2025 2026 2027 whenever the next crash comes we we will have a crash promise you that like we always have crashes"
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Many tech stocks are predicted to drop by 20-40% during the next market crash.
"you'll see a lot of those tech stocks go down you know 20 30 40% in the next crash"
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The federal funds rate is predicted to remain below 1% for several years following the market crash.
"we would be on fed funds rate under 1% for years to go in the future years to go"
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Unemployment rate is predicted to peak at 6-7% or potentially exceed 10% (comparable to the Great Financial Crisis).
"maybe we top out an unemployment rate of 6 or 7% maybe we go to great financial crisis type numbers 10% plus"
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Mortgage rates are predicted to fall back to the 3-4% range.
"you're able to get mortgage rates in the threes again or fours"
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